The 2021 Bitcoin supply shortage | Page 7 | Crypto Craft

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Sentiment tracker (2021) 2 replies

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The 2021 Bitcoin supply shortage

  • #121
  • Apr 27, 2021 9:57pm Apr 27, 2021 9:57pm
Is that a dead-cat bounce on the daily?!?
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  • #122
  • Apr 29, 2021 2:56pm Apr 29, 2021 2:56pm
If this thing breaks below 50K again I don't think it's coming back.
  • #123
  • Apr 29, 2021 7:57pm Apr 29, 2021 7:57pm
Quoting Goat
If this thing breaks below 50K again I don't think it's coming back.
If this thing breaks below 50K, I'll be topping up! 40K would be nice
Emotional Control. Process, not outcome.
  • #124
  • Apr 30, 2021 12:51am Apr 30, 2021 12:51am
Not looking like a dead cat anymore. Looks more like a recovery and rocket to $100K.
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Dear Lord, did I just sell my emergency stash for half price? Am I destine to be a pitiful BTC hater?!?
  • #125
  • Apr 30, 2021 9:42am Apr 30, 2021 9:42am
Quoting Goat
Not looking like a dead cat anymore. Looks more like a recovery and rocket to $100K. {image} Dear Lord, did I just sell my emergency stash for half price? Am I destine to be a pitiful BTC hater?!?
Dip your toes back in the water! Still plenty of upside from here and a new tax efficient option to trade BTC coming Monday.
  • #126
  • May 1, 2021 8:18am May 1, 2021 8:18am
Quoting BTCmailman
{quote} Dip your toes back in the water! Still plenty of upside from here and a new tax efficient option to trade BTC coming Monday.
I try to avoid markets right after they whoop my ass.
  • #127
  • May 2, 2021 10:43pm May 2, 2021 10:43pm
Quoting Goat
I'm putting the odds at 80% that the rally is over, ie we're not going to see $70K this year.
Putting it at a coin-flip now. The fact that buyers were so brave on that dip tells me this thing has legs, but then I harp again on the question: who's left to buy? I'm missing something about BTC these days, so I guess it's fitting that I have no position.
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  • #128
  • May 3, 2021 10:27pm May 3, 2021 10:27pm
Actually, that turned into a head fake.
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  • #129
  • May 4, 2021 3:39pm May 4, 2021 3:39pm
If BTC keep moving off Coinbase at the rate they have over the last 5 months, the exchange will have 0 BTC left to sell in 454 days.

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78.3% of the Bitcoin supply is either lost or held by wallets that have no history of selling. This is what conviction paired with absolute scarcity looks like.

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Money = Labour coupons
  • #130
  • May 4, 2021 9:10pm May 4, 2021 9:10pm
I will have totally misread BTC if breaks $70K. If that happens I have a clue on how I went wrong:
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BTC differs from other securities, commodities, and Beanie Babies in that it's globally accessible. I'm having a hard time finding a historical equivalent. BTC's global nature and easy access could be ingredients for the mother of all bubbles. If that's what's going on we could probably add another trillion to the market cap before she blows.
  • #131
  • May 4, 2021 9:18pm May 4, 2021 9:18pm
Quoting TMR
If BTC keep moving off Coinbase at the rate they have over the last 5 months, the exchange will have 0 BTC left to sell in 454 days.
Are we looking at customer deposits here? Sounds like you're saying more about how much Coinbase sucks than you are about BTC price.

Quoting TMR
78.3% of the Bitcoin supply is either lost or held by wallets that have no history of selling. This is what conviction paired with absolute scarcity looks like. {image}
There are several ways to interpret that stat, and most point to the fact that BTC has little utility.
  • #132
  • May 8, 2021 3:06am May 8, 2021 3:06am
Is she going for it?!?!
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  • #133
  • May 8, 2021 10:23am May 8, 2021 10:23am
Quoting Goat
Are we looking at customer deposits here? Sounds like you're saying more about how much Coinbase sucks than you are about BTC price.
Yes. Customer deposits continue to outflow from Coinbase. This chart in reinforcing the supply shortage argument.

Quoting Goat
There are several ways to interpret that stat, and most point to the fact that BTC has little utility.
Bitcoin's utility is store of value. The narrative of this chart if that BTC investors are diamond hand hodlers with no intention of selling which adds to the supply shortage.
Money = Labour coupons
  • #134
  • May 10, 2021 9:28pm May 10, 2021 9:28pm
Quoting TMR
{quote} Yes. Customer deposits continue to outflow from Coinbase. This chart in reinforcing the supply shortage argument.
Sounds more like investors are starting to realize that Coinbase sucks. I can't believe anyone trades with them when Kraken charges a fraction of the fees and acts like a proper broker.

Quoting TMR
Bitcoin's utility is store of value.
The problem with that argument is you're projecting forward in time. If Bitcoin holds it's value and is accepted worldwide for the next 10 years, then yes, it had utility as a store of value. But that utility does not exist today. Today it's highly speculative and thinly accepted.

With that said, I do agree BTC has a good chance of becoming a store of value. I just think that value is inflated right now. I'm might even buy back in when we get to $30K.
  • #135
  • May 12, 2021 11:19pm May 12, 2021 11:19pm
Quoting Goat
{quote} Putting it at a coin-flip now. The fact that buyers were so brave on that dip tells me this thing has legs, but then I harp again on the question: who's left to buy? I'm missing something about BTC these days, so I guess it's fitting that I have no position. {image}
I'm back on my theory that BTC is headed for the $30Ks, with 80% probabilities. Those stubborn buyers had me questioning my analysis.
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  • #136
  • May 15, 2021 12:04am May 15, 2021 12:04am
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  • #137
  • May 15, 2021 1:27am May 15, 2021 1:27am
People are moving away from BTC to ETH.

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At least to previous level with red line. All see that... Why keep BTC?
  • #138
  • May 16, 2021 2:14pm May 16, 2021 2:14pm
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  • #139
  • May 16, 2021 3:31pm May 16, 2021 3:31pm
Uh oh, Elon completed his Crypto 101 course.
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  • #140
  • May 16, 2021 4:27pm May 16, 2021 4:27pm
Quoting joyny
People are moving away from BTC to ETH. {image} At least to previous level with red line. All see that... Why keep BTC?
No, observe what happened today. The market segment moves as a bloc, just as all the other segments do. Bitcoin is the dog that wags the tail. However apparently it was just MuskCo(in) all along and when he pulled his support, all the true believers fled? I guess we'll see.
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