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Does the martingale system really work?

  • #401
  • Edited 5:25pm Dec 7, 2013 5:08pm | Edited 5:25pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I have a good feeling that you are insulting me, and trolling in this thread.
Meant no offence, really!
Crap is not such a rude word. I doubt you'll find a single thread without '(bull)shit' or 'crap'. I didn't insult you as a person. What you wrote - I comment as I see it.
I don't do the 'trolling' thing. I wrote what I meant.
Wanna prove me wrong? You'll never manage to prove these accounts do not exist or they are shown not as they are thus these are just your assumptions.
I'm not selling anything here. If people wanna try it - why not. Though, it's unreasonable - thus my comments.
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I will use a huge set of random 0,1`s marking win and losses in a 50-50% enviroment, which will be totally random, not pseudorandom, which i will get from random.org 0-s will mean a losing trade and 1's will mean a winner trade.
I doubt the reliability of this testing.
If you wanna try using these EAs you'll probably succeed in the long run [don't try others they're mostly unreliable]. BUT if you really wanna test that, you'll need to devote a decent amount of time to fine-tuning EAs. Thats a LOT of time. People I know spent somewhat about half a year on that. I doubt you'll waste so much time for the sake of it. If you wanna do it - go ahead. I'm not so sure, however, that you'll be able to gather enough data to really prove anything anyway. If you manage, though, that'll be a great contribution to FF.

EDIT: anyway will be interesting to see the results of that 'simulating' stuff
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #402
  • Dec 7, 2013 5:53pm Dec 7, 2013 5:53pm
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} Surely, it won't make you very wealthy. I doubt it'll make you any wealthy at all as majority of people don't know how to use martingale so that it's even low-profitable [but still]. Thus that belief that it can't be profitable [it can] which is based on people who are gamblers, come and say: here it is - we'll never lose and thinking they'll surpass Soros by Christmas, then get {quote} Furthermore, if even you know how to use it right, still, it's not such a good idea anyway! [as I explained] So, for those who managed to understand my concept...
Martingale profits are but debt to the broker/casino. Long-term this debt will be re-payed. That's what I meant.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #403
  • Edited 9:13pm Dec 7, 2013 8:53pm | Edited 9:13pm
Ok it took me 4 hours of work, but whatever it was worth of it.Now we can close any doubts and misunderstandings about martingale once and for all.
This program is simulating martingale situations based on your rules.I will call it:

Martingale Tester


The rules are:
-start with x amount of cash, customizable
-you can set the martingale level to x amount (trade size *(2^x), where 0 martingale level will represent the trade size, 1 will represent trade size *2 and so on...)
-double trade size (customizable) when lose, and reset it to ^1 after win
-if trade size or trade size at any power, aka the level of martingale is bigger than our equity, then the test is finished and the results are shown
-you cannot blow up the account since we will stop the martingale if the trade size is bigger than the equity, thus still ending our win streak in a huge loss, but we stop just before blowing up the entire account which is almost the equivalent, so you technically wont end up with negative equity, because you would neither do in FOREX because of the MARGIN CALL right before blowing up the entire cash, which is equivalently bad, but still save some money to be more realistic.
-if the database is over the test is finished and results are shown

The database format:
- only .txt files are allowed
- the trades are coded in 0's and 1's, the 0 representing a loss, and a 1 representing a win (only 0 and 1 sequence is allowed, no other numbers!!)
- the format is the following, must be a sequence of 0 and 1 , space and tab is allowed between the characters but no other characters (like , ; or | are not allowed), so the following sequence will probably show error:
0,1,0,1,0,1 (not correct format)
here is how it should look
0 1 0 1 0 1 (correct format)
010101 (correct format)
0 1 0 1 0 1 (correct format)

You can get real random sequences at http://www.random.org/bytes/
Or use the .txt file i included in the zip , which i got also from there, not PSEUDO-RANDOM numbers will not work, it must be true random numbers, so that the normal distribution to be accurate

Instructions:
-starting cash : the amount of cash to start with and simulate
-martingale level: the level of martingale ,(trade size *(2^x) ),where 0 martingale level will represent the trade size, 1 will represent trade size *2 and so on...
-trade size: the size of trade in cash (must be smaller than the starting cash)
-after how many trades to withdraw money: it will withdraw cash from the current equity,regardless if its winner or loser, after x amount of trades
-how much money to withdraw: amount of money to withdraw in percentage relative to the current equity
(if you dont want money to be withdrawn then put there 0%)

- load the .txt file with the 0's and 1's then press start and you can see the graph and the results on the second tab of the page

Note, my true random 0 and 1's have a mean of 0.5 or atleast close to it, if you want to simulate this on other percentages, like a 70% win and 30% lose setup then get yourself random data which have that kind of probability

But note the program doesnt simulate spread and slippage so in real market conditions it would be alot worse, since if you have a 1:1 RR system in forex, that is only about 0.95:1 with spread, so its worse.Take that also in consideration.

