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Fed meeting minutes will expose dissent, Powell’s keynote speech could signal pivot – Experts
Markets in the United States and around the world are anxiously awaiting the resumption of the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle, which began with a 50-basis-point cut in September 2024, but ended in December after two more 25-bps cuts. Gold traders are particularly eager to see lower rates, as the easing of the trade tariff premium has left precious metals prices stuck in a $200 range since late April. With the release of the minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting coming up Wednesday afternoon, and Fed Chair Powell’s keynote speech from Jackson Hole on Friday, the market may finally receive its first ... (full story)
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Participants continued their discussion related to the ongoing review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices (framework review). They observed that they had made important progress toward revising the Committee's Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy (consensus statement). Participants discussed potential revisions to the consensus statement that would incorporate lessons learned from economic developments since the 2020 framework review and would be designed to be robust across a wide range of economic conditions. Participants noted that the Committee was close to finalizing changes to the consensus statement and would do so in the near future. The manager turned first to a review of financial market developments. Over the intermeeting period, the expected path of the policy rate and longer-term Treasury yields were little changed, equity prices increased, credit spreads narrowed, and the dollar depreciated slightly. The manager noted that markets continued to be attentive to news related to trade policy, though markets' reaction to incoming information on this topic was more restrained than in April and May. Against this backdrop, the manager reported that the Open Market Desk's Survey of Market Expectations (Desk survey) indicated that the median respondent's expectations regarding both real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation were roughly unchanged. *FED: MANY NOTED FULL EFFECT OF TARIFFS COULD TAKE SOME TIME *FED: SEVERAL NOTED CONCERNS ABOUT ELEVATED ASSET VALUATIONS *FED: MAJORITY SAW INFLATION RISK OUTWEIGHING EMPLOYMENT RISK Fed Minutes: Some participants said it would not be feasible or appropriate to wait for complete clarity on the tariffs' effects on inflation before adjusting monetary policy. Fed Minutes: Several participants said that the current target range for the federal funds rate may not be far above its neutral level.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is in a tough spot heading into his Jackson Hole speech this Friday, says Robert Sockin, Citi director and global economist. Sockin says the impact of higher tariffs on inflation has Powell worried and recent labor market data means the Fed could cut rates as soon as September. Sockin is on "Bloomberg Surveillance."