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  • #361
  • Sep 10, 2021 4:39pm Sep 10, 2021 4:39pm
Quoting Replicant
Ok all fine for me. Wrapping up ECB : => Statement : hawkish, shift in guidance by slowing down PP => Macro Projections : hawkish via revisions up in GDP & Inflation => Q/A highlights : Mainly, - walking on eggs, trying to downplay their tapering decision (trying to make the shift as smooth as possible for markets) - but at the same time, talking about new taper discussions in October for a decision in December
Despite the boring flow in EURUSD, still sticking to my FA plan here.

Only spoiler would be FED adding fuel to the tightening expectations at next FOMC on 22nd but that's quite unlikely as last Jobs report flop very badly. The only important release before the meeting is next tuesday CPI release. It has marked its peak already (and today's PPI showed its peak is behind as well), and expectations are for another cooler print.

CPI's overshoot would really need to be super big, considering the jobs report, to change FED's plans (as for now : tapering in December).


Ok for the flows now :

=> on W1

Red, but bullish candle : last week's break up point (1.180x) from the lows held to the tick and the whole week, price has only traded inside last week's break up candle.

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=> on D1

D1 is still in HH/HL sequence. Needs Monday to know if we have a LH.
The thing I don't like is that the break down point at 1.185x (the break down from the last HH) has capped the flow today very easily.
I don't know if buyers are just waiting for an uneventful CPI print next tuesday before pulling the trigger.

In any case, Map on D1 unchanged :

D1 Bottom 1.171x <==> D1 Flip 1.194x <==> D1 Top 1.222x

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=> on H4

H4 Flip 1.180x has floored the flow the whole week, nice, but as seen above, only shy attempts to go up from there

Map :

H4 Bottom 1.174x <==> H4 Flip 1.180x <==> H4 Top 1.188x

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The whole 1.17 handle is pretty much packed with plenty of supports,
mainly 1.176x on W1, 1.174x on H4, 1.171x on D1

MM to do if we get a dip in that handle
  • #362
  • Sep 13, 2021 11:48am Sep 13, 2021 11:48am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} ... Ok for the flows now : => on W1 Red, but bullish candle : last week's break up point (1.180x) from the lows held to the tick and the whole week, price has only traded inside last week's break up candle. {image} => on D1 D1 is still in HH/HL sequence. Needs Monday to know if we have a LH. The thing I don't like is that the break down point at 1.185x (the break down from the last HH) has capped the flow today very easily. I don't know if buyers are just waiting for an uneventful CPI print next tuesday before pulling the trigger....
Quoting Replicant
{quote} ... The whole 1.17 handle is pretty much packed with plenty of supports, mainly 1.176x on W1, 1.174x on H4, 1.171x on D1 MM to do if we get a dip in that handle
Lol, a quick dip in 1.17 handle to clean all scalpers and now only swingers are remaining.

After the bullish candle on W1, main W1 support 1.176x reacted the tick.

=> Tracking 1.180x for the D1 close, the usual suspect discussed all last week. That would make a very bullish one on D1. Uneventful (inline/undershoot or slight overshoot) US CPI tomorrow and finally ECB normalization flows can start .

=> 1.194x, 1.200x, 1.211x for the ST swing and much much higher for the MT swing 1.245x, 1.272x, 1.319x

Side note for FA & TA addict :

Have you noted that the break up point from the big break up candle on Jackson Hole day (27th) has floored the flow ?
(Jackson Hole day = FED hinting not tapering before (at least) eoy)

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  • #363
  • Sep 14, 2021 7:41am Sep 14, 2021 7:41am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} ..... => Tracking 1.180x for the D1 close, the usual suspect discussed all last week. That would make a very bullish one on D1. Uneventful (inline/undershoot or slight overshoot) US CPI tomorrow and finally ECB normalization flows can start . => 1.194x, 1.200x, 1.211x for the ST swing and much much higher for the MT swing 1.245x, 1.272x, 1.319x Side note for FA & TA addict : Have you noted that...
And here we go in EURUSD :

=> 1.180x held yesterday
=> US CPI undershoot

TA & FA aligned

====> ECB normalization flows can start


Quoting Replicant
... H4 Bottom 1.174x <==> H4 Flip 1.180x <==> H4 Top 1.188x {image} The whole 1.17 handle is pretty much packed with plenty of supports, mainly 1.176x on W1, 1.174x on H4, 1.171x on D1 MM to do if we get a dip in that handle
Res @ 1.188x on H4 but TF to follow for the ST swing is D1 now


Quoting Replicant
...=> 1.194x, 1.200x, 1.211x for the ST swing and much much higher for the MT swing 1.245x, 1.272x, 1.319x ...

