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  • #41
  • Mar 2, 2020 3:51pm Mar 2, 2020 3:51pm
Timing wise & FA wise :

=> initial swing via ST FED cut expectations (we are there) : min 1.114x max 1.133x

=> retrace swing via ECB (slight) expectations/facts measures. I've just seen ECB statement but, well, they run out of ammo, there is not a lot to expect (compared to FED). FED to set the trend, ECB to provide the ebbs and flows. Perfect, timing wise, as ECB meeting comes before FOMC : min 1.101x max 1.083x

=> impulsive swing : uptrend resumes via further rates cuts expectations on FED side (June, Sep, Dec as current implied probabilities show) : min 1.164x max 1.191x
  • #42
  • Mar 3, 2020 9:29am Mar 3, 2020 9:29am
50bp FED cut but that is not news, that's just a

Quoting Replicant
As it stands, FED cuts implied probabilities : => Probability(50bp cut in March) = 100% That will set EURUSD max rates differential down from 1.75% to 1.25% => Probability(25bp cut minimum in June) = 87.2% That will set EURUSD max rates differential down from 1.75% to 1.00% in June => Probability(25bp cut minimum in Sept) = 58.6% That will set EURUSD max rates differential down from 1.75% to 0.75% in September => Probability(25bp cut minimum in Dec) = 32.3% That will set EURUSD max rates differential...
=> This is what current ST flow in EURUSD was pricing in. Only timing (before March FOMC) is a surprise.

Watch out as Fact might trigger the retrace swing once knee jerk reaction on news fade away.
  • #43
  • Mar 4, 2020 8:31am Mar 4, 2020 8:31am
Quoting Replicant
50bp FED cut but that is not news, that's just a {quote} => This is what current ST flow in EURUSD was pricing in. Only timing (before March FOMC) is a surprise. Watch out as Fact might trigger the retrace swing once knee jerk reaction on news fade away.
Super checked , flawless call from 1.120x

=> Retrace swing (selling FED's cut fact & preempting (slights) ECB measures) in play

Quoting Replicant
... retrace swing via ECB (slight) expectations/facts measures [...] min 1.101x max 1.083x ...
=> Min theoretical target = 1.101x
=> Max theoretical target = 1.083x

... before the main dish : positionning for the impulsive swing (more more FED cuts (markets expecting rates differential below (at least) 0.5% by end of 2020)) targetting 1.164x and 1.191x

Quoting Replicant
... impulsive swing : uptrend resumes via further rates cuts expectations on FED side (June, Sep, Dec as current implied probabilities show) : min 1.164x max 1.19xx ...
  • #44
  • Mar 5, 2020 7:57am Mar 5, 2020 7:57am
Epidemiology 101

Lethality rate = number of deaths / number of confirmed cases

Mortality rate = number of deaths / number of estimated cases

A lot of people mixing these 2 notions and comparing covid 19 lethality rate with seasonnal flu mortality rate.

Covid 19 contagion mode hasn't been yet modelized , hence number of estimated cases can't be yet interpolated. There is no mortality rate available for covid19.

----------------------------------------------

Come on EURUSD, draw this HL on ECB expectations...
A new break down in equities and uptrend in EURUSD might resume via new FED expectations
  • #45
  • Mar 5, 2020 11:42am Mar 5, 2020 11:42am
EURUSD flirting with imminent break up at these levels.

=> If ECB doesn't raise current market's expectations for next week meeting ...

