US retail sales up 0.6% in August from July even as tariffs hurt jobs and lead to price hikes | Crypto Craft

  • US retail sales up 0.6% in August from July even as tariffs hurt jobs and lead to price hikes

    From uk.finance.yahoo.com

    Shoppers increased their spending at a better-than-expected pace in August from July, helped by back-to-school purchases, even as President Donald Trump’s tariffs are starting to hurt the job market and lead to price hikes. Retail sales rose 0.6% last month from July, when sales were up a revised 0.6%, according to the Commerce Department’s report. The performance, announced Tuesday, was also likely helped by the continued efforts by Americans to keep pushing up purchases ahead of expected price increases. Moreover, higher prices could be bolstering the number as well. The increases followed two straight months ... (full story)

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ntrpy
Sep 16, 2025 5:43am
Permalink
My expectation of a weak "control group" was wrong. At +0.5%, this is a robust print that points to a strong start for Q3 goods consumption and will force economists to revise their GDP forecasts higher. This is the cleanest and most important signal from the report.

The strength was not just gasoline prices. The key driver was a massive +2.0% m/m surge in "Nonstore retailers" (e-commerce). This is a sign of a highly engaged and active consumer, directly refuting the idea that households are retrenching. This strength completely overwhelmed the expected drag from a moderation in auto sales.

The market was positioned for a stagflationary print (weak growth, hot inflation). What it got was a "hot growth, hot inflation" print. This is a fundamentally different and much more USD-positive environment. Hard data (spending) has officially trumped soft data (sentiment).
Reply
19monza64
Sep 16, 2025 11:29am
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Great analysis- Keep them coming . Appreciated.
The Original Analysis (For Gloomy Gus-types with an Abacus):
A top economic mind has discovered, to their absolute horror, that people are buying things... on the Internet. This is not a sign of a dynamic, technologically-advanced economy, oh no. It's a five-alarm fire! Those positive e-commerce numbers? They are the desperate, final whimpers of a broke and broken populace, forced at gunpoint to click "Buy Now, Pay Later" just to acquire essential survival goods—like artisanal dog socks and luxury electric egg slicers. It's a clear signal of the impending apocalypse. The dollar is doomed.

The Real Story (For Visionaries):
Oh, come on! This isn't fragility; it's collective genius! The masses have finally figured out how to beat the system. Why use your own money now when you can use someone else's money now and pay for it... later? It's the oldest and most noble of human traditions: mooching, but with an app.

What you call "debt-fuelled consumption," we call Liquid Cappuccino Flow Optimization. The modern consumer isn't "stressed," they are amateur financiers using BNPL (Buy Now, Play Later) credit to free up immediate capital for more important investments, like lottery tickets and cheesy puffs.

And the positive consequence? Here it is:

The Great Unshackling of Unbridled Prosperity:

The Home Gourmet Renaissance: By financing the electric egg slicer over 12 payments, the consumer immediately frees up cash to buy organic ostrich eggs. The economy benefits.

The Canine Serenity Dividend: The dog with thermal socks will no shiver in the winter. A serene dog is a dog that barks less, increasing the productivity of everyone working from home nearby. The GNP of "quiet living" skyrockets.

The Dollar Strengthens (Why Not?): If everyone is always buying everything, even on debt, American e-commerce and egg-slicer companies will become global titans. The world will need to buy dollars to invest in these pillars of human progress. The greenback will become as strong as the stainless steel used in the finest egg slicers.

In summary, the only "bearish thesis" here is for the professional pessimists who fail to see that buying things you don't need with money you don't have is the very bedrock of a glorious new economic dawn. The future is bright, shiny, and delivered within 24 hours with free returns.
Reply
ntrpy
Sep 16, 2025 10:57am — Edited
Permalink
Quoting ntrpy
My expectation of a weak "control group" was wrong. At +0.5%, this is a robust print that points to a strong start for Q3 goods consumption and will force economists to revise their GDP forecasts higher. This is the cleanest and most important signal from the report. The strength was not just gasoline prices. The key driver was a massive +2.0% m/m surge in "Nonstore retailers" (e-commerce). This is a sign of a highly engaged and active consumer, directly refuting the idea that households are retrenching. This strength completely...
Having thought about this a bit more, I have some further ideas & implications of this print:

Soft data (UoM survey) was the true signal:
- Surge in e-commerce likely a sign of consumer fragility, not strength, being enabled by credit facilities.
- Deepens bearish USD thesis and suggests market's initial bullish reaction to data was misinterpretation.