First target 1.194x
  • #364
  • Sep 14, 2021 7:52am Sep 14, 2021 7:52am
WATCH OUT for the momentum leg in EURUSD
  • #365
  • Sep 16, 2021 4:49am Sep 16, 2021 4:49am
Out on a tick below last lows

TA wise, below : 1.174x (H4 Bottom) and 1.171x (D1 Bottom). Will try again from 1.171x if we go there.

FA wise, still thinking all is cooked. Jobs report flop & Inflation cooling in the US imply an uneventful or less hawkish FOMC next week, while EZ, hit by the same inflation wave US had in the beginning of the summer, has already started tapering. Next EZ inflation release in 2 weeks on Oct 1st (marked yellow in FF calendar ffs).
  • #366
  • Sep 20, 2021 4:42am Sep 20, 2021 4:42am
EURUSD trading the bottom of the ST and MT range now

The whole leg down in EURUSD these last 2 weeks coincide with the leg down in US Equities

Hands selling Equities and cashing (ie. buying) Dollar are the driver of current flow, not monetary policies

As soon as equities have a floor, EURUSD will find one simultaneously.

This week's FOMC will do the job, as said above.
  • #367
  • Sep 21, 2021 7:16am Sep 21, 2021 7:16am
Quoting Replicant
Out on a tick below last lows TA wise, below : 1.174x (H4 Bottom) and 1.171x (D1 Bottom). Will try again from 1.171x if we go there. FA wise, still thinking all is cooked. Jobs report flop & Inflation cooling in the US imply an uneventful or less hawkish FOMC next week, while EZ, hit by the same inflation wave US had in the beginning of the summer, has already started tapering. Next EZ inflation release in 2 weeks on Oct 1st (marked yellow in FF calendar ffs).
Quoting Replicant
EURUSD trading the bottom of the ST and MT range now The whole leg down in EURUSD these last 2 weeks coincide with the leg down in US Equities Hands selling Equities and cashing (ie. buying) Dollar are the driver of current flow, not monetary policies As soon as equities have a floor, EURUSD will find one simultaneously. This week's FOMC will do the job, as said above.
EURUSD ST & MT Bottom holding, fingers in the nose, so far.

No floor yet though TA wise (bar on H1 ; right on D1 Bottom 1.171x btw, what a coincidence).

EURUSD needs to sail above 1.176x on H4 & 1.180x on D1 to start to build one in these TF.

=> Expectings these levels to cap the flow very easily till FOMC,before an unchanged/less hawkish FED, as discussed above, allows the swing to the top of the ST range.

1.171x ==> 1.180x ==> 1.194x ==> 1.200x ==> 1.211x is the ST swing

break up of 1.183x is the early heads up, pointing to markets leaving range trading for swing trading

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  • #368
  • Sep 21, 2021 8:27am Sep 21, 2021 8:27am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Regarding EURTHB, I just pulled the trigger for the MT/LT swing , a very very long play/ride hopefully Bought EURTHB @ 34.8x TP1 36.8x TP2 39.0x STP 33.8x {image} insane call
Any chokdeeeeeeeee farang around ?

Was an insane call indeed. Swing trading .

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Important Monthly close coming in EURTHB, a break of 39.1x will unlock LT Top with min target 42.4x

=> EURTHB is on the brink to trade back pre-ECB QE1 range via inflation forecasts in EZ
  • #369
  • Sep 21, 2021 10:42am Sep 21, 2021 10:42am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} {quote} EURUSD ST & MT Bottom holding, fingers in the nose, so far. No floor yet though TA wise (bar on H1 ; right on D1 Bottom 1.171x btw, what a coincidence). EURUSD needs to sail above 1.176x on H4 & 1.180x on D1 to start to build one in these TF. => Expectings these levels to cap the flow very easily till FOMC,before an unchanged/less hawkish FED, as discussed above, allows the swing to the top of the ST range. 1.171x ==> 1.180x ==> 1.194x ==> 1.200x ==> 1.211x is the ST swing break up of 1.183x is the early heads up, pointing to markets...
EURUSD 1.171x
  • #370
  • Sep 21, 2021 2:41pm Sep 21, 2021 2:41pm
All loaded & all locked for tomorrow FOMC.

