Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 16–17, 2025, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2025 to 2028 and over the longer run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. “Appropriate monetary policy” is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability *FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST END-’28 AT 3.1% *FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST END-’26 AT 3.4%; PREV. 3.6% *FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST END-’27 AT 3.1%; PREV. 3.4% *FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST END-’25 AT 3.6%; PREV. 3.9% *FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST LONGER-RUN AT 3%; PREV. 3.0% Dot plot forecasting two more rate cuts this year. The #Fed decreased the fed funds rate by 25bps as expected. In the dot plot, a majority of policymakers see 2 cuts in 2025. pic.twitter.com/Hn1tr3OT5i MORE FOMC: DOT PLOT SHOWS ONE PARTICIPANT WANTED FIVE MORE RATE CUTS THIS YEAR, PRESUMED TO BE MIRAN; UNCERTAINTY 'REMAINS ELEVATED' #FOMC #FederalReserve #economy

The September FOMC meeting did not disappoint. As was widely expected, the FOMC lowered the fed funds rate by 25 bps to 4.00%-4.25%. The move marked the first adjustment to the Committee's policy rate since December and reflected a shifting balance of risk between the FOMC's mandates of full employment and inflation. With the core PCE deflator running about ...

The September 2025 FOMC meeting will conclude on Wednesday, September 16 at 2:00 ET. Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference will begin at 2:30 ET. As of writing, Fed Funds futures traders are pricing in 96% odds of a 25bps interest rate cut per CME FedWatch (with an outside chance of a 50bps “double” rate cut). Assuming the Federal Reserve cuts interest ...