BoC Press Conference: Policy Rate Announcement – December 2025

Good morning. I’m pleased to be here with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers to discuss today’s monetary policy decision. Today, Governing Council maintained the policy interest rate at 2.25%. We have three main messages. First, steep US tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos and lumber have hit these sectors hard, and uncertainty about US trade policy is weighing on business investment more broadly. But so far, the economy is proving resilient overall. Second, inflationary pressures continue to be contained despite added costs related to the reconfiguration of trade. Total CPI inflation has been close to the 2% target for more than a year now, and we expect it to remain near the target. Third, in the current situation, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Nevertheless, uncertainty remains high and the range of possible outcomes is wider than usual. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. BoC's Gov. Macklem: Canadian economy is proving resilient overall despite US tariffs. BoC's Gov. Macklem: We agreed that a policy rate at the lower end of the neutral range was appropriate to provide some support for the economy. BoC's Gov. Macklem: Our view is still that GDP will expand at moderate pace in 2026 and that inflation will remain close to target. BOC: REITERATES THAT IF OUTLOOK CHANGES, IT IS PREPARED TO RESPOND

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Major economies around the world continue to show resilience to US trade protectionism, but uncertainty is still high. In the United States, economic growth is being supported by strong consumption and a surge in AI investment. The US government shutdown caused volatility in quarterly growth and delayed the release of some key economic data. Tariffs are causing some upward pressure on US inflation. In the euro area, economic growth has been stronger than expected, with the services sector showing particular resilience. In China, soft domestic demand, including more weakness in the housing market, is weighing on growth. Global financial conditions, oil prices, and the Canadian dollar are all roughly unchanged since the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Canada’s economy grew by a surprisingly strong 2.6% in the third quarter, even as final domestic demand was flat. The increase in GDP largely reflected volatility in trade. The Bank expects final domestic demand will grow in the fourth quarter, but with an anticipated decline in net exports, GDP will likely be weak. Growth is forecast to pick up in 2026, although uncertainty remains high and large swings in trade may continue to cause quarterl BoC Rate Statement: Underlying inflation is still around 2.5%. BoC Rate Statement: Q4 GDP growth likely to be weak. Final domestic demand will grow in Q4 but will be offset by a decline in net exports. BoC Rate Statement: Canadian labor market is showing some signs of improvement. BoC Rate Statement: Q4 GDP growth likely to be weak; final domestic demand will grow in Q4 but will be offset by a decline in net exports.

The Bank of Canada is set to announce today its last interest rate decision of the year. In its most recent decision in October, the central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 2.25 per cent. Market data shows most economists expect the bank will leave the benchmark rate unchanged as economic trends improve. Jobs data out last ...