Menu
Sister Sites

Options

Bookmark Thread

First Page First Unread Last Page Last Post

Printable Version

Similar Threads

Is anyone going to IC Markets Seychelles on March 2021? 28 replies

DAX Futures March 2021 1706 replies

2021 28 replies

In 2021, day trading in Germany will be dead 352 replies

Attachments: The 2021 Bitcoin supply shortage
Exit Attachments

The 2021 Bitcoin supply shortage

I got some lines in the water...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2e0fa67dbf8be3444bef16bf058b89bf.png Size: 52 KB
Quoting Goat
we got sellers at $40K!!!
Who is selling at $40K? I have a hunch...

We know the sellers are whales from the stabbing price action. We know they're sitting at 40K, and we know that's twice the size of 20K.

Based on this, my guess is that the sellers are the hedge funds that bought at 20K. They're seeing a 100% return in a matter of weeks and shrewdly banking the win.
Quoting Goat
I got some lines in the water... {image}
Nice Photoshop job on your DOGE orders
The market has revealed the positions -- buyers at 30K, seller at 40K.

I'm still sitting patiently on the river bank. I'm not selling for anything less than $39,250 and I got all year to wait.
  • Post #25
  • Quote
  • Jan 25, 4:36am (43 hr ago) Jan 25, 4:36am (43 hr ago)
I'm settled on this view of BTC...

  1. Bitcoin is a bubble.
  2. The bubble didn't pop at $40K.
  3. The bubble will get bigger.
  4. I don't want to be around when this thing pops.


By that model the exit doors are $40K and $50K.

  • Post #26
  • Quote
  • Jan 25, 5:15pm (30 hr ago) Jan 25, 5:15pm (30 hr ago)
We should be back near $40K this week if I'm properly understanding this market.
Attached Image
  • Post #27
  • Quote
  • Jan 25, 9:18pm (26 hr ago) Jan 25, 9:18pm (26 hr ago)
Interesting theory. A supply shortage could explain why the volume levels have not seen exponential growth during this rally - something we saw in spades during 2017. While volumes are just barely at an ATH right now the price velocity on that volume is really something.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 0c3a02f0ff48143cd763330839fc7a29.png Size: 65 KB
careful not to step in a pile of it
  • Post #28
  • Quote
  • Jan 26, 1:22am (22 hr ago) Jan 26, 1:22am (22 hr ago)
Quoting bulltrap
Interesting theory. A supply shortage could explain why the volume levels have not seen exponential growth during this rally - something we saw in spades during 2017. While volumes are just barely at an ATH right now the price velocity on that volume is really something. {image}
Sweet analysis! Who's the data source on the volume?

I love seeing the supporting data, but look at this price! We're about to test $30K again let's hope these buyers step in!!
Attached Image
  • Post #29
  • Quote
  • Jan 26, 9:27am (14 hr ago) Jan 26, 9:27am (14 hr ago)
Quoting Goat
{quote} Sweet analysis! Who's the data source on the volume? I love seeing the supporting data, but look at this price! We're about to test $30K again let's hope these buyers step in!! {image}
The data was pulled from yahoo finance, they have an easy excel data dump.

Based on price movement alone it does look like we are entering another long, steady price decline. I very rarely like to make decisions based on price but bitcoin is a pretty unique animal. From my experience, it moves in an opposite pattern to what we expect from the stock market. It falls slowly over long periods and corrects upward very fast.
careful not to step in a pile of it
  • Post #30
  • Quote
  • Jan 26, 3:06pm (8 hr ago) Jan 26, 3:06pm (8 hr ago)
I'm starting to feel the same thing Bulltrap. We probably built good support at 30K, but this rally is over. 40K was our high, and now we bounce around 30K until the next Paypal-esque news drops.

Sure hope that's wrong, but seems the right way to trade this.

Quoting bulltrap
The data was pulled from yahoo finance
You know what they say... yahoo in, yahoo out!

It's probably accurate enough though, and it probably was a supply shortage we were seeing on the way to 40K. I guess they loosened some coins with rich prices... I know I was ready to dump my position.

Quoting bulltrap
it moves in an opposite pattern to what we expect from the stock market
Hmm so instead of flash crashes we get flash mobs.
  • Post #31
  • Quote
  • Jan 26, 7:58pm (4 hr ago) Jan 26, 7:58pm (4 hr ago)
Quoting Goat
You know what they say... yahoo in, yahoo out!
Nice dad joke.
  • Post #32
  • Quote
  • Last Post: Jan 26, 8:06pm (3 hr ago) Jan 26, 8:06pm (3 hr ago)
Quoting cryptocow
{quote} Nice dad joke.
0 traders viewing now