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Sentiment tracker (2021) 2 replies

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The 2021 Bitcoin supply shortage

  • #101
  • Mar 9, 2021 3:29pm Mar 9, 2021 3:29pm
Bitcoin infrastructure sure is coming together. This is the kind of headline we dreamed about back in the days when Jamie Dimon was shitting on crypto.
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  • #102
  • Apr 20, 2021 2:51am Apr 20, 2021 2:51am
The 2021 rally is looking like some soggy bread.
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That's what we get when all the potential buyers are already bought in. Dimon, Saylor, Musk, Lohan -- they're all stacked to the brim. Nobody left to buy, and lots of nervous parties ready to sell.

The most positive scenario I can see is $50K becomes the new $10K.
  • #103
  • Apr 21, 2021 12:05am Apr 21, 2021 12:05am
This Venmo news should be pushing BTC higher.

I'm putting the odds at 80% that the rally is over, ie we're not going to see $70K this year.
  • #104
  • Apr 21, 2021 1:02am Apr 21, 2021 1:02am
Quoting Goat
This Venmo news should be pushing BTC higher. I'm putting the odds at 80% that the rally is over, ie we're not going to see $70K this year.
I kindly disagree sir. There are 8 Bitcoin ETF pending with the SEC with a final reject or approved deadline in November for 3 of them. We still have a lot of running room IMO.
Money = Labour coupons
  • #105
  • Apr 21, 2021 10:20am Apr 21, 2021 10:20am
Quoting TMR
{quote} I kindly disagree sir. There are 8 Bitcoin ETF pending with the SEC with a final reject or approved deadline in November for 3 of them. We still have a lot of running room IMO.
The ETF story was exciting when it would bring BTC to the masses, but at this point the masses already have access and are heavily long. Even Robinhood allows crypto trading. So who do you expect these ETFs to bring to the market?
  • #106
  • Apr 21, 2021 10:38am Apr 21, 2021 10:38am
Quoting Goat
This Venmo news should be pushing BTC higher. I'm putting the odds at 80% that the rally is over, ie we're not going to see $70K this year.
I am kind of 50-50 here, but I would disagree that $50K is the new $10K. I would think the bottom in a bear case would be closer to $40K.
  • #107
  • Apr 21, 2021 1:41pm Apr 21, 2021 1:41pm
Quoting Goat
{quote} The ETF story was exciting when it would bring BTC to the masses, but at this point the masses already have access and are heavily long. Even Robinhood allows crypto trading. So who do you expect these ETFs to bring to the market?
We are still quite far from mainstream adoption. A Bitcoin ETF will allow major institutional investors the ability to gain exposure to BTC.
Money = Labour coupons
  • #108
  • Apr 21, 2021 2:18pm Apr 21, 2021 2:18pm
Quoting TMR
{quote} We are still quite far from mainstream adoption.
What exactly do you mean by "adoption"? Using it as a currency? Currency usage does not lead to currency appreciation.

Quoting TMR
Bitcoin ETF will allow major institutional investors the ability to gain exposure to BTC.
Huh?? Any grandpa can buy BTC through any number of brokers, Paypal, Venmo, etc etc. If grandpa can do it, you can bet institutions are running into no hurdles. They're already long, as evidenced by the $1T market cap.
  • #109
  • Apr 21, 2021 3:17pm Apr 21, 2021 3:17pm
Quoting Goat
{quote} What exactly do you mean by "adoption"? Using it as a currency? Currency usage does not lead to currency appreciation. {quote} Huh?? Any grandpa can buy BTC through any number of brokers, Paypal, Venmo, etc etc. If grandpa can do it, you can bet institutions are running into no hurdles. They're already long, as evidenced by the $1T market cap.
You're right...and very funny!
  • #110
  • Apr 21, 2021 4:11pm Apr 21, 2021 4:11pm
Quoting Goat
{quote} Huh?? Any grandpa can buy BTC through any number of brokers, Paypal, Venmo, etc etc. If grandpa can do it, you can bet institutions are running into no hurdles. They're already long, as evidenced by the $1T market cap.
ETFs mean retirement money coming in which is massive. The masses aren't making large crypto purchases using Paypal & Venmo. Most people are still learning about the space and starting to see past the dark web/criminal reputation.

And institutional money is not in the space like it will be when ETFs are approved. You underestimate the restrictions at most of these places, and even after ETF approval there won't be a mad rush in. They'll dip their toes in the water until they can get comfortable with BTC and realize the boogeyman isn't real.
  • #111
  • Apr 21, 2021 10:16pm Apr 21, 2021 10:16pm
Quoting BTCmailman
{quote} ETFs mean retirement money coming in which is massive.
Fair point.

TMR says November is when we hear something on that front?