1. In-store Retail vs. Nonstore Retail (e-commerce)
- Census Bureau doesn't report single "in-store" aggregate, but can deduce by looking at components:
• Total Retail Trade Sales: +0.6%
• Nonstore Retailers (e-commerce): +2.0%
- If total +0.6% and huge component is growing at +2.0%, it means that, on weighted average basis, the rest of the sector, physical stores - must have been significantly weaker.
- Looking @ key physical store categories from the report:
• Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers: +0.5% (slightly weaker than the total)
• General Merchandise Stores: -0.1% (negative)
• Furniture Stores: -0.3% (negative)
• Building Materials: +0.1% (effectively flat)
- Physical retail space, representing bulk of trad consumer activity, was effectively flat-to-negative.
- Entire headline beat was driven almost exclusively by surge in e-commerce.

2. BNPL hypothesis: Debt-fuelled consumption
My hypothesis is this divergence is driven by low-friction credit like" Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL)
- Scenario:
• We have consumers who are demonstrably worried.
• UoM survey showed collapse in confidence and spike in unemployment fears.
• Real wages being squeezed by inflation; equals financially stressed consumers.
- In-Store:
• To make large purchases, consumers generally needs cash, debit, or credit
• Latter becoming harder to access as banks tighten lending standards in the face of slowing economy
- Online (e-commerce):
• At the checkout, consumer is presented with a host of BNPL options (Klarna, Clearpay etc.) that allows them to break large purchases into smaller, interest-free instalments
• BNPL often have much lower credit approval thresholds than traditional credit.

3. Summary
• Cash-strapped/worried consumers, to complete essential spending (back-to-school etc), gravitate towards channels that allow them to acquire the goods now, while deferring costs.
• Massive outperformance of e-commerce is not a sign of consumer strength, but sign of consumers leveraging accessible, short-term debt to maintain standards of living.
• Growth driven by pulling forward future demand and increasing household liabilities.
• Unsustainable in S/T; BNPL will act as a direct headwind on future consumption.
• Soft data exposed as true signal (UoM survey); hard data was an illusion created by nominal price effects & BNPL.
Reply
ntrpy
Sep 16, 2025 5:52am
Permalink
Quoting Trader#E14A
{quote} Thank you once again. Someone who actually brings value and no none sense feedback.
No worries, this gives the hawks on the FOMC an arsenal of ammunition. While they will acknowledge the weaker labour market, they can now point to a remarkably resilient consumer as a reason to be far more cautious about easing policy. A 50bps cut is now completely off the table.

The Fed can now deliver a "hawkish 25bps cut" tomorrow, watch for a dot plot and press conference that strongly pushes back against the market's aggressive easing expectations.
Reply
ntrpy
Sep 16, 2025 11:42am
Permalink
Quoting 19monza64
{quote} The Original Analysis (For Gloomy Gus-types with an Abacus): A top economic mind has discovered, to their absolute horror, that people are buying things... on the Internet. This is not a sign of a dynamic, technologically-advanced economy, oh no. It's a five-alarm fire! Those positive e-commerce numbers? They are the desperate, final whimpers of a broke and broken populace, forced at gunpoint to click "Buy Now, Pay Later" just to acquire essential survival goods—like artisanal dog socks and luxury electric egg slicers. It's a clear...
Pahahahaha, you should start doing these for every news print.

In all seriousness though, I'm only (currently) bearish about rate differentials, and potentially more realistic about economic cycles - otherwise I'm a pretty optimistic guy!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 9 KB
Reply
19monza64
Sep 16, 2025 10:03am
Permalink
Ah, perfect, finally some good news! Americans, modern-day heroes, wielded their credit cards in August with a courage that would put the Spartans at Thermopylae to shame. They fought strenuously against the monster of economic uncertainty by doing what they do best: shop, shop, shop!

