Powell: Don't know what data we'll get before December FOMC; strongly differing views were really about the future

Fed's Powell: If we see data labour market is stabilizing, or strengthening, it would play into policy decisions. Fed's Powell: Not seeing an uptick in claims, or a downtick in openings, suggests gradual cooling, gives some comfort. FED’S POWELL: IF THERE WERE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE ECONOMY, WE WOULD LIKELY DETECT IT Fed's Powell: If there is a high level of uncertainty, that could be an argument for caution on moving. Fed's Powell: For today's rate cut, a strong, solid vote, and the strongly differing views were really about the future.

Fed's Powell: Tension between two goals, and strong views across committee. *POWELL: FED HAS NOT MADE A DECISION ABOUT DECEMBER MEETING FED’S POWELL: TODAY’S RATE CUT WAS A RISK-MANAGEMENT MOVE; DECISIONS GOING FORWARD WILL BE A DIFFERENT MATTER Fed's Powell: We can't address both employment, inflation risks with our one tool. FED’S POWELL: NOTES TIGHTENING IN MONEY MARKETS OVER THE PAST THREE WEEKS; ASSESSES RESERVES AS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AMPLE AND SEES LITTLE BENEFIT IN FURTHER BALANCE SHEET REDUCTION

POWELL: ANOTHER CUT IN DECEMBER IS FAR FROM ASSURED Fed's Powell: Strongly differing views at meeting about how to proceed. FED’S POWELL: IN DECEMBER, FED WILL ENTER THE NEXT BALANCE SHEET PHASE AND HOLD STEADY FOR A PERIOD FED’S POWELL: REINVESTMENT STRATEGY WILL ALIGN WEIGHTED AVERAGE MATURITY MORE CLOSELY WITH THE STOCK OF OUTSTANDING SECURITIES FED’S POWELL: NO DECISION MADE YET ON DECEMBER MEETING; FURTHER RATE REDUCTION IS NOT A FOREGONE CONCLUSION, WITH STRONG VIEWS AND TENSION BETWEEN POLICY GOALS ACROSS THE COMMITTEE

FED’S POWELL: DOESN’T PLACE MUCH WEIGHT ON NON-MARKET SERVICES DATA; NOTES INFLATION EXCLUDING TARIFF EFFECTS IS NOT FAR FROM THE 2% TARGET FED’S POWELL: ESTIMATES INFLATION MAY BE ABOUT 0.5 TO 0.6 PERCENTAGE POINTS ABOVE TARGET; DOES NOT SEE LABOR MARKET OR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS TIGHTENING IN A WAY THAT WOULD MAKE INFLATION MORE PERSISTENT FED’S POWELL: NOT ASSUMING TARIFF-DRIVEN INFLATION WILL BE ONE-TIME; SAYS FED IS MONITORING DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY FED’S POWELL: POLICY STANCE IS MODESTLY RESTRICTIVE, WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE LABOR MARKET’S GRADUAL COOLING POWELL: DATA CENTER INVESTMENTS AND AI IS A BIG DEAL

FED’S POWELL: ABSOLUTELY COMMITTED TO BRINGING INFLATION BACK TO 2%; SAYS THE FED’S COMMITMENT IS CREDIBLE AND FIRM POWELL: DON'T THINK WE'LL HAVE A VERY GRANULAR UNDERSTANDING OF ECONOMY WHILE SHUTDOWN IS ON Fed's Powell: Could imagine shutdown could affect December meeting. FED’S POWELL: ACKNOWLEDGES POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING MORE CAUTION IN THE ABSENCE OF DATA, THOUGH NOT COMMITTING TO SLOWING DOWN — SAYS SUCH A SCENARIO IS IMAGINABLE POWELL: MUCH OF THE TIME THE LAYOFFS ARE ABOUT AI; YES IT COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR JOB CREATION

POWELL: WE'VE MOVED 150 BASIS POINTS, NOW IN RANGE WHERE MANY ESTIMATES OF NEUTRAL RATE LIVE POWELL: SOME PEOPLE ON COMMITTEE FEEL IT'S TIME TO TAKE A STEP BACK FED’S POWELL: SOME MEMBERS OF THE COMMITTEE BELIEVE IT’S TIME TO TAKE A STEP BACK; NOTES LABOR MARKET IS A MORE RELIABLE INDICATOR THAN SPENDING, WHICH IS CURRENTLY SHOWING A MORE DOWNBEAT SIGNAL *POWELL: GROWING CHORUS FEELS LIKE MAYBE FED SHOULD WAIT A CYCLE FED’S POWELL: YOU SAW THAT SENTIMENT IN SEPTEMBER AND IN RECENT REMARKS, AND CAN EXPECT IT TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MINUTES FROM TODAY’S MEETING