Quoting BTCmailman
The masses aren't making large crypto purchases using Paypal & Venmo.
True, but I don't think currency usage will play a factor in the price (it's the other way around -- price stability promotes currency usage). Bitcoin is clearly a value-store in 2021, not a currency. The BTC dev community puts little focus on transaction speed, which to me signals they aren't even trying to make it a currency.

I think we can ignore anything currency related when looking at the BTC trade right now. This thing is huge beanie baby, ie only a well-timed exit will make money.

Btw, if you're looking for the guys trying to make an actual currency, check out BSV.
Quoting BTCmailman
And institutional money is not in the space like it will be when ETFs are approved. You underestimate the restrictions at most of these places, and even after ETF approval there won't be a mad rush in. They'll dip their toes in the water until they can get comfortable with BTC and realize the boogeyman isn't real.
Fair points and a solid bull case. I guess I'm thinking it won't even make it that far.

I'm not looking beyond 2021, btw. Whatever happens this year will likely determine the future of BTC, so no point in looking past it.
  • #112
  • Apr 21, 2021 10:43pm Apr 21, 2021 10:43pm
I'm not the only brave soul!
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Although he's much braver for attaching his name to the call.
  • #113
  • Apr 22, 2021 9:03am Apr 22, 2021 9:03am
Quoting Goat
{quote} True, but I don't think currency usage will play a factor in the price (it's the other way around -- price stability promotes currency usage). Bitcoin is clearly a value-store in 2021, not a currency. The BTC dev community puts little focus on transaction speed, which to me signals they aren't even trying to make it a currency. I think we can ignore anything currency related when looking at the BTC trade right now. This thing is huge beanie baby, ie only a well-timed exit will make money. Btw, if you're looking for the guys trying to make...
Agree with you on currency vs store-of-value but I do think it will have staying power as a store-of-value (I saw beanie babies in Walgreens the other day! ). As for BSV, they'll be competing directly with CBDCs. I don't see how that's a good thing for BSV? Also if we're saying price stability promotes currency usage (agree 100%) and BSV will be a widely used currency doesn't that mean there's limited upside in price? What's the incentive for me to put my capital there now?

Quoting Goat
{quote} TMR says November is when we hear something on that front?
Potentially earlier unless they delay or outright reject in the next few weeks https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/18/were...e-yet-cio.html
  • #114
  • Apr 22, 2021 2:42pm Apr 22, 2021 2:42pm
Quoting BTCmailman
Also if we're saying price stability promotes currency usage (agree 100%) and BSV will be a widely used currency doesn't that mean there's limited upside in price? What's the incentive for me to put my capital there now?
Good question!

I bought my original BTC position back when it was under $1K. My premise was "this thing will be a currency one day!". Very few investors shared my view so I knew price had a lot of upside potential. Every new investor that came to share my view would buy in and pushed the price higher.

BTC never became a currency, but I still made a fortune because it became a beanie baby.

Back to BSV. Craig Wright and co. are in the same position BTC was in ten years ago. They're making a currency, but there are very few investors who believe in it.

The difference between BTC and BSV in 2021 is that investors believe in BTC and they don't believe in BSV. If we want price appreciation, we have buy ahead of other investors, and BSV gives us that opportunity while BTC does not.
  • #115
  • Apr 22, 2021 9:39pm Apr 22, 2021 9:39pm
Quoting Goat
I'm putting the odds at 80% that the rally is over, ie we're not going to see $70K this year.
I'm raising the odds to 85%.
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This is getting into margin-call waterfall territory.
  • #116
  • Apr 22, 2021 11:02pm Apr 22, 2021 11:02pm
I'm seeing a vision in my crystal ball: BTC is headed to the $30Ks and will hang there for several months. That's a 50% retracement on the Oct-Mar move.
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  • #117
  • Apr 23, 2021 12:15am Apr 23, 2021 12:15am
Just put most of my emergency stash up for sale. I'll buy it back later.
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  • #118
  • Apr 25, 2021 5:28am Apr 25, 2021 5:28am
Still feeling good about the trade. Maxxed out my balls on that one.
  • #119
  • Apr 26, 2021 2:13am Apr 26, 2021 2:13am
Even feeling good in the face of this rally. Looks like a last gasp to me.
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I suspect this week will leave me feeling like a genius or a paranoid idiot.
  • #120
  • Apr 26, 2021 10:58am Apr 26, 2021 10:58am
Quoting Goat
Even feeling good in the face of this rally. Looks like a last gasp to me. {image} I suspect this week will leave me feeling like a genius or a paranoid idiot.
I too agree this looks a bear rally. Perhaps would top out close to 53500 or 55500 and then head back down towards 47500 or below and languish for a while.
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