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What is your weekly return?

  • #201
  • Edited 7:45am May 1, 2011 6:55am | Edited 7:45am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
If it was as easy a +b = c as Douglas maintains it is, we would all be rich while robots did the work for us and he wouldn't need to write books
Plain truth. Here's an example of one of the most trivial mech that seems to be working so far. The amount of input data is ridiculous: a single daily candle. It's even less; it's two plain numbers. I have to admit there's a rather extremely huge risk applied - fixed frac 4% per trade. Therefore, the max DD is ugly 25% and compounded ROI is >1800% over 4 years. PF=2.36, 36% winners. Stops are always 20 pips only and average achieved pip gain is almost 3:1R. I do really know I might be totally ridiculous posting some MT4 backtest and draw any conclusions from it, but this was done on Dukascopy tick data (04/07 - 04/11) with real spread. I don't have reliable data for the time before but it seems to have the same behavior on previous metaquotes data (which says plain nothing).

Is it any worth? Will I trade it live? Probably not; the sample is way too small for my taste, and trade frequency too low. Another thing: it's not a general market inefficiency exploit. It exploits a small edge in one currency pair only (yep, it is the EU). It will never work on lower tf than daily, since the principle is based on a simple fact that a day is a day. It might be viable on other markets than fx but I don't have the time and means to investigate them. It's more of a hobby of mine to play with that kind of thing ;-)

EDIT: I still believe to work myself up to be more effective than an EA lol :-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached File(s)
File Type: zip STreport-a1-tickdata.zip   28 KB | 486 downloads
:-anything
  • #202
  • May 1, 2011 7:20am May 1, 2011 7:20am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
Its just that I have learnt that having no goal or expectation regarding returns is very helpful approach to trading. You are free to do your thing whatever that maybe and accept whatever you get, even losses for what they teach, with gratitude. This unrestrained mindset provides freedom in the moment and freedom is what you come to the market for in the first place. Having already achieved your goal, the result of your trades is not important and from that mindset superior performance is far more easily achieved. This is the psychology required...
I agree with this and this is how I traded for a few years when I had an employer supplementing my trading income Since I decided to throw my job in, I felt it was necessary to at least pull from the market what I would have got paid if I was still working. Anything above that is a bonus to me because all I'm concerned about is keeping myself out of an office.

So the mindset had to change again. I now trade with a certain monetary figure in mind that I would like to make (each week). So, at least, I have something to aim for because I have found that one can get lazy. There will be days when I really can't be bothered so I don't. And there will be days when I'm really in the mood ... lol ... and feeling the market so on those days I tend to capitalise on the mood to make up for the days when I can't be bothered. This can also be a negative though (having a certain monetary figure in mind) because I've found that if I hit my target earlier on in the week (say Wednesday) I'll tend to cruise it for the rest of the week. And, of course, you will have those days where you just don't seem to be able to read the market.

So many hurdles in this constantly changing market.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #203
  • May 1, 2011 8:45am May 1, 2011 8:45am
Quoting Patience
Those drawdown figures aren't correct either. I was in more drawdown than that at times. I should have blanked the drawdown figures out.

But thanks anyway
//---
//---

hey miss p...... the % drawdown figures appear misleading on my ibfx accounts also..... course it could be my missunderstanding of drawdown's calculation....... but the amount shown is never anywhere near the max % truely seen......

5662.7 pips...... ....... makes me wonder who got that other 5000 pips i lost......


sure wish you'd invest my losing's in the land downunder...... i've had a hankerin to go huntin down there for quite some time.......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #204
  • May 1, 2011 9:55am May 1, 2011 9:55am
Quoting hayseed
//---
//---

hey miss p...... the % drawdown figures appear misleading on my ibfx accounts also..... course it could be my missunderstanding of drawdown's calculation....... but the amount shown is never anywhere near the max % truely seen......

5662.7 pips...... ....... makes me wonder who got that other 5000 pips i lost......


sure wish you'd invest my losing's in the land downunder...... i've had a hankerin to go huntin down there for...
Yeah, I can't truly say what they would have been with those two accounts but it was more than advertised. I just try to keep them all finely balanced ... like walking a tightrope at times. Whatchu talkin' bout anyway in regard to my pips? I know you make that in one trade. Now don't be shy Hayseed. Show 'em how it's done

Can't say I know of any hunters although I do remember eating wild pig once shot in the surrounding bush on an island in the Marlborough Sounds. Diving was all the rage when I was there with paua and crayfish being the targets.

