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Is the Federal Reserve likely to cut interest rates in December? Here's what economists say.
Just a few weeks ago, a December interest rate cut was viewed as practically a done deal by many economists. Now, with fresh government data showing solid U.S. job growth in September, many forecasters think the Federal Reserve is likely to hold off lowering borrowing costs when policy makers meet next month. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut now stands at 22%, down from a likelihood of 97% as of mid-October, according to economists polled by financial data company FactSet. CME Fedwatch, a tool that forecasts rate cuts based on changes in the 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices, gives slightly better odds of ... (full story)
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NEW YORK FED'S WILLIAMS: FED CAN STILL CUT RATES IN THE NEAR TERM GIVEN CURRENT POLICY IS MODESTLY RESTRICTIVE WILLIAMS: INFLATION PROGRESS HAS STALLED, BUT SHOULD BE ON TRACK TO 2% IN 2027 *FED'S WILLIAMS STILL SEES ROOM FOR A NEAR-TERM RATE CUT 
Williams: Navigating Unpredictable Terrain Good morning. It’s a pleasure be here to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the Central Bank of Chile. The topic of my remarks today is inflation targeting, which is both an important part of Chile’s central banking history and a core foundation of successful monetary policy. Most central banks around the world have adopted inflation targeting regimes over the past 35 years, and Chile was among those leading the way. Although specifics vary across jurisdictions, these strategies share three principles: independence and accountability, transparency and the clear communication of an inflation target, and well-anchored inflation expectations, gained from the credibility that central banks build over time.1 Today I will discuss the success of inflation targeting strategies in helping central banks achieve price stability and better economic outcomes. I’ll also talk about how these strategies were critically important in managing uncertainty after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic—and how they helped countries bring inflation down while minimizing disruptions to financial markets and economies. Fed's Williams: Tariffs adding half to three-quarter PPT to inflation
Williams: Navigating Unpredictable Terrain Good morning. It’s a pleasure be here to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the Central Bank of Chile. The topic of my remarks today is inflation targeting, which is both an important part of Chile’s central banking history and a core foundation of successful monetary policy. Most central banks around the world have adopted inflation targeting regimes over the past 35 years, and Chile was among those leading the way. Although specifics vary across jurisdictions, these strategies share three principles: independence and accountability, transparency and the clear communication of an inflation target, and well-anchored inflation expectations, gained from the credibility that central banks build over time.1 Today I will discuss the success of inflation targeting strategies in helping central banks achieve price stability and better economic outcomes. I’ll also talk about how these strategies were critically important in managing uncertainty after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic—and how they helped countries bring inflation down while minimizing disruptions to financial markets and economies. Fed's Williams: Tariffs adding half to three-quarter PPT to inflation
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said he sees room for the US central bank to cut interest rates again in the near term as the labor market softens. In the text of a speech he delivered Friday in Santiago, Chile, Williams said downside risks to employment have increased while upside risks to inflation have eased. “I view monetary ...
Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Anna Paulson said on Thursday she is approaching the U.S. central bank's next meeting "cautiously," despite supporting its last two interest rate cuts, as the threat of prolonged high inflation needs to be balanced with the risk of rising unemployment. "On the margin, I'm still a little more worried about the labor ...
