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  • #281
  • Aug 7, 2020 7:39am Aug 7, 2020 7:39am
Quoting Replicant
Lol DT hinting "big job numbers are coming on Friday" on Fox & Friends If I remember well, first time he leaked a report was in May/June 2018, and leak was completely accurate. Unemployment Rate already ticking below 10% would be big news

DT definitely best leaker in town ... Another accurate leak

If one didn't add/load on the leak (which btw was not even reported in FF's news section !) ................................

=> overshoot in NFP + soft revision down for the previous release + very strong overshoot in AHE + undershoot in unemployment rate (on the brink of printing a single digit). A positive report given the context. Self-proclaimed elite that were calling (let's say it, hoping ?) the Apocalypse are going to have a stroke.


In any case, thread was already loaded in EU & GU before the leak :

Quoting Replicant
{quote} Pure chop in the highs so far in EU, heaven for scalpers Pending sell ahead of NFP to try to play a more meaningful retrace : Sell 1.185x TP1 1.172x TP2 1.163x STP 1.198x 1:1 for TP1 1.3:2.2 for TP2 An inline (or better) NFP release might do it
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Sell in GU as well ahead of tomorrow BOE, expected very dovish to set a strong Top : Sell 1.310x TP1 1.292x TP2 1.283x TP2 1.274x STP 1.328x 1:1 for TP1 1.8:2.7 for TP2 1.8:3.6 for TP3

=> Both swings are in full play now.


FA wise, highs & lows in all USD pairs look set for August at least (prolly all Q3), capped/floored by no further expectations on FED


On a side note, TA wise, high was already set in EU :

first, with an early alert on last week's close :

Quoting Replicant
{quote} .... On top, Euro alone looks set for some chop/retrace after the EU Bonds leg from 1.089x (in EU, as reference) There might be still a wild card for the next 3 thin summer weeks but it looks very doubtful to me we will break higher : bulls unloaded heavily last friday as engulfing candle shows. So selling the highs of July looks a no brainer if we go there again. MT wise, flop to hold 1.181x last friday has left 1.162x naked for a test....

=> Selling the highs of July (1.190x) was a no brainer

and finally with an official stamp early this week :

Quoting Replicant
{quote} EU broke down 1.171.x on H4, we have our Top ... meaning we should not break July highs in the ST H4 map I have : H4 Bottom 1.142x ==> H4 Flip 1.159x <== H4 Top 1.179x Which means everything above 1.179x is cheap to play either some chop in the highs (pure scalp) or further retrace (swing play to 1.159x max 1.142x) 1.185x is extrem and should cap any flow popping there imo {image} MT Wise : {quote} 1.162x still wide open for a test
=> No break of the highs on the retrace after the early break down 1.171x as expected


Let the siwngs unfold now. TPs & STP are locked, what can happen ?
  • #282
  • Aug 7, 2020 8:27am Aug 7, 2020 8:27am
LOL ....

Which levels capped the knee jerk reaction in EU & GU on NFP's release ?

1.185x & 1.310x ... our 2 entry price for the 2 swings ... Must be a coincidence ...


Swing trading
  • #283
  • Aug 7, 2020 12:38pm Aug 7, 2020 12:38pm
As a wrap up in EU


H4 Map

The Big Picture :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h4-07082020-bigpicture.png Size: 164 KB

The Small Picture :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h4-07082020.png Size: 95 KB



W1 Map

The Big Picture :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-w1-07082020.png Size: 158 KB
  • #284
  • Aug 11, 2020 2:47am Aug 11, 2020 2:47am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Pure chop in the highs so far in EU, heaven for scalpers Pending sell ahead of NFP to try to play a more meaningful retrace : Sell 1.185x TP1 1.172x TP2 1.163x STP 1.198x 1:1 for TP1 1.3:2.2 for TP2 An inline (or better) NFP release might do it
First target 1.172x hit in EU from 1.185x

+ 130 pips

Max drawdown = - 60 pips

Keeping the remaining for TP2 1.163x and trailing STP at BE 1.185x now

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h4-11082020.png Size: 95 KB
  • #285
  • Aug 11, 2020 8:25am Aug 11, 2020 8:25am
Another early alert on US inflation front.

After the strong overshoot in wages last friday, producers prices picking up as well.