Have we taken another thread off on a tangent? LOL
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #205
  • May 1, 2011 12:56pm May 1, 2011 12:56pm
Excellent post! Love it!

Quoting flyer415
Just a comment if I may....
  • #206
  • May 2, 2011 9:53am May 2, 2011 9:53am
A picture worth a thousand words. One of those wishing for 5% a day ....

Real account too.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5 percent a day.png Size: 58 KB


http://www.myfxbook.com/members/goli...fitmonth/98497
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #207
  • May 2, 2011 5:17pm May 2, 2011 5:17pm
Quoting Patience
A picture worth a thousand words. One of those wishing for 5% a day ....

Real account too.


"PAMM system".. wow. But it's clear that goliat's main failure was risk management, I'm suspicious there was no real risk management at all. At certain point he probably gave up and switched to hope&pray mode. All this can be caused by psychology, but it seems his PAMM-project was flawed in more aspects. He acquired small pip gains and let the losers drift around from the very beginning. I can imagine it was some "semi-driven" EA trading.

I believe only the "I'm right or I'm out" approach can work in trading. Maybe I'm wrong and too simplistic; there are many ppl using various hedging methods, recovery methods and other trade-out-of-the-failure methods. It may succeed many times, but I think they are only shifting the inevitable blowout into the future.
:-anything
  • #208
  • May 2, 2011 5:20pm May 2, 2011 5:20pm
Quoting Patience
A picture worth a thousand words. One of those wishing for 5% a day ....

Real account too.
Patience, I just wanted to say that IMO it's very brave and honest of you to post this. You have my utmost respect.

David
  • #209
  • May 2, 2011 5:40pm May 2, 2011 5:40pm
Quoting tritom
I believe only the "I'm right or I'm out" approach can work in trading. Maybe I'm wrong and too simplistic; there are many ppl using various hedging methods, recovery methods and other trade-out-of-the-failure methods. It may succeed many times, but I think they are only shifting the inevitable blowout into the future.
can't agree one bit more. also, there is always going to be at least that one person who lucks-out and lasts long enough before the tears start to then entice an army of ignorance to follow down the garden path.

edit : also, just looking at that PAMM shenanigans... look at the equity. it's clear the whole situation was hope and pray. close small winners and never close a loser. what a fail.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #210
  • May 3, 2011 7:26am May 3, 2011 7:26am
Quoting nubcake
can't agree one bit more. also, there is always going to be at least that one person who lucks-out and lasts long enough before the tears start to then entice an army of ignorance to follow down the garden path.

edit : also, just looking at that PAMM shenanigans... look at the equity. it's clear the whole situation was hope and pray. close small winners and never close a loser. what a fail.
Long tails (and small heads ??) is The Secret
  • #211
  • May 3, 2011 7:45am May 3, 2011 7:45am
Quoting Patience
A picture worth a thousand words. One of those wishing for 5% a day ....

Real account too.

Attachment

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/goli...fitmonth/98497
Average win 12 pips

Average loss 300 pips


That's not really trading, is it?
  • #212
  • May 3, 2011 3:13pm May 3, 2011 3:13pm
Quoting hanover
Patience, I just wanted to say that IMO it's very brave and honest of you to post this. You have my utmost respect.

David
You misunderstand, that is not her account
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #213
  • May 3, 2011 3:37pm May 3, 2011 3:37pm
Quoting Trotty
Average win 12 pips

Average loss 300 pips


That's not really trading, is it?
of course that is trading. the trader "just needs to get their psychology right", right?
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #214
  • May 3, 2011 8:22pm May 3, 2011 8:22pm
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
You misunderstand, that is not her account
In that case, I'll post what I was originally going to say, as a note to any newbies (after all, this is the Rookie forum). This is a classic illustration of:

1. Complete lack of risk management (as has already been pointed out).

2. Proof that a 95% win rate, in itself, is not necessarily enough.

3. The fact that the red line (closed trades only) is irrelevant. The gold line (which includes unrealized P/L) is always the important one. To anybody who believes that "a loss is not a loss until the trade is closed": note that when the margin call occurs, the unrealized losses suddenly become very real !

