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Why it is possible to predict price movement?

  • #1,221
  • Aug 23, 2019 8:46am Aug 23, 2019 8:46am
To make it clear once and for all


"Probability is primarily a theoretical branch of mathematics, which studies the consequences of mathematical definitions. Statistics is primarily an applied branch of mathematics, which tries to make sense of observations in the real world. "


https://www3.cs.stonybrook.edu/~skie...ts/node12.html
  • #1,222
  • Aug 23, 2019 3:35pm Aug 23, 2019 3:35pm
Quoting Tilt
To predict anything in trading is a fallacy and will hurt your psychology if coming from that frame of mind. You don't predict anything. What you do is continuously putting yourself in a position where odds are in your favor while keeping your risk in check. Then you just let your edge play itself out in the long-term. One of the more profound trading truths a trader must get under his/her skin.
Yes but, do you let the possibility... we are all striving/looking for... you can say/name it as HOLY GRAIL.. that it might be possible to PREDICT/FORECAST at least some of the time... some timeframe.. some market? If you are not letting this possibility out... You might be the opposite BELIEVER... without proof, which might put you in the same spot but with a negative "sign" Sometimes... they are THE REAL THING.. The sad thing is.. that they do not COME FORWARD or expose themselves... for no reason or at all... I have known for some people that made MAD MONEY... buy do you think they promote it? Yeah one guy got hold on some part of the forecast.. started bragging.. too many people (over time) jumped on the strategy... some big players, with serious deposits.. untill the strategy collapsed.. because at that rate broker would we wiped... so they checked, manual execution, dedicated review team.. to see how they got the money.. and market adapted... to put it mildly..
To maybe open your mind, although I might agree with what you are saying, in maybe a great part, but do let this help you open the mind

P.S. What I found out is that the most successful traders.. that might be able to predict/forecast.. best.. are SILENT AF... They hold or woved to the principe of:
silentium est aureum...
Attached Image


because as the GEKKO said it in the WS87.. "Gordon Gekko: The most valuable commodity I know of is information."
By sharing too much info... you might lost too much of the edge...
https://www.quotes.net/mquote/102551

Attached Image


Ok here is the movie to EXPAND the mind, maybe BTW I do love to give forecasts, signals.. I think I sometime give too much which might affect my trading, but no worries yet, not many people take it too seriously (yet)... By the time they do... The predicted line might be over so I might post shorter timeframe predictions later

Inserted Video
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #1,223
  • Aug 24, 2019 11:09pm Aug 24, 2019 11:09pm
Simple answer. Follow Price action and understand harmonics is a way to predict future price. In order for this to work, you must develop a belief system that gives it a foundation.
  • #1,224
  • Sep 11, 2019 9:10am Sep 11, 2019 9:10am
Quoting fundiwambao
Consider... {image} .
This did not work out as intended of course!

I think this one has a better edge

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10. gbpnzd h1 - leading h1.png Size: 35 KB


.
  • #1,225
  • Sep 11, 2019 9:33am Sep 11, 2019 9:33am
tip------
READING order flow tells you where price can and can't go. Professional traders call it Liquidity and exhaustion.
Doesn't matter what you call it. You have to be able to see it on your charts.

support and resistance only tells you where order flow could and couldn't go before.

You need to know where order flow is going now. You essentially have to predict it.
So you need good accurate indicators of where price can and can't go. Order flow is the only thing that offers
real time direction. Few teach it. When I say indicators-- I'm not talking Macd or your typical indicators. You need to figure out your own.
You need to read price real time.

Most teach probabilities-- not accurate price movements. Why? because they can't read order flow.
Others use fundamentals to determine direction and it works-- if you understand it.
The best is being able to read order flow in real time. Most of you won't believe me--THAT'S YOUR FAULT!

For those that don't want to trade mathematical probabilities-- you have to develop a way of reading order flow and
where it can and can't go. Where price exhausts or flows.

The simple truth is if you trade with the flow--- you will be profitable and not deal with all the uncertainty that most traders
deal with. Most traders get lost when price doesn't do what they expect. Learning how to trade order flow virtually eliminates that uncertainty.
There is a little but not much.