Step by step, inflation is going to corner US FED and lock further easing.
  • #286
  • Aug 11, 2020 2:51pm Aug 11, 2020 2:51pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} First target 1.172x hit in EU from 1.185x + 130 pips Max drawdown = - 60 pips Keeping the remaining for TP2 1.163x and trailing STP at BE 1.185x now {image}
TP to the tick followed by a retrace hammered to the tick : Map in EU is well in synch.
And bears are confirmed in total control of the flow.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h4-11082020.png Size: 93 KB


US inflation starting to weigh and giving a hand to all USD pairs. Tomorrow, other inflation figures will be released.
TA wise, on D1, DXY is flirting to trigger (94.0x) a decent retrace to min 96.0x.
  • #287
  • Aug 13, 2020 5:44am Aug 13, 2020 5:44am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Pure chop in the highs so far in EU, heaven for scalpers Pending sell ahead of NFP to try to play a more meaningful retrace : Sell 1.185x TP1 1.172x TP2 1.163x STP 1.198x 1:1 for TP1 1.3:2.2 for TP2 An inline (or better) NFP release might do it
Quoting Replicant
{quote} First target 1.172x hit in EU from 1.185x + 130 pips Max drawdown = - 60 pips Keeping the remaining for TP2 1.163x and trailing STP at BE 1.185x now {image}
Trailed STP hit @ BE 1.185x in EU

=> All remaining shorts cleared

Realized PnL = + 120 pips @ TP1 + 0 pip @ Trailed STP
Max drawdown = - 60 pips
Max drawup = + 130 pips

Decent trade but disappointing at the end. Definitely not a swing there, that was pure chop in the highs.

FA wise, still thinking that highs & lows in all USD pairs are pretty much set for the ST (protected by employment and inflation numbers (which imply no further expectations on FED)).


===================================================================================================

Remaining open trades in the thread :

Sell GU 1.310x TP1 1.292x TP2 1.283x TP2 1.274x STP 1.328x
Long EURTHB @ 34.8x TP1 36.8x TP2 39.0x STP 33.8x
Short Hedge EURTHB @ 36.8x TP1 36.3x TP2 35.8x
  • #288
  • Aug 17, 2020 5:02am Aug 17, 2020 5:02am
Pending Sell EU 1.188x TP1 1.179x TP2 1.169x TP3 1.159x TP4 1.150x STP 1.198X
  • #289
  • Aug 18, 2020 8:28am Aug 18, 2020 8:28am
Quoting Replicant
Pending Sell EU 1.188x TP1 1.179x TP2 1.169x TP3 1.159x TP4 1.150x STP 1.198X
Doesn't smell good, stinks imminent break up in EU.

FA wise i don't see why we should break up but TA wise it looks unavoidable.

Cleared shorts from 1.188x @ 1.193x

- 50 pips

Max drawdown = - 60 pips
Max drawup = + 30 pips

Quoting Replicant
... For the record, LT extrem sits at 1.215x...
If EU breaks up, there is nothing till 1.215x, super strong res MT & LT wise
  • #290
  • Aug 24, 2020 10:42am Aug 24, 2020 10:42am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Doesn't smell good, stinks imminent break up in EU. FA wise i don't see why we should break up but TA wise it looks unavoidable. Cleared shorts from 1.188x @ 1.193x - 50 pips Max drawdown = - 60 pips Max drawup = + 30 pips {quote} If EU breaks up, there is nothing till 1.215x, super strong res MT & LT wise
Hope you update your maps on many trades pro.
Thanks
  • #291
  • Sep 4, 2020 7:41am Sep 4, 2020 7:41am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Doesn't smell good, stinks imminent break up in EU. FA wise i don't see why we should break up but TA wise it looks unavoidable. Cleared shorts from 1.188x @ 1.193x - 50 pips Max drawdown = - 60 pips Max drawup = + 30 pips {quote} If EU breaks up, there is nothing till 1.215x, super strong res MT & LT wise
Any update on EURUSD AND GBPUSD maps Sir
  • #292
  • Sep 5, 2020 8:37am Sep 5, 2020 8:37am
Quoting Replicant
As a wrap up in EU H4 Map The Big Picture : {image} The Small Picture : {image} W1 Map The Big Picture : {image}
.71

Previous Joyous NFP resulted in a bullish bounce. Would this one not react the same? Question for you. When you called the 1.71l bottom off that candle. Can you elaborate on how you came to that one? There are other candles around it that also bounced off of areas. Why THAT one?
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #293
  • Oct 3, 2020 10:33am Oct 3, 2020 10:33am
Quoting Replicant
As a wrap up in EU H4 Map The Big Picture : {image} The Small Picture : {image} W1 Map The Big Picture : {image}

Two months later, not a single line to add to that EURUSD weekly chart :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-w1-03102020.png Size: 166 KB


FA wise, only 2 big news to mark and they offset each other : FED's historical decision on inflation, to which ECB answered by hinting 1.19xx was underwatch

TA wise, it has resulted in a rejection from the highs last week, that has definitely killed any chances to break up higher for the foreseeable future meaning

MT Map remains unchanged :


MT Bottom 1.083x <--- MT Flip 1.117x --> MT Top 1.162x


--> Remaining above 1.162x on W close (it's still so far) means chop in the highs (meaning heaven for scalpers and for no-clue-traders), but it's guaranteed any flow will be capped by last highs as long as FA environment remains the same.