Clearly, the fear that the precious iPhone Back to School Edition or the super-tariffed pencil set might increase in price at any moment triggered a survival instinct worthy of an apocalyptic movie. "Run, it's not a whim, it's for school!" a mom screams as she lunges for yet another pair of shoes.

And the Commerce Department's report? A hymn to human genius: retail sales rose 0.6%. In July? The exact same 0.6%. An admirable, almost poetic, consistency. It's as if, despite President Trump's tariffs which are kindly starting to nibble at the job market and wallets with affectionate price hikes, the nation decided in unison: "Meh, it can't get any worse. Wait, that sale sign on Chinese-made party supplies? Let's get two!"

So, to recap: prices are rising, tariffs are biting, but the sales number is going up anyway. It's a virtuous circle of pure capitalist optimism! Or maybe it's just that everyone is buying things before they cost an arm and a leg, which, honestly, is the only form of financial planning we fully understand.

We will continue to monitor the situation, ready to whip out our wallets at the first sign of panic. For the homeland and for the discount.
Reply
Vancarbon
Sep 16, 2025 11:21am
Permalink
Quoting ntrpy
{quote} Having thought about this a bit more, I have some further ideas & implications of this print: Soft data (UoM survey) was the true signal: - Surge in e-commerce likely a sign of consumer fragility, not strength, being enabled by credit facilities. - Deepens bearish USD thesis and suggests market's initial bullish reaction to data was misinterpretation. 1. In-store Retail vs. Nonstore Retail (e-commerce) - Census Bureau doesn't report single "in-store" aggregate, but can deduce by looking at components: • Total Retail Trade...
Great analysis- Keep them coming .

Appreciated.
Reply
Vancarbon
Sep 16, 2025 2:11pm
Permalink
Well Donald is here in the UK . Probably the highlight of his presidency , he’s a great admirer of the Royal family .

The red carpet will be rolled out , he’s going to Windsor with a 1000 year old history , he’ll be in his element . On this occasion I wish Donald and his wife a nice trip and enjoy the history and culture of your ancestoral roots .
Reply
fx6996
Sep 16, 2025 12:49pm
Permalink
Quoting Trader#ACB7
This is insanely acinine to believe any of this is true or honest.
So why are you here making a disciplined trading plan based upon faulty/false data?
I guess when you shorted E/U today is was all BS too?
Reply
fx6996
Sep 16, 2025 12:57pm
Permalink
Quoting ntrpy
{quote} Having thought about this a bit more, I have some further ideas & implications of this print: Soft data (UoM survey) was the true signal: - Surge in e-commerce likely a sign of consumer fragility, not strength, being enabled by credit facilities. - Deepens bearish USD thesis and suggests market's initial bullish reaction to data was misinterpretation. 1. In-store Retail vs. Nonstore Retail (e-commerce) - Census Bureau doesn't report single "in-store" aggregate, but can deduce by looking at components: • Total Retail Trade...
Ntrpy - I agree with VanCarbon - good analysis.

Let me throw two wrinkles at you:
1. e-commerce (at least in my household) is a sign of increasing income - I pay more for deliveries of groceries/clothes, etc., because frankly I hate shopping and I've been blessed to be able to afford it. Many many people who I know have opened "stores" on Shopify/Amazon and these side gigs are making a lot of people happy. Will these business amount to anything in the future? who knows but for now the extra sales income supports them

