CA Overnight Rate
It's an important driver of risk appetite - lower interest rates decrease borrowing costs. Reduced costs to borrow will spur investment spending;
The rate decision is usually priced into the market, so it tends to be overshadowed by the BOC Rate Statement, which is focused on the future;
- CA Overnight Rate Graph
- History
Expected Impact / Date | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
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Jan 29, 2025 | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.25% |
Dec 11, 2024 | 3.25% | 3.25% | 3.75% |
Oct 23, 2024 | 3.75% | 3.75% | 4.25% |
Sep 4, 2024 | 4.25% | 4.25% | 4.50% |
Jul 24, 2024 | 4.50% | 4.50% | 4.75% |
Jun 5, 2024 | 4.75% | 4.75% | 5.00% |
Apr 10, 2024 | 5.00% | 5.00% | 5.00% |
Mar 6, 2024 | 5.00% | 5.00% | 5.00% |
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- CA Overnight Rate News
- From bankofcanada.ca|Jan 29, 2025|1 comment
Good morning. I’m pleased to be here with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers to discuss our policy decision and the Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Today, we lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points. This is our sixth consecutive decrease and brings our policy rate to 3%. We also announced our plan to complete the normalization of our balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening. The Bank will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes this year and then begins to grow modestly in line with economic growth. We have three main messages this morning. First, inflation has been close to the 2% target since last summer. Monetary policy has worked to restore price stability. Second, lower interest rates are boosting household spending, and economic activity is picking up. Third, the potential for a trade conflict triggered by new US tariffs on Canadian exports is a major uncertainty. This could be very disruptive to the Canadian economy and is clouding the economic outlook. post: BOC'S GOV. MACKLEM: MONETARY POLICY CANNOT OFFSET TARIFFS BUT CAN HELP THE ECONOMY ADJUST. post: BOC'S GOV. MACKLEM: LONG-LASTING AND BROAD-BASED TRADE CONFLICT WOULD BADLY HURT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN CANADA. post: BOC'S GOV. MACKLEM: WITH INFLATION BACK AROUND THE 2% TARGET, WE ARE BETTER POSITIONED TO BE A SOURCE OF ECONOMIC STABILITY. post: BOC'S GOV. MACKLEM: WE CAN'T USE RATES TO LEAN AGAINST WEAKER OUTPUT AND HIGHER INFLATION AT THE SAME TIME.
- From static.bankofcanada.ca|Jan 29, 2025
The economic outlook presented in this Monetary Policy Report does not incorporate any new US taris, although it does recognize that the threat of taris is already aecting nancial markets and business decisions. This assumption reects a situation that is evolving rapidly, along with the high degree of uncertainty around whether wide-ranging taris will be imposed and the specics of those taris and any possible retaliation. A detailed discussion of how the Canadian economy could be impacted if signicant new taris were to be imposed, including an illustrative scenario, can be found in In focus: Evaluating the potential impacts of US taris. Overview Ination in Canada has been around 2% since August 2024. Ination rates for most major components of the consumer price index are below their historical averages, but ination in shelter prices is elevated and is easing slowly. Ination expectations have largely normalized. Ination is projected to be volatile through March, reecting the eects of the GST/HST holiday on some goods and services. Ination is expected to remain near the 2% target over the projection horizon. Growth in the Canadian economy was softer than expected in the third quarter of 2024, but there are signs activity has since gained momentum despite a slowdown in population growth. Past interest rate cuts are contributing to an increase in household spending and housing activity. The labour market is still soft, and there are some signs that wage growth has slowed. The economy remains in modest excess supply. Canadian economic post:
BOC: ANNUALIZED Q4 GDP SEEN AT 1.8% (VS 2.0% IN OCTOBER), Q1 2.0%. post:
BOC: INFLATION TO AVERAGE 2.3% IN 2025 (VS 2.2% IN OCTOBER), 2.1% IN 2026 (VS 2.0%). post:
BOC FORECASTS DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL EFFECT OF US TARIFFS. post: BOC: POTENTIAL OUTPUT GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO SLOW FROM 2.5% IN 2024 TO AROUND 1.5% ON AVERAGE OVER 2025 AND 2026, DOWN FROM OCTOBER FORECAST OF 1.9% IN 2025 AND 2026.