If you can self teach yourself where price exhausts and doesn't exhaust-- YOU WILL BE PROFITABLE!
  • #1,226
  • Sep 12, 2019 2:09pm Sep 12, 2019 2:09pm
Quoting ztop
tip------ READING order flow tells you where price can and can't go. Professional traders call it Liquidity and exhaustion. Doesn't matter what you call it. You have to be able to see it on your charts. support and resistance only tells you where order flow could and couldn't go before. You need to know where order flow is going now. You essentially have to predict it. So you need good accurate indicators of where price can and can't go. Order flow is the only thing that offers real time direction. Few teach it. When I say indicators-- I'm not talking...
This mathematical probabilities are, I think, the least understood "creature"... Some traders don't understand that if we widen/change risk:reward ratio... the probability (all thing being equal/neutral)... changes dramatically. Some people have this TPs... like TP1-10 or even TP20+ now and then.. but they leave SL open..
meaning their TP probability is MUCH MUCH higher than SL/margin... and they look profitable.. "n" of wins in sequence is high, good win-rate... UNTIL.. it hit really bad... margin call, stop-out... Similar to Martingale... or "buying the dips" or whatever...

And also.. the thing about math/stat is that it sure as hell works GREAT.. no doubt... many tools, formulas, charts, representations... but AFTER
you set the assumptions or initial conditions.. Here is the trick... If anyone would be realistically able to predict the market.. in probabilities.. he would make billions out of 100USD... FAST...

Also, I still haven't found successful/proven/scientific method to "extract" the juice (probability) out of trades, trader.. To see who might have it, who might not..
Any ideas? Very hard to to that in the market with so many variables... Well sure some thinks work some of the time.. and there are some cause/effect relations (sometimes) but WHY and HOW... is where it all cracks down
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #1,227
  • Sep 12, 2019 5:16pm Sep 12, 2019 5:16pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} This mathematical probabilities are, I think, the least understood "creature"... Some traders don't understand that if we widen/change risk:reward ratio... the probability (all thing being equal/neutral)... changes dramatically. Some people have this TPs... like TP1-10 or even TP20+ now and then.. but they leave SL open.. meaning their TP probability is MUCH MUCH higher than SL/margin... and they look profitable.. "n" of wins in sequence is high, good win-rate... UNTIL.. it hit really bad... margin call, stop-out... Similar to Martingale......
How does one misunderstand probabilities? The name speaks for itself. People make money trading probabilities-- but the uncertainty makes trading difficult and frustrating. Why? Because trading is all about orders and if you can't read order flow you have to rely on probabilities. It's much easier to trade fundamentals-- news comes out and you determine the direction and trade it. The problem with fundamentals is you need to know when the trend ends and that takes reading order flow.

But the most difficult to learn but the easiet to trade is order flow. The basics are simple-- you trade the direction of the order flow and win every
time! lol When the order flow turns-- you trade the new order flow direction. Little uncertainty involved if you can read it. No stops needed. No risk to reward! No probabilities. The only thing you trade is with liquidity and away from exhaustion. Reading it accurately is the challenge and few teach it.

Good luck!
  • #1,228
  • Sep 15, 2019 6:02am Sep 15, 2019 6:02am
Quoting ztop
{quote} How does one misunderstand probabilities? The name speaks for itself. People make money trading probabilities-- but the uncertainty makes trading difficult and frustrating. Why? Because trading is all about orders and if you can't read order flow you have to rely on probabilities. It's much easier to trade fundamentals-- news comes out and you determine the direction and trade it. The problem with fundamentals is you need to know when the trend ends and that takes reading order flow. But the most difficult to learn but the easiet to trade...
yes, the smaller the time frame, the more difficult it is to predict price movements.
because no matter how good the analysis is, random price movements are, at least they don't know the reason.
and this is the hardest part of the trade.
  • #1,229
  • Sep 15, 2019 6:10am Sep 15, 2019 6:10am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} yes, the smaller the time frame, the more difficult it is to predict price movements. because no matter how good the analysis is, random price movements are, at least they don't know the reason. and this is the hardest part of the trade.
many do not take into account the risk of random price movements.
especially in smaller time frames.
  • #1,230
  • Sep 15, 2019 8:07am Sep 15, 2019 8:07am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} many do not take into account the risk of random price movements. especially in smaller time frames.
Not true! the smaller time frame is the best to read price with an eye on higher time frames.
The truth is at any given moment price comes down to a very small level and determining whether price is being held at that level or not
is all you're reading.

Does price have enough volume or momentum to break that level and continue is what you're determining.
If it doesn't, you know what direction price is going.

