Consumer Price Index - September 2021 | Crypto Craft

Consumer Price Index - September 2021 | Crypto Craft

Consumer Price Index - September 2021

From bls.gov

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.4 percent before seasonal adjustment. The indexes for food and shelter rose in September and together contributed more than half of the monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase. The index for food rose 0.9 percent, with the index for food at home increasing 1.2 percent. The energy index increased 1.3 percent, with the gasoline index rising 1.2 ... (full story)

Added at 7:33am

The consumer price index rose 5.4% year over year in September vs. 5.3% estimate

From cnbc.com

Consumer prices increased slightly more than expected in September at a time when inflation fears are growing, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. The consumer price index for all items rose 0.4% for the month, compared to the 0.3% Dow Jones estimate. On a year-over-year basis, prices increased 5.4% vs. the estimate for 5.3%. However, excluding volatile food and energy prices, the CPI increased 0.2% on the month and 4% year over year, against respective estimates for 0.3% and 4%. The news comes as Federal Reserve policymakers grapple with the prospect that inflation could be more persistent than thought. Central ... (full story)

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Oct 13, 2021 8:35am

Taper is coming November. Where are you guys getting your opinions?

They said November. Our jobs number was fine, good enough. And now our inflation prints were right in line today. USD probably gonna relax a little. Not really sell the news with new shorts but maybe ease the buying a little.

Nothing stopping a taper. It’s a matter how much in November and then market will watch how soon they expect to end the tapering.

Seriously. Watch the feds statements. And watch the markets reaction. That’s all you gotta do. Watch the bond market. Ya’ll are trading forex right? Well you gotta watch your underlyings bonds.

4

Oct 13, 2021 8:45am

Quoting RideTheWave

Disliked

Taper is coming November. Where are you guys getting your opinions? They said November. Our jobs number was fine, good enough. And now our inflation prints were right in line today. USD probably gonna relax a little. Not really sell the news with new shorts but maybe ease the buying a little. Nothing stopping a taper. It’s a matter how much in November and then market will watch how soon they expect to end the tapering. Seriously. Watch the feds statements. And watch the markets reaction. That’s all you gotta do. Watch the bond market. Ya’ll are...

Ignored

Retail almost always get the news wrong. Use it as a confirmation

Agreed, tapering will happen in November. FED will be hawkish today.

2

Oct 13, 2021 8:58am — Edited

Think about this
no QE has ever been successfully unwound since 2008 ,officially were on program 4 which is a monster program
but we also had the 'not QE' call that one 3.1
the faith in the Fed is unbelievable to carry out what they said

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Oct 13, 2021 12:12pm

Quoting Bones

Disliked

{quote} I haven't said anything political at all ,so in your mind lower participation rate and higher employment in a hugely stimulated environment is what they want ,so if even more people leave the labour market thats good Ive said that no program has ever been un-wound since 2008 and I posted many reasons with charts why I don't think the conditions will be right this year ,thats an objective opinion on the facts ,rather than your loose quote of Powell .

Ignored

You are making things personal again. My loose quote of Powell Eh?

Good luck with your charts. I am sticking to the numbers since this is all about unemployment and inflation. And of course i will be listening to what the FED says, since i can't win a war against them.

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Oct 13, 2021 12:19pm — Edited

Quoting Nordling00

Disliked

{quote} You are making things personal again. My loose quote of Powell Eh? Good luck with your charts. I am sticking to the numbers since this is all about unemployment and inflation. And of course i will be listening to what the FED says, since i can't win a war against them.

Ignored

It's not personal
I don't trust the FED and its associates like you because I've been around a lot longer ,its not political ,
the only thing is,
I think they know when you introduce 40% of all $ in circulation within a year, inflation won't be transitory ,
they know what their doing and it's left to the uneducated/gullible to believe their words

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Oct 13, 2021 12:38pm

Quoting Bones

Disliked

{quote} It's not personal I don't trust the FED and its associates like you because I've been around a lot longer ,its not political , the only thing is I think they know when you introduce 40% of all $ in circulation within a year inflation won't be transitory ,they know what their doing and it's left to the uneducated/gullible to believe their words They know what their doing ,it will be the pandemics fault , {image}

Ignored

You can deny it, but the words you select ("uneducated" for example) clearly shows that you take this conversation personal. But i will keep my calm manner.

Back to the topic, yeah they actually know what they are doing. They aimed for employment first, and it goes well. Now they will aim for the inflation, first step is tapering and second one will be hiking the rates but we still have time for te second step. They are reaching their goals one by one. First they wanted an expansion cycle and now we are close to the peak, then we will go through the contraction cycle. Business cycles you know, i have enough education to understand what they mean.

And for those newspapers; These speeches that the FED and Yellen gave is for keeping the people calm. They keep telling those things to keep the people in control. That sounds cruel but that's for the greater good.

2

Oct 13, 2021 8:51am

Quoting Nordling00

Disliked

{quote} Retail almost always get the news wrong. Use it as a confirmation Agreed, tapering will happen in November. FED will be hawkish today.

Ignored

Which is why most retailers are best off sitting back and relax when news are released. Let the market do what the market does and get to it when the direction is more clear. But most retailers cannot do that because they want to catch that BIG move. Unfortunately 90% of the times its the broker catching the retailer (:

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Oct 13, 2021 7:52am

No tapering today or ever...QE infinity. Selling USD...