2. Consumer sentiment - too biased question based on biased media.

3. Boomers are retiring in record numbers - they are bringing billions of their retirement wealth to the markets via spending or inheritance something all analysist's overlook. Remember when the boomers pass it will be the largest transfer of wealth in the US economic history. Put that into your formulas and viola it changes the mix.
Reply
RayDalio
Sep 16, 2025 6:27am
Permalink
Keep in mind that back-to-school spending is a major driver of consumer activity, and it’s playing out at the same time as tariffs are raising costs across key categories (link). Because of that cause-and-effect relationship, we’ll probably see more of the impact showing up in the next month’s data.
Reply
Trader#E14A
Sep 16, 2025 5:50am
Permalink
Quoting ntrpy
My expectation of a weak "control group" was wrong. At +0.5%, this is a robust print that points to a strong start for Q3 goods consumption and will force economists to revise their GDP forecasts higher. This is the cleanest and most important signal from the report. The strength was not just gasoline prices. The key driver was a massive +2.0% m/m surge in "Nonstore retailers" (e-commerce). This is a sign of a highly engaged and active consumer, directly refuting the idea that households are retrenching. This strength completely...
Thank you once again. Someone who actually brings value and no none sense feedback.
Reply
Trader#8BEE
Sep 16, 2025 6:24am
Permalink
Nothing moved to any measurable degree on this announcement. Market doesn’t care at all. They are getting the rate cuts they want one way or another. But it does destroy the narrative that the US is falling apart, everything is terrible, dollar going to zero. You know, the narrative that 99% of of the posters on this website have who hate the US and lay awake at night dreaming of their delusional TDS lol.
Reply
Trader#66AA
Sep 16, 2025 1:49pm
Permalink
Quoting TraderTero
{quote} Maybe they are buying more guns and bullets for protecting themselves from each other.
Imagine if lefties didn't go around assassinating political figures
Reply
ntrpy
Sep 16, 2025 6:04am
Permalink
Quoting dotzac007
{quote} Is unemployment at 4.2% bad?? That is still full employment status for the USA!!! Trump is just trying to play politics with the fed so as to match china at the field of play.
I think employment prints are a bit hard to price in properly without other data, mainly because employment is so varied now. Zero hours contracts, gig economy etc.

Someone can work AND claim unemployment benefits at different thresholds. Unless you get very granular with the data, a lot of hot or cold prints can be discounted in various ways.
Reply
ntrpy
Sep 16, 2025 6:49am
Permalink
Quoting Trader#9264
{quote} Ok but wouldn't that make the rate cutting easier. Economy is alright, stress signs on job creation and not firing. So everything is moderately rosy. Then the Fed's projection of total 50bp cuts should play out as is. Atleast that's a given bcoz The Fed projects that and situation supports that. So they won't go into a cycle but they could do 2 cuts and then wait and see stance for December. If data then supports again, that would start the cycle right?? I'm learning so please don't be harsh
Well no, the Fed has a dual mandate. They want to fight inflation, and to support economic growth. Ultimately, despite this hot print, the bond market is not buying the growth story. US 10-year Treasury yields have barely moved higher and are still pinned near their lows around 4.04%.

This means the "smart money" in the bond market is not buying the "strong US growth" story. It is looking at the jobs data, the manufacturing data, and is still pricing in a significant slowdown. If the bond market does not believe the growth is sustainable, the FX market will not believe it either.

The fall in yields is the primary force weakening the dollar and pushing the dollar lower right now.
Reply
KJW001
Sep 16, 2025 5:51am
Permalink
Quoting ntrpy
My expectation of a weak "control group" was wrong. At +0.5%, this is a robust print that points to a strong start for Q3 goods consumption and will force economists to revise their GDP forecasts higher. This is the cleanest and most important signal from the report. The strength was not just gasoline prices. The key driver was a massive +2.0% m/m surge in "Nonstore retailers" (e-commerce). This is a sign of a highly engaged and active consumer, directly refuting the idea that households are retrenching. This strength completely...
I’m a bit confused! You say ‘hot growth’ but fail to maintain weak/declining employment. The US jobs data has been showing a lot of weakness from increased unemployment claims to massively reduced job creation, and most importantly the revision of close to a million jobs initially thought to be added to the economy for 2024-2025. How can there be hot growth while the labour market is declining? I understand the inflation but the labour doesn’t seem right to me
Reply
KJW001
Sep 16, 2025 5:56am
Permalink
Quoting Trader#D8FC
it rose because prices are much higher now
I was thinking the same thing. Of course retail sales rose as CPI increased even though PPI declined. Come to think of it for July PPI was much more than expected by CPI I came lower. Starting to think the really effects of tariffs & weakened job market on inflation has not yet fully shown on the US economy
Reply
fx6996
Sep 16, 2025 12:47pm
Permalink
Quoting TraderTero
{quote} Maybe they are buying more guns and bullets for protecting themselves from each other.
Here's a sad FACT: In Florida guns and other hunting/camping gear is tax-free from now until the end of the year. The state of Florida will be opening a bear hunting season, hence the tax free ammunition stop. Next thing you know people will fly down to Florida, relax for the weekend and stockpile ammo for their trip home to the killing fields of Chicago - it really is sad.
Reply
KJW001
Sep 16, 2025 1:06pm
Permalink
Quoting fx6996
{quote} Ntrpy - I agree with VanCarbon - good analysis. Let me throw two wrinkles at you: 1. e-commerce (at least in my household) is a sign of increasing income - I pay more for deliveries of groceries/clothes, etc., because frankly I hate shopping and I've been blessed to be able to afford it. Many many people who I know have opened "stores" on Shopify/Amazon and these side gigs are making a lot of people happy. Will these business amount to anything in the future? who knows but for now the extra sales income supports them 2. Consumer...

