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  • #161
  • May 20, 2020 2:21pm May 20, 2020 2:21pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} That's the maps I have in GBPJPY : D1 Map Bears still have the upper hand in this TF {image} H4 Map We are sitting more or less at the flip in this TF TA wise, this TF looks neutral 131.5x is a fresh valid sell with stop a few pips above last breakdown candle, let's say 132.2x, for targets @ 130.6x, 130.3x (bottom) and 129.8x (extrem) For bulls, 130.3x is the "cheapest" entry to go long (H4 bottom), 130.6x is decent while 131.4x is very aggressive entry {image} I don't trade this pair usually , thinking a bit out loud If you agree D1 drives...
Good call rep, 131.58 proving to be res and my trailing stop line is now above the price which is an encouraging sign, I closed out earlier today to open shorts in the Dow, I had to go out so decided to close all today, especially WTI which has been a pain to trade, good luck on your trade, Detector.
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #162
  • May 20, 2020 2:52pm May 20, 2020 2:52pm
Just to clarify, I'm out of the position, the thicker blue line is my trailing line, the first time price went through I was in the trade and closed out, notice price is back below the same line and showing supp & res, partly the reason for asking your thoughts, the bearish scenario you created I acted on (thanks) and it could be coming around again, (not that I'm advocating any position) I'm not in ATM, thanks for taking the time.
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I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #163
  • May 20, 2020 3:36pm May 20, 2020 3:36pm
Quoting detector
Just to clarify, I'm out of the position, the thicker blue line is my trailing line, the first time price went through I was in the trade and closed out, notice price is back below the same line and showing supp & res, partly the reason for asking your thoughts, the bearish scenario you created I acted on (thanks) and it could be coming around again, (not that I'm advocating any position) I'm not in ATM, thanks for taking the time. {image}
Well done with your trades.

For oil, on the supply side we have, as main drivers and in no particular order : a serial elections hacker, a bloodthirsty dictator and a clown. That's enough to put me on the back foot.
  • #164
  • May 20, 2020 3:48pm May 20, 2020 3:48pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Well done with your trades. For oil, on the supply side we have, as main drivers and in no particular order : a serial elections hacker, a bloodthirsty dictator and a clown. That's enough to put me on the back foot.
Like it and thank you, oil certainly been a tricky one of late hence my move over to forex, my main market was oil, gold (my broker suspended gold trading for the time being) and the indexes, the odd currency, the Dow took my shirt because I became too complacent, I took an opportunist profit and it worked, I tried for better runs and all was over in a flash, sorry for the biography, bytheway, GJ res & sup on my chart has now gone out too 131.78 & 131.45, good luck for you too, I can see you do your homework.
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #165
  • May 20, 2020 4:28pm May 20, 2020 4:28pm
Quoting Replicant
USDTHB failed to clear last target (33.5x) of a large swing up from 30.5x and looks set to retrace to 32.1x, 31.6x and 31.2x (best value's entry is @ 32.5x) {image}
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Chokdeeeeeee !First target in USDTHB cleared@ 32.18 from 32.5x LT break up 32.144 ready for a test. I don't expect it to hold, EOM is far away. {image}
Little update in Thailand Baht :

32.1x couldn't hold the flow as expected. Second target @ 31.6x is now within shooting distance.
Entry @ 32.5x was pretty good, zero drawdown so far.

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  • #166
  • May 20, 2020 4:37pm May 20, 2020 4:37pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} In contrast, EURTHB has still a lot of room to the upside as MT & LT points to 39.xx FA wise, LT reversal looks a done deal as expectations for WW tourism back to normal are only in 1Y or 2Y. On Top, historically, US FED is usually Thai CB's benchmark which says a lot as FED has by far the loosest monetary policy in the world (only Risk holds USD at current levels) TA wise, price has already drawn a MT reversal whose break up (34.8x) point has been succesfully tested (bought). Current value (35.0x) is already a valid entry on D1. On W1,...
Regarding EURTHB, I just pulled the trigger for the MT/LT swing , a very very long play/ride hopefully

Bought EURTHB @ 34.8x TP1 36.8x TP2 39.0x STP 33.8x

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insane call
  • #167
  • May 20, 2020 4:51pm May 20, 2020 4:51pm
Gold is ready to drop
Master your mind. Master Trading.
  • #168
  • May 20, 2020 8:42pm May 20, 2020 8:42pm
Trying again to jump on the (fast) train in EURUSD

1.0959 is very last fresh breakup on H4 , expensive entry but valid.
From the beginning, all possible entries were expensive, only micro/shallow retraces in the swing so let's see if it keeps the same momentum

Long filled @ 1.0959 TP1 1.105x TP2 1.115x STP 1.085x


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  • #169
  • May 21, 2020 7:38am May 21, 2020 7:38am
Quoting Replicant
Trying again to jump on the (fast) train in EURUSD 1.0959 is very last fresh breakup on H4 , expensive entry but valid. From the beginning, all possible entries were expensive, only micro/shallow retraces in the swing so let's see if it keeps the same momentum Long filled @ 1.0959 TP1 1.105x TP2 1.115x STP 1.085x {image}
1.0959 held flawlessly to the tick :

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micro/shallow retraces continue to be the norm in that swing, only expensive entries
  • #170
  • May 21, 2020 9:05am May 21, 2020 9:05am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} ES struggling again today to take that 297x {image} {image}
ES failed again to take that 297x yesterday (4th attempt if i'm right)

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Today, bulls bought heavily 2941, which is last fresh break up on H4, let's see if it can give them the momentum to take finally 297x

If they fail again to take it after heavily buying that 2941, that will be very bad news for them and I will look for shorts in the area.
If they manage to take it, that will unlock high of the breakdown candle (on D1 chart) @ 303x where I have a pending sell

