@rockit there is not much scope of these predictions being true. Forex market is dominated by uncertainty. A trader should constantly follow economic news and critically analyze and monitor the market.
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- Sep 13, 2021 3:21am Sep 13, 2021 3:21am
- Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Member | 482 Posts
The following are my 2 cents that belong to my personal experience; I do not pretend to have the truth in my pocket but since I can make profits I must think that I'm on the right way.
Everytime human intervention is involved, human behavior is the cause but what you can see on any chart always is the effect after the fact.
Time ago a researchers group made an interesting test: they filled a glass jar with marbles, thereafter they went out on the street and asked people choosed randomly to guess how many marbles were into the jar. The true number of marbles was 16.984 and no one between the hundred of people that have been asked did guess the exact number; not only, all of them gave results very far from it.
This was not a surprise, but making the average of the given answers has been a real surprise: indeed they found that the sum average of the results was the almost exact true number of the marbles with a tollerance about 0,... percent. The further surprise was that without people beeing aware they grouped 50% in the overextimation range and the other 50% in the underextimation range. They repeated the test many times and results have always been the same.
So, what does this mean? That individual behavior always is unpredictable meanwhile you can quite easy predict which a human group behavior will be in a given environment and with a known input of information.
Price behaves the same way, and this is the reason why sometimes is predictable and sometimes it is not.
Said that most of the common known tools about price, S/R, supply and demand, fundamentals and order flow, are affected by the same cause, therefore you cannot rely on them or you have to learn to assess the conditions in which they do work and the conditions in which they do not.
In other words there is no a set and forget tool or system and there is no way to be consistent with predicting future price action: the best you can do is anticipating price in the situations in which is predictable and in anycase it can only be reliable in a short term. The rest is done with risk management and this is the only thing you will hear about very rarely; you will be told about money management but not about risk management because it is really counter-intuitive and before you can understand it you need a hard mind training.
Everytime human intervention is involved, human behavior is the cause but what you can see on any chart always is the effect after the fact.
Time ago a researchers group made an interesting test: they filled a glass jar with marbles, thereafter they went out on the street and asked people choosed randomly to guess how many marbles were into the jar. The true number of marbles was 16.984 and no one between the hundred of people that have been asked did guess the exact number; not only, all of them gave results very far from it.
This was not a surprise, but making the average of the given answers has been a real surprise: indeed they found that the sum average of the results was the almost exact true number of the marbles with a tollerance about 0,... percent. The further surprise was that without people beeing aware they grouped 50% in the overextimation range and the other 50% in the underextimation range. They repeated the test many times and results have always been the same.
So, what does this mean? That individual behavior always is unpredictable meanwhile you can quite easy predict which a human group behavior will be in a given environment and with a known input of information.
Price behaves the same way, and this is the reason why sometimes is predictable and sometimes it is not.
Said that most of the common known tools about price, S/R, supply and demand, fundamentals and order flow, are affected by the same cause, therefore you cannot rely on them or you have to learn to assess the conditions in which they do work and the conditions in which they do not.
In other words there is no a set and forget tool or system and there is no way to be consistent with predicting future price action: the best you can do is anticipating price in the situations in which is predictable and in anycase it can only be reliable in a short term. The rest is done with risk management and this is the only thing you will hear about very rarely; you will be told about money management but not about risk management because it is really counter-intuitive and before you can understand it you need a hard mind training.
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- Sep 15, 2022 1:37pm Sep 15, 2022 1:37pm
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- Sep 23, 2022 4:08am Sep 23, 2022 4:08am
- Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Member | 482 Posts
There is a logical thread that connects everything but many people do not see it and stumble upon it.
The reason is that the common way of thinking is linear meanwhile you are facing with a no linear field. Change your way of thinking and you will start to see the thread.
This is the most difficult challenge you have to overcome because you have to re-educate your mind with the same mind that has to be re-educated, and this process starts out of the trading field. In the far past someone told me to look for something that lies behind charts, he didn't tell me what to look for and subsequently I understood why: if he had I would never have taken him seriously.
When I finally got it, then he told me to look at charts because I would have been able to see the footprint left on them by what was liyng behind. Well, that was the logical thread I couldn't see, and I've been surprised to see that it was so simple and effective. But the biggest surprise occured when I became aware that I've seen it many times without knowing what was it; in other words I was looking without seeing.
It took me years of research and study to discover this stuff, and one thing I've learnt during this process is that:
- informations come to you when you are ready to receive them, not earlier nor later than that;
- to get ready to find informations you need to be open minded, once you see that what you are doing doesn't work do something different, get out of your usual environment, explore new fields, try to go where no one has ever been, do the opposite of what your rational mind suggests you.
Now, but this time only, I'm going to give a very important information that will hurt most of you: someone will laugh loud, someone will feel like I'm kidding you, but someone will begin to do his own work, maybe...
So, the information is the following:
if you want to understand trading don't look at trading, look at nature. If you understand how nature works then you will know how trading works.
Good luck to everyone.
The reason is that the common way of thinking is linear meanwhile you are facing with a no linear field. Change your way of thinking and you will start to see the thread.
This is the most difficult challenge you have to overcome because you have to re-educate your mind with the same mind that has to be re-educated, and this process starts out of the trading field. In the far past someone told me to look for something that lies behind charts, he didn't tell me what to look for and subsequently I understood why: if he had I would never have taken him seriously.
When I finally got it, then he told me to look at charts because I would have been able to see the footprint left on them by what was liyng behind. Well, that was the logical thread I couldn't see, and I've been surprised to see that it was so simple and effective. But the biggest surprise occured when I became aware that I've seen it many times without knowing what was it; in other words I was looking without seeing.
It took me years of research and study to discover this stuff, and one thing I've learnt during this process is that:
- informations come to you when you are ready to receive them, not earlier nor later than that;
- to get ready to find informations you need to be open minded, once you see that what you are doing doesn't work do something different, get out of your usual environment, explore new fields, try to go where no one has ever been, do the opposite of what your rational mind suggests you.
Now, but this time only, I'm going to give a very important information that will hurt most of you: someone will laugh loud, someone will feel like I'm kidding you, but someone will begin to do his own work, maybe...
So, the information is the following:
if you want to understand trading don't look at trading, look at nature. If you understand how nature works then you will know how trading works.
Good luck to everyone.