Good luck! Now i hope we can settle down this dispute, i`m waiting for your feedback guys.


Virus scanners found nothing:
https://www.virustotal.com/en/file/f...is/1386470766/
http://r.virscan.org/report/29709af1...7274a5960.html
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Martingale Tester by PROXIMUS.zip   9.1 MB | 878 downloads
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #404
  • Dec 8, 2013 4:38am Dec 8, 2013 4:38am
Quoting vox dei
{quote} Martingale profits are but debt to the broker/casino. Long-term this debt will be re-payed. That's what I meant.
Oh, I got what you meant!
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #405
  • Dec 8, 2013 4:50am Dec 8, 2013 4:50am
Six ridiculous months of research are not at all a LOT of time (with capitalization). Learning is never a waste of time.
The only waste of time is to try explaining something to someone who wants to keep believing the opposite despite any of proof.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #406
  • Dec 8, 2013 5:05am Dec 8, 2013 5:05am
Quoting Proximus
Martingale Tester
Try this input:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 124 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot5.png Size: 110 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot6.png Size: 111 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 127 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 128 KB

Showing profit!
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #407
  • Dec 8, 2013 5:59am Dec 8, 2013 5:59am
Quoting PipMeUp
The only waste of time is to try explaining something to someone who wants to keep believing the opposite despite any of proof.
If that's related to me:
1) You'll never prove those accounts' logs are not genuine.
2) Go try the tester with my input and see the proof [experiment if you want] - it works just as i said it would.
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #408
  • Dec 8, 2013 8:09am Dec 8, 2013 8:09am
A martingale level of 1 isn't really a martingale...

The 5 sets of parameters destroy the account, as expected. I don't see the long term profitability.

It's like betting the house and getting a lucky 4:1 winner trade followed by a loser that wipes the account.
I have to admit that it is a very good for a lotery ticket but I know nobody who makes a living from scratching cards.
Could have also happen in the reverse order. First you lose it all and after... oh sorry no after.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #409
  • Dec 8, 2013 8:35am Dec 8, 2013 8:35am
Quoting PipMeUp
A martingale level of 1 isn't really a martingale... The 5 sets of parameters destroy the account, as expected. I don't see the long term profitability. It's like betting the house and getting a lucky 4:1 winner trade followed by a loser that wipes the account. I have to admit that it is a very good for a lotery ticket but I know nobody who makes a living from scratching cards. Could have also happen in the reverse order. First you lose it all and after... oh sorry no after.
OMG.

Read please thoroughly!!!

1) You shouldn't put all the capital you wanna risk in one account. 1/10 will do.
2) You set martingale working with input above.
3) You withdraw profits regularly.
4) You blow up - OH, YES YOU WILL BLOW UP - you will, that's part of the plan! Now or not - hell of a something, play your probability game and find out what's the probability to blow 10 accounts in a row without profit. I bet it's about the same as a long losing streak which will blow up YOUR account with YOUR system.
5) You get the profit as sum you've withdrawn exceeds the sum of initial capital! [on average and in the LOOONG run]
6) You start the new account and do it over and over!!!

EDIT: sum you'll withdraw from ONE account may as well be 0 as you said BUT we are talking about LONG run... And this tester is showing what's gonna be in the long run!!!
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #410
  • Dec 8, 2013 8:37am Dec 8, 2013 8:37am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} Try this input: {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} Showing profit!
You're totally missing the point.
  • #411
  • Dec 8, 2013 8:48am Dec 8, 2013 8:48am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} You're totally missing the point.
Yep, absolutely!

Now serious: hope you didn't read my previous post yet so - do it...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #412
  • Dec 8, 2013 8:50am Dec 8, 2013 8:50am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} Yep, absolutely! Now serious: hope you didn't read my previous post yet so - do it...
Congratulations, you've found the magic money generator that requires no brains or understanding of the market!!