(as it stands expectations are : 1) a max cut of 10 bp (tbh, how could they cut more with a deposit rate already deep in negative territory (-0.5%) that threatens banking sector ? 2) raising QE2 purchases from 20bns/month to 30 bns/month)

... then, much bigger FED expectations (another 50bp cut is expected by June FOMC at the latest while 25bp cut in April looks guaranteed) are going to trigger a new break up for a direct flow to 1.133x (1.1344 is the exact level that should cap the flow). Postponing the retrace swing ...
  • #46
  • Mar 5, 2020 3:24pm Mar 5, 2020 3:24pm
EURUSD ST Map in a nutshell
with major FA & TA events

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-d1-05032020.png Size: 125 KB
  • #47
  • Mar 5, 2020 4:25pm Mar 5, 2020 4:25pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Super checked , flawless call from 1.120x => Retrace swing (selling FED's cut fact & preempting (slights) ECB measures) in play {quote} => Min theoretical target = 1.101x => Max theoretical target = 1.083x ... before the main dish : positionning for the impulsive swing (more more FED cuts (markets expecting rates differential below (at least) 0.5% by end of 2020)) targetting 1.164x and 1.191x {quote}

so do you see eurusd going down next?
  • #48
  • Mar 6, 2020 7:28am Mar 6, 2020 7:28am
Quoting Replicant
EURUSD flirting with imminent break up at these levels [...]much bigger FED expectations (another 50bp cut is expected by June FOMC at the latest while 25bp cut in April looks guaranteed) are going to trigger a new break up for a direct flow to 1.133x (1.1344 is the exact level that should cap the flow). Postponing the retrace swing ...
"break up"
"direct flow to 1.133x (1.1344 is the exact level that should cap the flow)" super

Last June 2019 SH rejection (1.1344) has capped the flow so far, intraday scalpers smelt the bargain (high 1.1341)


Quoting emicovi
{quote} so do you see eurusd going down next?
We only had an intraday retrace with FED's cut fact (intraday retrace from 1.120x to last break up point @ 1.109x). Of course, we will have a retrace swing.
But now it's still the initial swing. As said earlier, 1.133x was/is a good area to try. 1.141x is next one. Tbh, I can't see price going beyond these levels without a breath. We have ECB next thursday, and good NFP expected today. So timing wise, retrace swing looks imminent.

But don't forget the real dish will be the impulsive swing that will pan out after. From a strict rates differential perspective, we had already unlocked 1.164x and 1.191x. But now with the new break down in Equities, further FED cuts are expected and it's now 1.225x that is unlocked !!!

TA wise all these levels are still locked though. But holding 1.124x fot the W close today (= MT reversal), will unlock first one 1.164x.
  • #49
  • Mar 6, 2020 7:34am Mar 6, 2020 7:34am
EURUSD ST Map update

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-d1-06032020.png Size: 125 KB
  • #50
  • Mar 6, 2020 9:24am Mar 6, 2020 9:24am
Quoting Replicant
ST Sell UBER 41.0x TP1 36.7x TP2 35.0x STP 42.01 MT Sell UBER 41.0x TP1 35.0x TP2 30.2x TP3 28.3x STP 42.01
After a second annoying miss to clear MT TP2 30.2x (for 60 cents..), clearing manually here MT TP2 @ 30.8x in NYSE:UBER

A decent -24.87% from entry price @ 41.0x.

Last taget of MT swing, TP3 28.3, just need a break down of 30.6x on D1
Trailing stop for the remaining shorts at 35.6x now

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uber-d1-06032020.png Size: 56 KB


By the way :

Quoting Replicant
NYSE:UBER [...] but it is now facing everincreasing competition in the sector, legal issues (in particular with local labour laws) and growing demands from its contractors. [...]
fresh in France 2 days ago : https://fr.reuters.com/article/topNews/idFRKBN20R237

a game changer for Uber if other countries jump in.
  • #51
  • Edited 1:24pm Mar 6, 2020 1:14pm | Edited 1:24pm
EURUSD MT Map update

EURUSD looks set to hold the break (1.124x) for the W close => We have a MT reversal

Meaning :

1) We have now a MT Bottom confirmed @ 1.101x.

2) Top of the range 1.162x (D1 says extrem at 1.164x) is now unlocked TA wise. (as said earlier, it was already unlocked monetary policy wise via FED expectations)

3) MT wise, everything below 1.101x is a cheap area to load tickets for the top of the range with best value area, the MT rejection at 1.095x.