4. Back to the topic of this thread: "what is your weekly return?". Well, the weekly return for this system was fantastic for a while. Again, it just goes to show that quoting return without mention of risk, or the nature of the MM involved, is completely meaningless.
  • #215
  • May 4, 2011 2:04am May 4, 2011 2:04am
Quoting hanover
4. Back to the topic of this thread: "what is your weekly return?". Well, the weekly return for this system was fantastic for a while. Again, it just goes to show that quoting return without mention of risk, or the nature of the MM involved, is completely meaningless.
That is why one-trade-at-a-time is the best practice to start with. It eliminates bad habits of averaging losers or cutting winners, and it also builds confidence.
  • #216
  • May 4, 2011 3:09am May 4, 2011 3:09am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
Congratulations, you have proven anybody can make a 25% return in a day with a demo account
(1) I see that was a brand new demo account with only the three trades. How many accounts did you toast before you could show this one?

Despite a heated debate about whether or not it is possible to do this, (2) nobody has yet provided a statement proving there claims that they are. Your attempt is an insult to our intelligence

Nice work in the demo trading contest, I would be happy with that. Unfortunately your...
1. I do not trade demo. That's why it's a new fresh account.

2 & 3. Do you really believe someone would be willing to post their live account statements on public forums? I believe you have no chance of seeing one


Cheers,

Fifty
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  • #217
  • May 4, 2011 3:37am May 4, 2011 3:37am
I am looking to start trading this plan ,hopefully soon with a live account,but need some feedback if I can improve it

basically it works with a strategy that would gives you a consistant minimum win/loss ratio of 60/40 so out of 10 trades you win 6 and 4 lossers,trading plan is based on each trade ratio of 1:1 target

For example on the winning trades we will try and profit over 1:1 or 1.5 win but on trading plan only register 100% return on winning trade the rest 50% is just left for bonus or drawdown ,in my exeperience out of say 6 wining trades I am sure I will atleast hit 2 trades with more then 1:1 profit factor

Each minimum of 3 trades taken or 60 trades per month ,Risk for each trade is 1.5% of Account
$1000 a/c = 1.5% = $15 per trade risk
work out your stoploss whatever it may be ,say 30 pips then $15/30=0.5 pip value, so you can work out your lot size accordingly and your target will will 30pips on winning trades we try and trail stop to get maxi return

please note : we only calculate 1.5% after every 60 trades have been taken so for first 60 trades we will only risk $15 per trade ,next month we start with new 1.5% of new balance of your a/c not counting the bonus money you get from winning trades only registering 1:1 ratios on your plan

hope it makes sense ,happy trading
Attached Fileshttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gifTrade Plan.pdf (106
  • #218
  • May 4, 2011 3:38am May 4, 2011 3:38am
Quoting fiftylots

Do you really believe someone would be willing to post their live account statements on public forums? I believe you have no chance of seeing one.

Fifty
Well, then there is no point in discussing this. This argument will go on and on and on without an end-result.

As long as no real account is being seen which can actually get the kinds of returns consistently, which you guys are talking about, it is just pure faith or belief that it is possible. But not at all a certainty or even likely event.

I go with science. As long as it's not proven, it doesn't exist.
  • #219
  • May 4, 2011 3:42am May 4, 2011 3:42am
Quoting Spacetec
I am looking to start trading this plan ,hopefully soon with a live account,but need some feedback if I can improve it...
This smells a lot like a promotion is coming up soon.

Open your own thread, if you want comments on your trading plan and line out the rules and on what stats you based your rules. This thread is not about discussing trading plans.
  • #220
  • May 4, 2011 4:04am May 4, 2011 4:04am
Quoting Custos
This smells a lot like a promotion is coming up soon.

Open your own thread, if you want comments on your trading plan and line out the rules and on what stats you based your rules. This thread is not about discussing trading plans.

very sorry ,will look for trading plan thread thnx
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