I guess all that's left now is for you to cash in on your brilliant plan, like all the other people who thought they found the magic configuration.
  • #413
  • Dec 8, 2013 8:54am Dec 8, 2013 8:54am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Congratulations, you've found the magic money generator that requires no brains or understanding of the market!! I guess all that's left now is for you to cash in on your brilliant plan, like all the other people who thought they found the magic configuration.
You gotta be kiddin me. I DON'T and WON'T use martingale as I use another system which allows compounding and is much more profitable.
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #414
  • Dec 8, 2013 9:00am Dec 8, 2013 9:00am
Quoting Mikkk01
4) You blow up - OH, YES YOU WILL BLOW UP -you will, that's part of the plan!
Oh sorry we don't share exactly the same plan...
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #415
  • Dec 8, 2013 9:16am Dec 8, 2013 9:16am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} You gotta be kiddin me. I DON'T and WON'T use martingale as I use another system which allows compounding and is much more profitable.
Why use another system when you've found the holy grail though? Your post above is bulletproof.
  • #416
  • Dec 8, 2013 9:24am Dec 8, 2013 9:24am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Oh sorry we don't share exactly the same plan...
Ok, you didn't get it? That only means you didn't get it.
It's the same as a loss in usual strategy. If you deny the loss - that's not my problem.
Test proved it works, if you can't see the results - well, not my problem either.
I'm not selling anything here and don't advise to use martingale to anybody anyway.
I don't see any reason in making you think it works - I dont give a damn actually.
I've wrote everything I wanted to, explained several times, summed up recently and here we have test results - you disregard that - ok - I don't really care.
I won't post any more explanations - everything is here for those who wanted to understand.

Although, I would like to point out something much more important that [no matter for what reason]
we all here agree about:

1) All you guys and I - we don't use martingale.
2) We'd never advise it to anybody for use.
3) So, for god's sake - don't use it as there're simply better options!!!



Regards.
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #417
  • Dec 8, 2013 9:24am Dec 8, 2013 9:24am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Why use another system when you've found the holy grail though? Your post above is bulletproof.
Bulletproof is here: http://www.bulletproofexec.com/
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #418
  • Edited 10:02am Dec 8, 2013 9:52am | Edited 10:02am
Quoting PipMeUp
A martingale level of 1 isn't really a martingale... The 5 sets of parameters destroy the account, as expected. I don't see the long term profitability. It's like betting the house and getting a lucky 4:1 winner trade followed by a loser that wipes the account. I have to admit that it is a very good for a lotery ticket but I know nobody who makes a living from scratching cards. Could have also happen in the reverse order. First you lose it all and after... oh sorry no after.
True and the funny think is that if you set the withdraw parameter to 0, it actually shows better results.

So by not withdrawing a single cent it will show (in average) better results than with it.

Withdrawing only helps you to lock a certain % of the equity but that always be smaller than your initial value, since the cash you left in your real account will go away more faster than if it were the total amount.

If you now withdraw money you might blow up the account (or atleast 95% of it because Margin Call will show up), but you might get your goal.I should add an option to set max number of trades, it would be interesting.

Quoting PipMeUp
A martingale level of 1 isn't really a martingale...
It is, remember the martingale counts from 0, so that text box is representing the power of 2, starting from 0 which is 2^0=1

0 -> 2^ 0 =1 * trade size
1 -> 2 ^ 1=2 * trade size
2 -> 2 ^ 2=4 * trade size
3 -> 2 ^ 3=8 * trade size
...............
And so on
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #419
  • Dec 8, 2013 11:09am Dec 8, 2013 11:09am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} True and the funny think is that if you set the withdraw parameter to 0, it actually shows better results. So by not withdrawing a single cent it will show (in average) better results than with it. Withdrawing only helps you to lock a certain % of the equity but that always be smaller than your initial value, since the cash you left in your real account will go away more faster than if it were the total amount.
Yep surely you're right!
How come I didn't see so huge loss I'll get on average in the long run?
And of course - when you lose all your capital inevitably in the long run without withdrawals it's much better...
Thank you for showing truth to me!
http://data3.floomby.com/files/share...vfs3EOG3vg.png
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #420
  • Dec 8, 2013 11:42am Dec 8, 2013 11:42am
Quoting Mikkk01
If you deny the loss - that's not my problem.
What are you talking about?
You say it works and that it blows the account at the same time.
You say you don't use it despite it works.
You say here are the parameters to make it work where all of examples show wrecking accounts.

I keep repeating that it won't work and I am the one who denies the loss??? I ONLY see loss here!


Quote
How come I didn't see so huge loss I'll get on average in the long run?
Have a look at the equity curve instead

Quote
True and the funny think is that if you set the withdraw parameter to 0, it actually shows better results.
Completely normal. Martingale requires infinite capital. By withdrawing money you just make things even worse.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
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