4) MT Flip is SH @ 1.141x.

==================================================

Next week is an ECB week.

Plus, we will have first post covid19 EZ macro data in the wires.

=> Timing wise, ST wise, MT wise, context points to a retrace swing from 1.133x (or last chance, 1.141x as hinted in discussion above).

Only a flop from ECB will kill the retrace imo which will trigger a direct flow to MT top 1.162x. Very very high chances that 1.16xx handle is under watch by ECB.

For the retrace, supports to track to take profit/ or to position for the impulsive swing to 1.16xx :

1.122x (H1 reversal down trigger/last D1 break up) ==> 1.109x (H4 reversal down trigger/major D1 break up) ==> 1.101x (MT Bottom)/1.099x (previous ST Bottom) ==> 1.095x (MT rejection) ==> 1.092x (ST reversal) ==> 1.083x (ST Bottom)

==================================================


MT Map

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-w1-06032020.png Size: 56 KB


ST Map

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-d1-06032020.png Size: 125 KB
  • #52
  • Mar 8, 2020 12:09pm Mar 8, 2020 12:09pm
After OPEC+ discussions flop last week (ending a 3Y old pact), OPEC countries removing their limits on their own output, reports now hinting SA is going to raise its production by 10% next month to 11 millions barils/day (max capacity they have is 12 millions/day).

It looks more a mind game between Putin & MBS than an oil war to me, but that should be enough to visit the bottom of the MT range 35.xx with extrem target at 31.xx. At least some good news as it might be a breather for WW economy under covid19 shock, especially for airlines companies.

Crude MT Chart looks clear (and also reflects imo how information is completely asymetric on all oil topics as, PA wise, it looks clear a lot of hands had already positionned for these moves......)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: crude-w1-06032020.png Size: 59 KB
  • #53
  • Mar 8, 2020 1:03pm Mar 8, 2020 1:03pm
I saw Italy is closing the shop. That's insane, it's a random coronavirus not the smallpox. In terms of public health, a recession is far more dangerous via unemployment, poverty, crimes .. WHO backing the move is scary as other countries might now follow.

Market wise, It's going to be very hard days in Equities until another "infected" country categorically rejects this solution.
  • #54
  • Mar 8, 2020 2:57pm Mar 8, 2020 2:57pm
EURUSD looks set to gap up via red equities (pull up factor) but still inside ST range so that's not news TA wise. ST Map remains unchanged.

We still have this week 2 expected push down factors :

Quoting Replicant
...Next week is an ECB week. Plus, we will have first post covid19 EZ macro data in the wires. ...
=> first post covid19 EZ macro data (expected bad to awful) as early as tomorrow european morning with investor confidence (maybe an ATL ?)
=> And ECB next thursday (assuming they deliver)

Italy's lockdown is obviously a third one now.
  • #55
  • Mar 8, 2020 5:12pm Mar 8, 2020 5:12pm
Quoting Replicant
After OPEC+ discussions flop last week (ending a 3Y old pact), OPEC countries removing their limits on their own output, reports now hinting SA is going to raise its production by 10% next month to 11 millions barils/day (max capacity they have is 12 millions/day). It looks more a mind game between Putin & MBS than an oil war to me, but that should be enough to visit the bottom of the MT range 35.xx with extrem target at 31.xx. At least some good news as it might be a breather for WW economy under covid19 shock, especially for airlines...
Crude gap down and already cleared the MT Bottom 35.xx & 31.xx
  • #56
  • Mar 8, 2020 9:47pm Mar 8, 2020 9:47pm
Quoting Replicant
EURUSD looks set to gap up via red equities (pull up factor) but still inside ST range so that's not news TA wise. ST Map remains unchanged. We still have this week 2 expected push down factors : {quote} => first post covid19 EZ macro data (expected bad to awful) as early as tomorrow european morning with investor confidence (maybe an ATL ?) => And ECB next thursday (assuming they deliver) Italy's lockdown is obviously a third one now.
Equities crash pulling EURUSD up during Asian session, that reminds me that crazy week in August 2015. Bears, if leverage allows it, should sit tight imo and raise their stops, high chance week ends with a long long wick on W chart as ECB is now almost forced to pull the trigger.
  • #57
  • Mar 9, 2020 9:50am Mar 9, 2020 9:50am
Quoting Replicant
We might be trading uncharted waters... ES already trading LT levels (!) whereas we don't even have a single post-crisis macro data released. {image}

