Fed's Powell: Rates 'are not very high'; policy 'modestly restrictive' and without tariffs could anticipate more progress

Fed's Powell: No one holds rate path projections with a great deal of conviction. FED'S POWELL: CAN 'PERHAPS' SEE SLOW, CONTINUED COOLING IN LABOR MARKET, BUT NOTHING THAT'S TROUBLING || SAYS NO ONE HOLDS RATE PATH PROJECTIONS WITH GREAT DEAL OF CONVICTION || SAYS CAN MAKE A CASE FOR ANY OF THE RATE PATHS IN THE PROJECTIONS Fed's Powell: We likely will get to a place where rate cuts appropriate. FED'S POWELL: EXPECT TO LEARN A GREAT DEAL MORE OVER SUMMER || SAYS AT SOME POINT IT WILL BECOME CLEAR || SAYS DON'T KNOW WHERE TARIFFS WILL SETTLE OUT, HIGHLY UNCERTAIN Fed's Powell: We need to see some actual data to make decisions.

FED'S POWELL: WE'VE HAD GOODS INFLATION MOVING UP A BIT, EXPECT TO SEE MORE OF THAT IN SUMMER || SAYS EXPECT TO SEE MORE IN GOODS INFLATION THIS SUMMER || SAYS TAKES SOME TIME FOR TARIFFS TO WORK WAY TO CONSUMER Fed's Powell: We can't assume inflation will just move up, and then back down, as projections show. FED'S POWELL: IN LOOKING AT FED POLICY PATH PROJECTIONS, FOCUS ON NEAR-TERM; HARD TO FORECAST LONGER TERM || SAYS ADAPTING IN REAL-TIME TO ESTIMATES OF HOW HIGH TARIFFS WILL BE FED'S POWELL: SENTIMENT HAS COME UP FROM VERY LOW LEVELS, THOUGH STILL DEPRESSED || SAYS HOUSING SITUATION IS A LONGER-RUN PROBLEM *POWELL: BEST WE CAN DO FOR HOUSING IS RESTORE PRICE STABILITY *POWELL: ECONOMY APPEARS TO BE GROWING AT 1.5%-2% PACE

Fed's Powell: I don't see increased slack in labor market, except at the margin. *POWELL: CERTAINLY A RATE HIKE IS NOT THE BASE CASE AT ALL FED'S POWELL: 4.2% IS AT LOW-END OF ESTIMATES OF SUSTAINABLE LONG-RUN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE || SAYS US ECONOMY HAS DEFIED ALL KINDS OF FORECASTS FOR IT TO WEAKEN || SAYS PEOPLE ARE WRITING DOWN MOST LIKELY RATE PATH, OR LEAST UNLIKELY PATH