All time frames are useful but the most detailed and the ones with the most current and real time data are lower time frames.
Are they tough to read? sure--- sometimes.
  • #1,231
  • Sep 15, 2019 8:37am Sep 15, 2019 8:37am
[quote = ztop; 12503677] {idézet} Nem igaz! a kisebb időkeret a legjobb az ár olvasására, ha magasabb időkeretet veszünk figyelembe. Az igazság az, hogy az adott pillanatban az ár nagyon alacsony szintre esik, és azt határozza meg, hogy az árat ezen a szinten tartják-e vagy sem. Meghatározza-e az ár elegendő mennyiségét vagy lendületét ahhoz, hogy megszakítsa ezt a szintet, és továbbra is folytassa? Ha nem, akkor tudja, milyen irányba megy az ár. Minden időkeret hasznos, de a leg részletesebb, és a legfrissebb és valós idejű adatokkal alacsonyabb időkeretek vannak. Nehéz olvasni? természetesen --- néha. [/ idézet]
in my opinion, in a smaller timeframe, the price often vibrates only randomly.
and this random vibration cannot be predicted.
  • #1,232
  • Sep 15, 2019 10:49am Sep 15, 2019 10:49am
Quoting tiborf71
[quote = ztop; 12503677] {idézet} Nem igaz! a kisebb időkeret a legjobb az ár olvasására, ha magasabb időkeretet veszünk figyelembe. Az igazság az, hogy az adott pillanatban az ár nagyon alacsony szintre esik, és azt határozza meg, hogy az árat ezen a szinten tartják-e vagy sem. Meghatározza-e az ár elegendő mennyiségét vagy lendületét ahhoz, hogy megszakítsa ezt a szintet, és továbbra is folytassa? Ha nem, akkor tudja, milyen irányba megy az ár. Minden időkeret hasznos, de a leg részletesebb, és a legfrissebb és valós idejű...
it's order flow--- in real time-- and is an accurate representation of buyers and sellers.
it shows you exactly what is happening at the end of larger time frame candles
  • #1,233
  • Sep 15, 2019 1:08pm Sep 15, 2019 1:08pm
Quoting ztop
{quote} it's order flow--- in real time-- and is an accurate representation of buyers and sellers. it shows you exactly what is happening at the end of larger time frame candles
I understand this,
but you can never anticipate when a larger order will arrive.
that's why I'm trading d1 to rule out these effects.
  • #1,234
  • Sep 15, 2019 8:54pm Sep 15, 2019 8:54pm
What is Order Flow Trading – How to Profit from Order Flow
and this thread that was moved to the commercial session -
Stop Hunting using Sentiment and Market Structure

Nothing new under the sun, don't make it like you are zzzzzzzz on top of a smarter-than-thou secret.
  • #1,235
  • Sep 15, 2019 9:35pm Sep 15, 2019 9:35pm
It is NOT possible to predict price movement. In fact, if it were, markets wouldn't even exist. If you don't understand that statement, you shouldn't be trading.
  • #1,236
  • Sep 15, 2019 9:41pm Sep 15, 2019 9:41pm
Quoting gravitist
It is NOT possible to predict price movement. In fact, if it were, markets wouldn't even exist. If you don't understand that statement, you shouldn't be trading.
LOL thanks for your opinion. You believe what you want to believe. LOL
  • #1,237
  • Sep 16, 2019 9:18am Sep 16, 2019 9:18am
Ztop speak the way things are.
  • #1,238
  • Oct 1, 2019 1:46pm Oct 1, 2019 1:46pm
Quoting ztop
tip------ READING order flow tells you where price can and can't go. Professional traders call it Liquidity and exhaustion. Doesn't matter what you call it. You have to be able to see it on your charts. support and resistance only tells you where order flow could and couldn't go before. You need to know where order flow is going now. You essentially have to predict it. So you need good accurate indicators of where price can and can't go. Order flow is the only thing that offers real time direction. Few teach it. When I say indicators-- I'm...

I´m not to sure about that. All the rest we agree!!

Are expensive those type of indicators like order flow?
  • #1,239
  • Oct 1, 2019 2:07pm Oct 1, 2019 2:07pm
Quoting gravitist
It is NOT possible to predict price movement. In fact, if it were, markets wouldn't even exist. If you don't understand that statement, you shouldn't be trading.

It is possible to predict price movement. I do (and many more too). Markets still exist. Market is not random, market is manipulated. If you don´t understand that statement I wouldn´t trust you my money
  • #1,240
  • Edited 2:22pm Oct 1, 2019 2:10pm | Edited 2:22pm
Quoting Casiopea
{quote} It is possible to predict price movement. I do (and many more too). Markets still exist. Market is not random, market is manipulated. If you don´t understand that statement I wouldn´t trust you my money
Exactly, problem is that the massive competition makes it more efficient and unpredictable.

there are still opportunities but forget the crazy returns of Michael Marcus etc
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