ES has tested LT reversal down trigger @ 272x, hands bought the level but end of month is far away...

It still has plenty of time to visit Winter 2018 Bottom (262x and extrem (rejection) @ 252x) before closing the month above 272x.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es-m1-09032020.png Size: 52 KB
  • #58
  • Mar 9, 2020 10:03am Mar 9, 2020 10:03am
Quoting Replicant
NYSE:UBER UBER has probably done more for the economic empowerment of people living in underprivileged districts than any random social plan from any random government, but it is now facing everincreasing competition in the sector, legal issues (in particular with local labour laws) and growing demands from its contractors. [...] ST Sell UBER 41.0x TP1 36.7x TP2 35.0x STP 42.01 MT Sell UBER 41.0x TP1 35.0x TP2 30.2x TP3 28.3x STP 42.01...
Final 28.3x hit

ST swing and MT Swing completed in NYSE:UBER

ST Sell UBER 41.0x TP1 36.7x TP2 35.0x
MT Sell UBER 41.0x TP1 35.0x TP2 30.2x TP3 28.3x

with a max drawdown of 10 cents ! (high @ 41.1x)

Entry was good but for the rest, obviously, no glory as WW context helped a lot

For the record :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uber-d1-09032020-SwingCompleted.png Size: 44 KB
  • #59
  • Mar 10, 2020 11:26am Mar 10, 2020 11:26am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Equities crash pulling EURUSD up during Asian session, that reminds me that crazy week in August 2015. Bears, if leverage allows it, should sit tight imo and raise their stops, high chance week ends with a long long wick on W chart as ECB is now almost forced to pull the trigger.

EURUSD update

=> long long wick in play on W chart as expected

=> via very loud noise in financial newspapers ECB is ready to deliver as expected :

1) a 10bp cut on deposit rate (from -0.50% to -0.60%)
2) and, the real deal, an increase in private bonds purchase via their Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) : Increase by €20bns/month minimum + extension of eligibility (wider perimeter)

Well done those who sit tight


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-w1-10032020.png Size: 57 KB
  • #60
  • Edited 1:44pm Mar 10, 2020 1:16pm | Edited 1:44pm
EURUSD ST Map update

We have a first attempt of a rejection of the highs on D1
Day closing below 1.1336 and we will have that rejection

After a 700+ pips rally, price hasn't still drawn a single SL but it looks on its way now (done deal once we have that rejection, wherever it happens)

As it stands, we are heading towards a fake break up of ST range (~ August 2015 like) : a break up that occured only on inertia via equities crash, as hinted last sunday night, and not via CB expectations.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-d1-10032020.png Size: 122 KB


Supports to track to take profit in the upcoming (hopefully) retrace swing and to position for the juicy impulsive swing to 1.16xx/1.191x haven't changed :

Quoting Replicant
... Next week is an ECB week. Plus, we will have first post covid19 EZ macro data in the wires. => Timing wise, ST wise, MT wise, context points to a retrace swing from 1.133x (or last chance, 1.141x as hinted in discussion above). [...] , supports to track to take profit/ or to position for the impulsive swing to 1.16xx : 1.122x (H1 reversal down trigger/last D1 break up) ==> 1.109x (H4 reversal down trigger/major D1 break up) ==> 1.101x (MT Bottom)/1.099x (previous ST Bottom) ==> 1.095x (MT rejection) ==> 1.092x (ST reversal) ==>...
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