BOE's Bailey says picture of gradually softening labor market

BoE's Bailey: Decision to hold rates was an ‘active choice' BoE Gov. Bailey: We have to monitor the situation in the Middle East and how it affects the UK economy and inflation very closely and adjust policy as required BoE Gov. Bailey: Having taken expected cuts off the table for now, we have already tightened policy considerably in response to the shock relative to what had been expected by markets. BOE governor Bailey: We have already tightened policy by taking rate cuts off the table On the headline remark, he's not wrong. That being said, the opposite is also true. With markets now leaning more towards pricing in hawkish steps by the BOE, not raising interest rates this year will end up loosening monetary policy instead. So, there's that for Bailey & co. to consider. Much like all major central banks right now, the BOE also wants to play for optionality for as long as they can get away with it. Policymakers all want to wait to see how the US-Iran conflict will change next and they will be hoping for more clarity when an agreement is eventually announced. However, that is not to say that the war will end and the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened immediately. In fact, the reality of the situation may be far from that. The BOE for now looks to be putting off a rate hike next month but market pricing suggests that the central bank will have to take action BoE Gov. Bailey: There is a case for tolerating temporarily above target inflation