I agree with the point on boomers after all the hoarded all the wealth and complain that we are lazy. They fucked up the world and we are paying for their deeds. They should pass the wealth to the new generation that actually needs it
Reply
Luxyus
Sep 16, 2025 5:39am
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compulsive shopping lol
Polimini
Sep 16, 2025 7:19am
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Americans are addicted to shopping and debt, this doesn't sound surprising.
Reply
caca997
Sep 16, 2025 6:50am
Permalink
0.6% is still hella weak and the job market is more important, the economy is slowing down and we need that cut
Reply
dotzac007
Sep 16, 2025 5:58am
Permalink
Quoting Trader#58A7
{quote}This is evident in the real world by simply visiting your local mall or going to a restaurant or bar on any weekend. In all of 2025, in the real world, consumption has NOT slowed down even a little. Consumers have NOT pulled back in any meaningful capacity in all of 2025. Prices continue to rise moderately, but virtually no one has curtailed their spending. This will go on in perpetuity UNTIL employment meaningfully declines. For as long as virtually no one is actually firing anyone the party will continue. Less hiring won't do it, only layoffs...
Is unemployment at 4.2% bad?? That is still full employment status for the USA!!! Trump is just trying to play politics with the fed so as to match china at the field of play.
Reply
Jr123
Sep 16, 2025 2:59pm
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
Well Donald is here in the UK . Probably the highlight of his presidency , he’s a great admirer of the Royal family . The red carpet will be rolled out , he’s going to Windsor with a 1000 year old history , he’ll be in his element . On this occasion I wish Donald and his wife a nice trip and enjoy the history and culture of your ancestoral roots .
Sad the Queen passed away, would have been nice to see Trump weaving along trying to keep up to her.
Reply
Horiyomy
Sep 16, 2025 5:59am
Permalink
Quoting Trader#C218
Rate cut is a wrong turn right now
FED will cut rate..but at a lower rate/speed of 25bps
Reply
Trader#D8FC
Sep 16, 2025 5:44am
Permalink
it rose because prices are much higher now
Reply
petebird
Sep 16, 2025 7:07am
Permalink
Quoting Trader#8BEE
Nothing moved to any measurable degree on this announcement. Market doesn’t care at all. They are getting the rate cuts they want one way or another. But it does destroy the narrative that the US is falling apart, everything is terrible, dollar going to zero. You know, the narrative that 99% of of the posters on this website have who hate the US and lay awake at night dreaming of their delusional TDS lol.
This is because professional traders see past the ".........even as tariffs hurt jobs and lead to price hikes" ~ Second part of left wing Yahoo news biased headline, AND focus on the facts: "US retail sales up 0.6% in August from July...".
Reply
Thebighouse
Sep 16, 2025 10:12am
Permalink
I strongly disagree with the cause of the job market. The problem began with covid. Poor candidates/no candidates. Trillions of government debt made the economy look good. Lies made the economy look good. Honest jobs revisions show we have been sucking air for a long time. Democrats lie. Trump got a turd of an economy. It isn't tariffs. It is democrats.
Reply
TraderTero
Sep 16, 2025 10:27am
Permalink
Quoting 19monza64
Ah, perfect, finally some good news! Americans, modern-day heroes, wielded their credit cards in August with a courage that would put the Spartans at Thermopylae to shame. They fought strenuously against the monster of economic uncertainty by doing what they do best: shop, shop, shop! Clearly, the fear that the precious iPhone Back to School Edition or the super-tariffed pencil set might increase in price at any moment triggered a survival instinct worthy of an apocalyptic movie. "Run, it's not a whim, it's for school!" a mom screams as...