FA wise :

For the 1st time since a while, FED is not under pressure for this meeting via inflation, as latest figures showed peak is behind and inflation is cooling, although still high. On Top, it has found some extra margin for its loosening policy thanks to last job report which flop very badly.

=> In short, last US macro gave FED time.


TA wise :

=> For the dovish case :

Quoting Replicant
{quote} ... before an unchanged/less hawkish FED, as discussed above, allows the swing to the top of the ST range. 1.171x ==> 1.180x ==> 1.194x ==> 1.200x ==> 1.211x is the ST swing ...
ST swing to the top of the ST range is the play :

1.171x ==> 1.180x ==> 1.188x ==> 1.194x ==> 1.200x ==> 1.211x

(and probaly much much higher for the MT swing as said earlier, if EZ inflation overshoot again next Oct 1st)

=> For the hawkish case :

In case of a surprise, continuation down to ==> 1.162x ==> max 1.149x before EZ inflation comes and short circuit the flow.

===================================================================================


All loaded & locked for the dovish case. Natural Stop a handful of pips below MT lows. Targets all above.

Amor Fati now. Nothing to do. FED decides.

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  • #371
  • Sep 21, 2021 5:47pm Sep 21, 2021 5:47pm
Quoting Replicant
All loaded & all locked for tomorrow FOMC. FA wise : For the 1st time since a while, FED is not under pressure for this meeting via inflation, as latest figures showed peak is behind and inflation is cooling, although still high. On Top, it has found some extra margin for its loosening policy thanks to last job report which flop very badly. => In short, last US macro gave FED time. TA wise : => For the dovish case : {quote} ST swing to the top of the ST range is the play : 1.171x ==> 1.180x ==> 1.188x ==> 1.194x ==> 1.200x ==> 1.211x (and probaly...
Love your analysis
  • #372
  • Sep 22, 2021 6:29am Sep 22, 2021 6:29am
Quoting Replicant
All loaded & all locked for tomorrow FOMC. FA wise : For the 1st time since a while, FED is not under pressure for this meeting via inflation, as latest figures showed peak is behind and inflation is cooling, although still high. On Top, it has found some extra margin for its loosening policy thanks to last job report which flop very badly. => In short, last US macro gave FED time. TA wise : => For the dovish case : {quote} ST swing to the top of the ST range is the play : 1.171x ==> 1.180x ==> 1.188x ==> 1.194x ==> 1.200x ==> 1.211x (and probaly...
Have you done your FOMC Homework ?

Last FED statement (July 28th FOMC) reviewed

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  • #373
  • Sep 22, 2021 7:15am Sep 22, 2021 7:15am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Have you done your FOMC Homework ? Last FED statement (July 28th FOMC) reviewed {image} {image}
Have you done your FOMC Homework - II ?

Q meeting ... Last FED Projections (June 16th FOMC) reviewed :

----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

  1. GDP 7% in 2021 3.3% in 2022

    ==> since then : 1 release on GDP q/q, first reading 6.5% (consensus was 8.5%) confirmed with second reading at 6.6%. Final number to come by eom.

 

  1. Unemployment rate 4.5% in 2021 3.8% in 2022

    ==> since then :

    July report : NFP 850K (strong release, inline with expectations), unemployment rate 5.9% (flop)
    August report : NFP 943K (strong release, inline), unemployment rate 5.4%
    September report : NFP 235K (BIG FLOP), unemployment rate 5.2%

 

  1. PCE inflation 3.4% in 2021 2.1% in 2022
    Core PCE inflation 3% in 2021 2.1% in 2022

    ==> since then, Core PCE

    June release : 0.5% m/m
    July release : 0.4% m/m
    August release : 0.3% m/m

    ==> Core CPI :

    July release : another insane 0.9% m/m (0.9% as well for CPI),
    August release : 0.3% m/m (0.5% for CPI)
    September release : 0.1% m/m (0.3% for CPI)

 

  1. Dot plot :

    They have become very irrelevant to me following 2019 JP statements on these projections.
    For what is worth :
    5 for 1 hike and 2 for 2 hikes in 2022