- From bankofcanada.ca|Jan 29, 2025
The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3%, with the Bank Rate at 3.25% and the deposit rate at 2.95%.1 The Bank is also announcing its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening. The Bank will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.2 Projections in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR) published today are subject to more-than-usual uncertainty because of the rapidly evolving policy landscape, particularly the threat of trade tariffs by the new administration in the United States. Since the scope and duration of a possible trade conflict are impossible to predict, this MPR provides a baseline forecast in the absence of new tariffs. In the MPR projection, the global economy is expected to continue growing by about 3% over the next two years. Growth in the United States has been revised up, mainly due to stronger consumption. Growth in the euro area is likely to be subdued as the region copes with competitiveness pressure post: BOC: RATE CUTS ARE STARTING TO BOOST ECONOMY; RECENT STRENGTHENING IN BOTH CONSUMPTION AND HOUSING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. post: BOC: CPI INFLATION WILL BE AROUND THE 2% TARGET OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS. post:
BOC ANNOUNCES AN END OF QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING, AND WILL GRADUALLY RESTART ASSET PURCHASES IN EARLY MARCH. post: BOC: IF BROAD-BASED AND SIGNIFICANT TARIFFS WERE IMPOSED, THE RESILIENCE OF CANADA'S ECONOMY WOULD BE TESTED.
- From thestar.com|Jan 29, 2025|1 comment
The Bank of Canada is expected to make a quarter percentage point cut to its key interest rate Wednesday morning in the face of political and economic uncertainties in the form of elections and U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. Experts largely believe the central bank, in its first rate announcement of 2025, will cut its overnight rate to three per cent, according to a Bloomberg survey of 22 economists. Bank Governor Tiff Macklem is expected to emphasize the increasing trade tensions and imminent provincial and federal ...
- From scotiabank.com|Jan 25, 2025
Welcome to tariff week. Or maybe it’s global central bank week. Or growth and inflation week. Or how about earnings week. If you think January has been exhausting—and I have some sympathy for that—then it’s not going to release its grip on you just yet as the final week of the month is jam-packed with expected developments. Developments that may fan enormous market volatility. Eight central banks will weigh in with their first decisions of the new year this week including the Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bank of Canada, and several ...
- From economics.bmo.com|Dec 11, 2024
The Bank of Canada cut its key overnight rate 50 basis points to 3.25% today, as largely expected and its fifth consecutive trim for a cumulative 175 bps of rate relief. The Bank thus retains the crown of most aggressive rate-cutter in the world (no other G10 central bank has cut by more than 125 bps, and the Fed is at 75 bps so far). However, even with the meaty cut, the Canadian dollar actually found a footing after the announcement, as the Bank clearly signalled that the pace of cuts will cool markedly in coming meetings, assuming ...
- From bankofcanada.ca|Dec 11, 2024
Good morning. I’m pleased to be here with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers to discuss our policy decision. Today, we lowered the policy interest rates by 50 basis points. This is our fifth consecutive decrease since June and brings our policy rate to 3¼%. Monetary policy has worked to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Our policy focus now is to keep inflation close to target. Let me outline what we’re seeing in the economy, and how that played into our decision. In the United States, the economy continues to show ...
- From bankofcanada.ca|Dec 11, 2024|4 comments
The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3¼%, with the Bank Rate at 3¾% and the deposit rate at 3¼%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization. The global economy is evolving largely as expected in the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, the economy continues to show broad-based strength, with robust consumption and a solid labour market. US inflation has been holding steady, with some price pressures persisting. In the euro area, recent indicators point to weaker growth. In China, recent policy actions combined with strong exports are supporting growth, but household spending remains subdued. Global financial conditions have eased and the Canadian dollar has depreciated in the face of broad-based strength in the US dollar. In Canada, the economy grew by 1% in the third quarter, somewhat below the Bank’s October projection, and the fourth quarter also looks weaker than projected. Third-quarter GDP growth was pulled down by business investment, inventories and exports. In contrast, consumer spending and housing activity both picked up, suggesting lower interest rates are beginning to boost household spending. Historical revisions to the National Accounts have increased the level of GDP over the past three years, largely reflecting higher investment and consumption. The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November as employment continued to grow more slowly than the labour force. Wage growth showed some signs of easing, but remains elevated relative to productivity. A number of policy measures have been announced that will affect the outlook for near-term growth and inflation in Canada. Reductions in targeted immigration levels suggest GDP growth next year will be below the Bank’s October forecast. The effects on inflation will likely be more muted, given that lower immigration dampens b post:
*BANK OF #CANADA CUTS KEY RATE 50 BPS TO 3.25%, MATCHING EST. - BBG *MACKLEM: 'WE ANTICIPATE A MORE GRADUAL APPROACH' TO POLICY *BOC DROPS PROMISE OF FURTHER CUTS IF FORECASTS MATERIALIZE *BOC: US TARIFF THREAT INCREASES UNCERTAINTY, CLOUDS OUTLOOK post: BOC: WE WILL EVALUATE NEED FOR FURTHER RATE CUTS ONE DECISION AT A TIME. post:
BOC: CANADIAN Q4 GROWTH LOOKS WEAKER THAN EXPECTED.
Released on Jan 29, 2025 |
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Released on Dec 11, 2024 |
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