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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #4,621
  • Oct 29, 2016 10:49am Oct 29, 2016 10:49am
Looking at bitfinex diagram, seems like 725 will be breached, which means 744 will be next stop. However, at this level now where the price is, risk/reward is a no-no for me. I will remain with cash, till the next revisit on the mid 650es levels.

GL to all!
  • #4,622
  • Nov 1, 2016 12:42pm Nov 1, 2016 12:42pm
Quoting GrabThePip
Looking at bitfinex diagram, seems like 725 will be breached, which means 744 will be next stop. However, at this level now where the price is, risk/reward is a no-no for me. I will remain with cash, till the next revisit on the mid 650es levels. GL to all!
BTCUSD and Yuan correlation is massive. Keep an eye on that as bitcoin is a CNH Proxy
  • #4,623
  • Nov 1, 2016 4:17pm Nov 1, 2016 4:17pm
Quoting Punter447
{quote} BTCUSD and Yuan correlation is massive. Keep an eye on that as bitcoin is a CNH Proxy
744 materialized as predicted(746 to be precise). Few words though, there are couple of factors that pushed price there. First, is(as it seems) the solution for bigger blocks and escalation of the network, and second the political uncertainity with the political field. Those two factors help boosted the price and bring back to the table the bull patern. Even so, im STILL NOT BUYING even if it continues like that and 744 breached, next stop would be 788. Atm bitcoin is overpriced, and when it corrects from those levels it will be a 3 digit correction(and i want to make sure i'll be holding the cash to be the buyer).

good luck to all!
  • #4,624
  • Nov 3, 2016 3:44am Nov 3, 2016 3:44am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Update : New SL level : {image}

Update : close to be stopped out but price resumed up . New SL level :

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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #4,625
  • Nov 4, 2016 2:58am Nov 4, 2016 2:58am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Update : close to be stopped out but price resumed up . New SL level : {image}

Finally we got stopped out with good profit . A deep correction take place putting in difficulty traders. Perhaps this is a take profit and we should avoid entering short as long as the bull trend remain intact .

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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #4,626
  • Nov 4, 2016 3:02am Nov 4, 2016 3:02am
And so it starts...

if daily closes below 700$ today, a new temporarily support will be found at 667~671$ zone, and based on the pressure we may decide to start getting few coins, so we start building some positions. Just a few though, we still want to buy the majority in low 600es and ideally sub 600$(in the 585$ zone).

trade safe, and always be green
  • #4,627
  • Nov 8, 2016 3:47pm Nov 8, 2016 3:47pm
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Finally we got stopped out with good profit . A deep correction take place putting in difficulty traders. Perhaps this is a take profit and we should avoid entering short as long as the bull trend remain intact . {image} {image}

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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #4,628
  • Edited 1:19am Nov 9, 2016 1:00am | Edited 1:19am
Bitcoin's usual corrective pattern is an ABC as highlighted in blue in the 1day chart below. Additionally, the large correction at bottom-left and the previous correction in June/July both display this pattern (the June/July pattern is typical bitcoin, isn't it?).

It must be considered that during a rally, the usual corrective pattern frequently gives way to a faster slam-down to support which then quickly returns to advance. Instances are highlighted in yellow, although not clearly visible due to the smaller wave degree at that time.

The attached 1day chart is bullish (stochastics turning up, RSI bouncing from 50 support, MACD advancing above zero) but could still give way to an ABC if the current push higher is only a corrective advance. However, the 4hr chart MACD implies this is resumption of the rally. Given the ambiguity, a suitable tactic would be to trade the advance to a Fib extension target - take profit at the next 2.618 target ( $750 Bitstamp ) - and to then assess the direction of trend at the smaller timeframes.

Bitstamp 1-Day Chart

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The number of liquidations in the OKCoin 3mth futures contract is quite high today. Granted, the positions are mostly small, but it shows how many traders anticipated additional decline, and the fact that they committed to the short bet without any compelling technical reasons to do so. Additional, larger liquidations higher up in the chart should create some upward acceleration as Trump makes his first fart in the Whitehouse.