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  • #171
  • May 21, 2020 10:05am May 21, 2020 10:05am
Quoting Replicant
Trying again to jump on the (fast) train in EURUSD 1.0959 is very last fresh breakup on H4 , expensive entry but valid. From the beginning, all possible entries were expensive, only micro/shallow retraces in the swing so let's see if it keeps the same momentum Long filled @ 1.0959 TP1 1.105x TP2 1.115x STP 1.085x {image}
engulfing in the making on H4 in EURUSD, hinting profit taking and pointing to 1.090x/1.089x, close all @ 1.0944
-15pips

max drawdown = - 22 pips
max drawup = + 50 pips

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  • #172
  • May 21, 2020 12:28pm May 21, 2020 12:28pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} ES failed again to take that 297x yesterday (4th attempt if i'm right) {image} Today, bulls bought heavily 2941, which is last fresh break up on H4, let's see if it can give them the momentum to take finally 297x If they fail again to take it after heavily buying that 2941, that will be very bad news for them and I will look for shorts in the area. If they manage to take it, that will unlock high of the breakdown candle (on D1 chart) @ 303x where I have a pending sell {image}
Bulls look again powerless to take 297x in ES

I've pulled the trigger :

Sold ES @ 2955 TP1 2889 TP2 2839 TP3 2809 STP 2995
  • #173
  • May 21, 2020 1:28pm May 21, 2020 1:28pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} ES failed again to take that 297x yesterday (4th attempt if i'm right) {image} Today, bulls bought heavily 2941, which is last fresh break up on H4, let's see if it can give them the momentum to take finally 297x If they fail again to take it after heavily buying that 2941, that will be very bad news for them and I will look for shorts in the area. If they manage to take it, that will unlock high of the breakdown candle (on D1 chart) @ 303x where I have a pending sell {image}
Hello Rep, I've opened a speculative short on the Dow, thinking it could be a struggling market, a little precarious/risk but figure not all glittering is gold, are you still in GJ, how is/did it perform, Detector
24521.5
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #174
  • May 21, 2020 1:46pm May 21, 2020 1:46pm
Quoting detector
{quote} Hello Rep, I've opened a speculative short on the Dow, thinking it could be a struggling market, a little precarious/risk but figure not all glittering is gold, are you still in GJ, how is/did it perform, Detector 24521.5
Then we are aligned in US equities now ;-)

Yes I'm still in GBPJPY, it has barely moved so far. If equities trigger risk off that should make it via JPY, otherwise I will wait for GBP's weakness, only spoiler is upcoming BOJ but risk is known so, at worst, that will end as a good try to get in synch with the pair.
  • #175
  • May 21, 2020 2:03pm May 21, 2020 2:03pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Then we are aligned in US equities now ;-) Yes I'm still in GBPJPY, it has barely moved so far. If equities trigger risk off that should make it via JPY, otherwise I will wait for GBP's weakness, only spoiler is upcoming BOJ but risk is known so, at worst, that will end as a good try to get in synch with the pair.
We certainly are, can see you have profit targets to meet and move stops (think I have it right) whereas I'm more opportunist, (new trader profit syndrome) but this is deliberate, in and out, quite often the trade can gift the return quite quick, tried the long game but it's not suiting me, hope all works out.
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #176
  • May 21, 2020 2:07pm May 21, 2020 2:07pm
Speaking of profit targets, have a possible 24310 if it moves, will be looking for min BE+ to move my stop
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #177
  • May 22, 2020 12:13am May 22, 2020 12:13am
Quoting detector
Speaking of profit targets, have a possible 24310 if it moves, will be looking for min BE+ to move my stop
PT was hit with no move to BE+,
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #178
  • May 22, 2020 7:24am May 22, 2020 7:24am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} engulfing in the making on H4 in EURUSD, hinting profit taking and pointing to 1.090x/1.089x, close all @ 1.0944 -15pips max drawdown = - 22 pips max drawup = + 50 pips {image}
1.090x/1.089x in EURUSD

1.089x is reversal point on H4

New attempt here to try to ride a swing to the top of the ST range :

Long bought @ 1.089x TP1 1.099x TP2 1.105x TP3 1.115x STP 1.079x

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Quoting detector
{quote} We certainly are, can see you have profit targets to meet and move stops (think I have it right) whereas I'm more opportunist, (new trader profit syndrome) but this is deliberate, in and out, quite often the trade can gift the return quite quick, tried the long game but it's not suiting me, hope all works out.
Well whatever it works, I do scalp too. Well done with your trade in DJ.
  • #179
  • Edited 8:09am May 22, 2020 7:38am | Edited 8:09am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} That's the maps I have in GBPJPY : D1 Map Bears still have the upper hand in this TF {image} H4 Map We are sitting more or less at the flip in this TF TA wise, this TF looks neutral 131.5x is a fresh valid sell with stop a few pips above last breakdown candle, let's say 132.2x, for targets @ 130.6x, 130.3x (bottom) and 129.8x (extrem) [...] I pulled the trigger here @131.5x to walk the talk let's see what happens Sold GBPJPY 131.5x TP1 130.6x TP2 130.3x and TP3 129.8 STP 132.2x
first target 130.6x was hit in GBPJPY from 131.5x

+ 90 pips

Trailing stop @ BE 131.5x now

Max drawdown = -40 pips
Max drawup = +90 pips

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  • #180
  • May 22, 2020 8:45am May 22, 2020 8:45am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Bulls look again powerless to take 297x in ES I've pulled the trigger : Sold ES @ 2955 TP1 2889 TP2 2839 TP3 2809 STP 2995
This is where we are in ES now
It has extended (slightly) the lows in the 290x but didn't break down.
PA wise, a break there unlock a retrace to 283x.

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