  • #374
  • Sep 22, 2021 1:09pm Sep 22, 2021 1:09pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Have you done your FOMC Homework ? Last FED statement (July 28th FOMC) reviewed {image} {image}
Statement :

=> acknowledging slowdown in recovery because of delta variant (dovish)
=> on QE : "If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted" (looks hawkish but was in the air and no clear statement for the forseeable future given ; in short, a preemptive comment for later in the year ; neutral change to me)
  • #375
  • Sep 22, 2021 1:16pm Sep 22, 2021 1:16pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Have you done your FOMC Homework - II ? Q meeting ... Last FED Projections (June 16th FOMC) reviewed : ---------------------------------------------------------------------- GDP 7% in 2021 3.3% in 2022 ==> since then : 1 release on GDP q/q, first reading 6.5% (consensus was 8.5%) confirmed with second reading at 6.6%. Final number to come by eom. Unemployment rate 4.5% in 2021 3.8% in 2022 ==> since then : July report : NFP 850K (strong release, inline with expectations), unemployment rate 5.9% (flop) August report : NFP 943K (strong release,...
Projections :

GDP
revised down to 5.9% from 7% for 2021
revised up to 3.8% from 3.3% for 2022

Unemployment rate
revised up to 4.8% from 4.5% for 2021
unchanged at 3.8% for 2022

(Core PCE) Inflation
revised up to 3.7% from 3% for 2021
revised up to 2.3% from 2.1% for 2022

=> overall, projections dovish via GDP & jobs, hawkish via inflation

dot plot
+1 for +25bp in 2022
+1 for +50bp to 2022

=> irrelevant
  • #376
  • Sep 22, 2021 1:22pm Sep 22, 2021 1:22pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Statement : => acknowledging slowdown in recovery because of delta variant (dovish) => on QE : "If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted" (looks hawkish but was in the air and no clear statement for the forseeable future given ; in short, a preemptive comment for later in the year ; neutral change to me)
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Projections : GDP revised down to 5.9% from 7% for 2021 revised up to 3.8% from 3.3% for 2022 Unemployment rate revised up to 4.8% from 4.5% for 2021 unchanged at 3.8% for 2022 (Core PCE) Inflation revised up to 3.7% from 3% for 2021 revised up to 2.3% from 2.1% for 2022 => overall, projections dovish via GDP & jobs, hawkish via inflation dot plot +1 for +25bp in 2022 +1 for +50bp to 2022 => irrelevant
=> press conference coming to gauge where FED sits between dovish outlook on jobs/growth, and hawkish outlook on inflation

=> also to track, if JP let in the air the tapering thing or decide to pull the trigger and get factual
  • #377
  • Sep 22, 2021 1:52pm Sep 22, 2021 1:52pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} {quote} => press conference coming to gauge where FED sits between dovish outlook on jobs/growth, and hawkish outlook on inflation => also to track, if JP let in the air the tapering thing or decide to pull the trigger and get factual
Did it. I'm out.
  • #378
  • Sep 22, 2021 3:37pm Sep 22, 2021 3:37pm
Quoting Replicant
... TA wise : => For the dovish case : {quote} ST swing to the top of the ST range is the play : 1.171x ==> 1.180x ==> 1.188x ==> 1.194x ==> 1.200x ==> 1.211x (and probaly much much higher for the MT swing as said earlier, if EZ inflation overshoot again next Oct 1st) => For the hawkish case : In case of a surprise, continuation down to ==> 1.162x ==> max 1.149x before EZ inflation comes and short circuit the flow. ===================================================================================...
Falling in hawkish case implies the continuation down discussed the other day ie. :

==> 1.162x ==> max 1.149x

EZ inflation (Oct 1st), only FA event able to stop the flow
  • #379
  • Sep 23, 2021 4:37am Sep 23, 2021 4:37am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Falling in hawkish case implies the continuation down discussed the other day ie. : ==> 1.162x ==> max 1.149x EZ inflation (Oct 1st), only FA event able to stop the flow
1.173x first decent res
I have pulled the trigger to the short side

Very risky as it's trading both ST & MT Bottoms,
Tight stop, just a few pips above yesterday FOMC high

Short 1.173x TP1 1.162x TP2 1.155x STP 1.176x

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  • #380
  • Sep 23, 2021 10:58am Sep 23, 2021 10:58am
Trying a Short GBPJPY 151.40 TP 150.40 STP 152.0

151.4x last break down point ...
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