OKCoin 3mth contract liquidations

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cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,629
  • Nov 9, 2016 4:07pm Nov 9, 2016 4:07pm
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} {image} {image}

Update : that's the pullback we were waiting for :

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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #4,630
  • Nov 12, 2016 8:29am Nov 12, 2016 8:29am
Quoting GrabThePip
And so it starts... if daily closes below 700$ today, a new temporarily support will be found at 667~671$ zone, and based on the pressure we may decide to start getting few coins, so we start building some positions. Just a few though, we still want to buy the majority in low 600es and ideally sub 600$(in the 585$ zone). trade safe, and always be green
Looks like the timing is close atm. we monitor closely and wait patiently a further decline, to start getting some long positions
  • #4,631
  • Nov 14, 2016 6:19am Nov 14, 2016 6:19am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Update : that's the pullback we were waiting for : {image}
Update : indeed they were revealed. We are safe , our trade did not triggered :

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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #4,632
  • Nov 30, 2016 6:57am Nov 30, 2016 6:57am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} the bull trend remain intact . {image}
Update :

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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #4,633
  • Dec 2, 2016 1:41am Dec 2, 2016 1:41am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Update : {image} {image}

Update : The first scenario take place.

Ideally for us will be a lock in profit for bulls wich will create a correction . This action will be observed by conservative traders wich will find a ideally opportunity to buy above support.

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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #4,634
  • Dec 7, 2016 9:11am Dec 7, 2016 9:11am
Predictions for next year

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-is...-idUSKBN13W1KF
  • #4,635
  • Dec 10, 2016 6:36am Dec 10, 2016 6:36am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Update : The first scenario take place. Ideally for us will be a lock in profit for bulls wich will create a correction . This action will be observed by conservative traders wich will find a ideally opportunity to buy above support. {image} {image}

Update :

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A short recapitulation in images of Bitcoin evolution over period 06 November 2015 - 10 December 2016 :

Inserted Video
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #4,636
  • Dec 11, 2016 12:26am Dec 11, 2016 12:26am
I have to politely disagree with my fellow analyst andoseg2 about the outlook for the coming days and weeks. Yes, the larger trend remains up but a correction is due.

Compounding RSI divergence warns of a loss of upward momentum (blue annotation). Failure of the stochastics to group at their maximum value on new highs is a medium-term bearish indication (magenta circle).

Another phenomenon that characterizes bitcoin price's behavior is the gap that forms between MACD Bollinger Bands and MACD zero (red arrows).

The expected correction low should be in the blue zone - ideally $680 - but strong bullish bias in the chart may see the market find support at the $700 psych level.

A caveat to the above forecast is that we have an unresolved target at $810 - confirmed by overlapping Fib extension and magnetic line (salutations @CrazyOz). The market may blow off to a new 2016 high before retesting $680 long-term support. Then all hell should break loose in the bitcoin price chart.

(edit: I would like to state my view that there is a strong possibility that bitcoin price will surpass gold price in the coming weeks - a global news event that will fuel a new bitcoin price all-time high)

Bitstamp 1day chart

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cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,637
  • Dec 20, 2016 4:19am Dec 20, 2016 4:19am
Quoting venzen
I have to politely disagree with my fellow analyst andoseg2 about the outlook for the coming days and weeks. Yes, the larger trend remains up but a correction is due. Compounding RSI divergence warns of a loss of upward momentum (blue annotation). Failure of the stochastics to group at their maximum value on new highs is a medium-term bearish indication (magenta circle). Another phenomenon that characterizes bitcoin price's behavior is the gap that forms between MACD Bollinger Bands and MACD zero (red arrows). The expected correction low should...
Slowly but surely.
Merry Xmas venzen & all...
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Combat crazy markets with crazy trading
  • #4,638
  • Dec 21, 2016 5:05am Dec 21, 2016 5:05am
$810 target has been met.
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Money = Labour coupons
  • #4,639
  • Dec 21, 2016 8:40am Dec 21, 2016 8:40am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Update : {image} {image} {image} A short recapitulation in images of Bitcoin evolution over period 06 November 2015 - 10 December 2016 : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8SHRnOvSCo

Update : buyers took control of the trend. Triangle was valid and explosive breakout is on his way.

New SL level.

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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #4,640
  • Dec 21, 2016 6:24pm Dec 21, 2016 6:24pm
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} My expectations are that Bitcoin will rise at minimum 750$. There is no good low risk high reward opportunity in near future regarding Bitcoin. I mean, the price is already climbing. Until the buyers lock profit, it is possible to pass more time. If you missed the fresh entry wich I was shown, just wait patiently for another opportunity. The next zone wich will be interesting to add long is ~ 670$
Your target price has hit and cleared. We are at $820 now
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