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  • US Consumer Price Index - September 2024

    From bls.gov

    The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in August and July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in September, and the index for food increased 0.4 percent. Together, these two indexes contributed over 75 percent of the monthly all items increase. The food at home index increased 0.4 percent in September and the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent over the month. The energy ... (full story)

Added at 8:33am

  • Consumer prices rose 0.2% in September, hotter than expected; annual rate increased 2.4%

    From cnbc.com

    The pace of price increases over the past year took an unexpected step higher in September as policymakers contemplate their next move on interest rates, according to a Labor Department report Thursday. The consumer price index, a broad gauge measuring the costs of goods and services across the U.S. economy, increased 0.2% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%. Both readings were 0.1 percentage point above the Dow Jones consensus. Excluding food and energy, core prices increased 0.3% on the month, putting the annual rate at 3.3%. Both core readings also were 0.1 percentage point above forecast. ... (full story)

Problems, problems, problems!! Panic stations Mr Powell.
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Boom
need to increase interest rates more
Follow price direction
They already said no drastic rate cuts
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Fed started cutting rates which will fuel inflation yet again. Also war spending will expand, war itself is going to expand. Price of oil is going above 100$ very soon.

News like this don't matter at all anymore. Totally useless. Fed started cutting rates and from that moment the Fed has become irrelevant.
Last month rate reduction was a mistake!!!
The market showed jobs are more important than inflation
Really interesting to see the CPI rate decrease from last months 2.5... This is the slow run into xmas.. I do believe the NFP figures and the CPI today overall indicate a continuance of cutting rates in line with everyone else on planet earth. try not to forget deflation was unbeatable for 10 solid years... could not hit 2% rate..
Hey these are all Goldilocks Numbers...Nothing to see here....
Another nonsense trading session
0.2% m/m just how the FED likes it.
I think Jobless claims (Highest since Aug 2023) is a huge issue for FED. Inflation they are sure. But job market cracking is a major issue to tackle. I see more cuts than planned to ensure economic activity is not moving towards a hard landing. Dollar weak to stable from existing rate.
USD still dovish
Follow price direction
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Dovish? Read the data itself
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This makes a good case for USD reducing rates to 25 instead of 50 NOW depending on labor market data tomorrow that'll reinforce certain stances as well. Namely the unemployment data
Due to two FED rate cut, US inflation is picking up again but the question is the labor market. Why unemployment claims is increasing more aggressively, this is not a sufficient FED rate cut to balance labor market. We need a 50 bps or more FED rate cut to balance the labor market. In that case, US inflation will pick up again and I can see no FED rate cut again further rather than FED raising the rate may possible again. Overall, I can see Bulish USD and USD/JPY uptrend remain valid
Quoting buttons
Really interesting to see the CPI rate decrease from last months 2.5... This is the slow run into xmas.. I do believe the NFP figures and the CPI today overall indicate a continuance of cutting rates in line with everyone else on planet earth. try not to forget deflation was unbeatable for 10 solid years... could not hit 2% rate..
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#doyourownanalysisordietryin
The fed has had it easy(ish) till now, employment has been pretty darn good and no recession, they only had to keep a higher rate , but now that they want to cut to “protect” employment , now as this report proves it’s going to risk inflation now coming back. How are they going to cut and keep inflation low? I don’t know. I think they’re going to find their job finally got “hard”
Quoting Ftmofx
Due to two FED rate cut, US inflation is picking up again but the question is the labor market. Why unemployment claims is increasing more aggressively, this is not a sufficient FED rate cut to balance labor market. We need a 50 bps or more FED rate cut to balance the labor market. In that case, US inflation will pick up again and I can see no FED rate cut again further rather than FED raising the rate may possible again. Overall, I can see Bulish USD and USD/JPY uptrend remain valid
I agree, if they cut more (and especially more than expected) to balance labor , inflation will tick up esp since yes unemployment may be high but new job growth is also very high, they may have to then stop cutting and Raise rates again. I also see more usd strength coming
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The market is going range mode. You make money if range market is your cup of tea, else probably lose sleep
Regarding the CPI data and it's immediate effect on the S&P: Sep CPI data was bearish and it pushed the S&P down when New York opened, but this month the bearish data is causing the NY open price to chop around - any thoughts?
Quoting AstroMercury
Regarding the CPI data and it's immediate effect on the S&P: Sep CPI data was bearish and it pushed the S&P down when New York opened, but this month the bearish data is causing the NY open price to chop around - any thoughts?
I don’t know I don’t trade S&P but maybe market interprets this months data as mixed so chopping since cpi was bearish but unemployment was higher than expected so there’s uncertainty about size of future rate cuts?
Quoting Dforexgold
{quote} I don’t know I don’t trade S&P but maybe market interprets this months data as mixed so chopping since cpi was bearish but unemployment was higher than expected so there’s uncertainty about size of future rate cuts?
But both CPI and unemployment claims being higher than expected are both bearish indicators?
higher than expected inflation data could indeed affect the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding the upcoming interest rate cuts. While the Fed had previously hinted at a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut, the rise in inflation could lead to a more cautious stance
Consumers have got used to inflation as they have increased wages and free money from stock market one way direction , so they care a dam abt interest rates
Job report indicate no need to cut rate
Quoting AstroMercury
{quote} But both CPI and unemployment claims being higher than expected are both bearish indicators?
You are exactly correct IMO. However , despite this the Dow for example is essentially staying level. This is where retailers get sent to
the cleaners if they don't go with the chopping. Also in the face of this bad news , plus Hurricane Milton in this instance , the markets repeatedly go contrarian. Only to correct a day or so later.
The Fed's worst nightmare has begun:

1. Core CPI inflation rises to 3.3%, the first increase since March 2023.

2. 258,000 people filed for unemployment this week, above expectations of 230,000.

Once the September jobs report is revised sharply lower, it will reveal the Fed's nightmare situation.

Rising inflation with rising unemployment.
Quoting unemployed
The Fed's worst nightmare has begun: 1. Core CPI inflation rises to 3.3%, the first increase since March 2023. 2. 258,000 people filed for unemployment this week, above expectations of 230,000. Once the September jobs report is revised sharply lower, it will reveal the Fed's nightmare situation. Rising inflation with rising unemployment.
Exactly….. once the fed has both rising inflation and rising unemployment they will have to decide what’s more important to them. Legally it’s supposed to be both so it’s very hard to imagine what they will do
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