Maybe they are buying more guns and bullets for protecting themselves from each other.
Trader#58A7
Sep 16, 2025 5:52am
Permalink
Quoting ntrpy
My expectation of a weak "control group" was wrong. At +0.5%, this is a robust print that points to a strong start for Q3 goods consumption and will force economists to revise their GDP forecasts higher. This is the cleanest and most important signal from the report. The strength was not just gasoline prices. The key driver was a massive +2.0% m/m surge in "Nonstore retailers" (e-commerce). This is a sign of a highly engaged and active consumer, directly refuting the idea that households are retrenching. This strength completely...
This is evident in the real world by simply visiting your local mall or going to a restaurant or bar on any weekend. In all of 2025, in the real world, consumption has NOT slowed down even a little. Consumers have NOT pulled back in any meaningful capacity in all of 2025. Prices continue to rise moderately, but virtually no one has curtailed their spending. This will go on in perpetuity UNTIL employment meaningfully declines. For as long as virtually no one is actually firing anyone the party will continue. Less hiring won't do it, only layoffs will finally stop the music.
Reply
Trader#9264
Sep 16, 2025 6:15am
Permalink
Quoting Trader#6480
Rate cut us
Ok but wouldn't that make the rate cutting easier. Economy is alright, stress signs on job creation and not firing. So everything is moderately rosy. Then the Fed's projection of total 50bp cuts should play out as is. Atleast that's a given bcoz The Fed projects that and situation supports that. So they won't go into a cycle but they could do 2 cuts and then wait and see stance for December. If data then supports again, that would start the cycle right?? I'm learning so please don't be harsh
Reply
Trader#9264
Sep 16, 2025 6:17am
Permalink
Quoting ntrpy
{quote} No worries, this gives the hawks on the FOMC an arsenal of ammunition. While they will acknowledge the weaker labour market, they can now point to a remarkably resilient consumer as a reason to be far more cautious about easing policy. A 50bps cut is now completely off the table. The Fed can now deliver a "hawkish 25bps cut" tomorrow, watch for a dot plot and press conference that strongly pushes back against the market's aggressive easing expectations.
Ok but wouldn't that make the rate cutting easier. Economy is alright, stress signs on job creation and not firing. So everything is moderately rosy. Then the Fed's projection of total 50bp cuts should play out as is. Atleast that's a given bcoz The Fed projects that and situation supports that. So they won't go into a cycle but they could do 2 cuts and then wait and see stance for December. If data then supports again, that would start the cycle right?? I'm learning so please don't be harsh
Reply
HarryFX99
Sep 16, 2025 6:34am
Permalink
That was crazy guys the news swept the lows before skyrocketing to TP baby
Reply
Trader#6C7C
Sep 16, 2025 5:39am
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These market....
Reply
Trader#C218
Sep 16, 2025 5:42am
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Rate cut is a wrong turn right now
Reply
Trader#6480
Sep 16, 2025 5:56am
Permalink
Rate cut us
Reply
Trader#9C5F
Sep 16, 2025 6:01am
Permalink
USD - hot growth comming
Reply
Trader#CEA3
Sep 16, 2025 6:05am
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USD
Reply
Trader#8548
Sep 16, 2025 6:22am
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It's called "Back to School" shopping.
Reply
Trader#0EF3
Sep 16, 2025 6:29am
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Just cut it
Reply
Trader#ACB7
Sep 16, 2025 7:11am
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This is insanely acinine to believe any of this is true or honest.
Reply
Trader#350A
Sep 16, 2025 1:17pm
Permalink
Panic buying.. Buy goods before they increase even more...
Reply

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