--> While losing that level on W close will unlock untested break up @ 1.149x.

Headlines like DT developping pneumonia (15/20% chance), DT on a ventilator (10/15% chance), DT dead (5% chance) and it's direct 1.117x via full risk-off with US Equities that could lose foot till 272x (ES for reference).

Not sure how deep below 1.117x EURUSD could - briefly - go if DT doesn't make it (1.083x is bottom), but as long as US administration holds (--> Pence --> Pelosi), everything below 1.129x is unfair value policy monetary wise imo.
  • #294
  • Oct 3, 2020 4:05pm Oct 3, 2020 4:05pm
Regarding EURUSD D1 Map:

D1 Map :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-d1-03102020.png Size: 77 KB



D1 Bottom 1.122x <--- D1 Flip 1.162x --> D1 Top 1.188x

Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} .71 Previous Joyous NFP resulted in a bullish bounce. Would this one not react the same? Question for you. When you called the 1.71l bottom off that candle. Can you elaborate on how you came to that one? There are other candles around it that also bounced off of areas. Why THAT one?
(switch off volume)
Inserted Video


can you spot the breaks, the retraces, eventually the wicks ? sure
but, to you, when does it stop rising and starts falling ?
how would you write your own criteria, wave wise ?
  • #295
  • Oct 3, 2020 4:30pm Oct 3, 2020 4:30pm
Quoting Sami83
{quote} Any update on EURUSD AND GBPUSD maps Sir
you have some above for EURUSD, below GBPUSD D1 Map

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-d1-03102020.png Size: 127 KB
  • #296
  • Oct 5, 2020 11:22am Oct 5, 2020 11:22am
Quoting Replicant
Regarding EURUSD D1 Map: D1 Map : {image} D1 Bottom 1.122x <--- D1 Flip 1.162x --> D1 Top 1.188x ...
Limit Sell EURUSD @ 1.180x TP1 1.171x TP2 1.162x TP3 1.155x TP4 1.129x STP 1.189x

last break down point is @ 1.182x but I want to be filled so loose entry

TP1, TP2 & TP3 well in the range FA & TA wise
TP4 out of scope but related to DT's health
Min r:r = 1:1
  • #297
  • Oct 5, 2020 1:08pm Oct 5, 2020 1:08pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} you have some above for EURUSD, below GBPUSD D1 Map {image}
Thanks alot Master.
I hope you update maps on many cahrts
God bless you.
  • #298
  • Oct 6, 2020 4:44pm Oct 6, 2020 4:44pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} ... below GBPUSD D1 Map {image}
Super checked . F-l-a-w-l-e-s-s double top in GBPUSD.

=> momentum leg to 1.236x in play, with ntermediate taget in the lows of 1.25xx.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-d1-06102020.png Size: 131 KB
  • #299
  • Oct 6, 2020 4:54pm Oct 6, 2020 4:54pm
Meanwhile in EURUSD ...

Quoting Replicant
{quote} Limit Sell EURUSD @ 1.180x TP1 1.171x TP2 1.162x TP3 1.155x TP4 1.129x STP 1.189x last break down point is @ 1.182x but I want to be filled so loose entry TP1, TP2 & TP3 well in the range FA & TA wise TP4 out of scope but related to DT's health Min r:r = 1:1
entry to the tick and down it went ...
  • #300
  • Oct 9, 2020 5:23am Oct 9, 2020 5:23am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Limit Sell EURUSD @ 1.180x TP1 1.171x TP2 1.162x TP3 1.155x TP4 1.129x STP 1.189x last break down point is @ 1.182x but I want to be filled so loose entry TP1, TP2 & TP3 well in the range FA & TA wise TP4 out of scope but related to DT's health Min r:r = 1:1
Failed to clear TP1 1.171x by a few pips (low 1.1725) and now back at entry point 1.180x. No swing, that's just pure chop. Highs of 1.18xx / lows of 1.19xx look as much exposed as TP1 now. Clearing shorts at BE here.

Max drawdown : 0 pip
Max drawup : + 80 pips
Realized PnL : 0 pip
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