2

Oct 13, 2021 9:53am — Edited

Quoting Bones

Disliked

{quote} theres no objectivity in quoting FED speak ,

Ignored

No offense but that's exactly what i mean when i said "They mix their feelings, outlook, political stance with news and situations like this"

FED is clear enough. They said their biggest concern is unemployment not inflation, now that unemployment rate is 4.8 (which is considered a natural unemployment rate, between 4-5%) there's nothing holding them back from tapering.

Interest rate thing is another topic, but it would happen around 4% unemployment rate.

But to cut it short, FED was clear enough. You may not like them, i don't have any sympathy for any cb chairman or any government, politician either. There's nothing personal. So my advice would be keeping it that way. No matter what your view is, there's ideas and there's facts. Circumstances may not be ideal, but we must make money in any given situation. We are traders, not activists or politicians.

2

Oct 13, 2021 9:07am

Quoting Nordling00

Disliked

{quote} Unfortunatel yes, you are right. It is possible for retailers to make money off of these news though. The problem is they are too biased that they can't interpret the situation objectively. They mix their feelings, outlook, political stance with news and situations like this. That's why they lose. Also they need a better understanding in economics too.

Ignored

theres no objectivity in quoting FED speak ,

1

Oct 13, 2021 2:27pm

Quoting Bones

Disliked

{quote} no there for the market ,those are clipping are from Bloomberg etc

Ignored

Still, it's not a big concern. Of course inflation will get hotter, unemployment will fall in an expansion cycle, that's normal. Now we are close to the peak. The next cycle will be contraction. Nothing to worry about.

1

Oct 14, 2021 2:08am — Edited

Quoting RideTheWave

Disliked

{quote} Until the supply bottlenecks are sorted out, or are at least much much less severe. Its going to be hard to see where inflation actually is. Not saying you, but many people keep echoing the quote (with the on/off capital) "iTs TrAnSiToRy". Jokes on them until the supply issues are resolved. Used cars wouldn't be up this high if their were new ones available. I work in a Rubber factory and we've been having a lot of issues and are changing lots of stock because what we want is unavailable. For OE contracts we have no choice but...

Ignored

it's ok I never thought you were ,honestly bottlenecks are the least of the problems ,
how they stop easy money is no 1

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Oct 13, 2021 11:23pm

Quoting Bones

Disliked

yea ok November is your prediction meanwhile the Fed need to walk back November to December + the whole inflation is temporary narrative so many believed from the start of the year (oil $80 a barrel right now) oh of course they're worried about labour shortages ,drop that one in now ,all priced in ....

Ignored

Until the supply bottlenecks are sorted out, or are at least much much less severe. Its going to be hard to see where inflation actually is. Not saying you, but many people keep echoing the quote (with the on/off capital) "iTs TrAnSiToRy". Jokes on them until the supply issues are resolved. Used cars wouldn't be up this high if their were new ones available. I work in a Rubber factory and we've been having a lot of issues and are changing lots of stock because what we want is unavailable. For OE contracts we have no choice but to pay up for more expensive material that is available. Like we have a factory, its needs to build, we have contracts for sales. And I'm sure the premium materials we are substituting for a less premium product are going to hit the other guys who NEED that same stock. Its a cluster storm. It has nothing to do with us being flush with cash from the FED. At all.

Show me the Shipping ports (and any other bottlenecks) unclogged or at least at very near pre-covid level. Then ill be watching a couple months for what inflation. We will absolutely see inflation drop. Supply will soar on that end. Imagine all the new Trucks/Cars that will flood the market. Some industries like mine literally just need the boring materials. Im sure silicon chips is a whole different can of worms.

This is where the Fed is in a tough spot. honestly. You can't gauge inflation at all. In the normal environment.

Wasn't attacking you if I came across that way. Just wanted to say some things.

1

Oct 13, 2021 9:07am

Quoting Nordling00

Disliked

{quote} Unfortunatel yes, you are right. It is possible for retailers to make money off of these news though. The problem is they are too biased that they can't interpret the situation objectively. They mix their feelings, outlook, political stance with news and situations like this. That's why they lose. Also they need a better understanding in economics too.

Ignored

I think you are probably right on that. I am not an economist so I look at it from a liquidity point of view. Where was all the retailer-liquidity on the release? Yes...

That doesnt mean that the retailers were wrong but unfortunately most of them will be stopped before it moves in their direction.

1

Oct 13, 2021 7:32am

OMG .... tapering today

1

Oct 13, 2021 7:53am

Quoting OnlineAddict

Disliked

No tapering today or ever...QE infinity. Selling USD...

Ignored

I agree...

1

Oct 13, 2021 8:42am

Tapering will happen in November. FED will be hawkish today.

1

Oct 13, 2021 12:26pm

time to tapering in 30 minutes ...... to much rumor here

1

Oct 13, 2021 8:18am

Quoting Banditten

Disliked

Tapering maybe. Rate hike? maybe one to show off. But unlikely we will see more hikes. Then rather high iflation. After all the inflation is transitory.

Ignored

so the process is stop QE then raise FED interest rate
QE process holds rates down
as soon as they start taper interest rates will jump on their own

Oct 13, 2021 8:26am

Quoting Banditten

Disliked

{quote} Interest is already jumping.

Ignored

yea, I do think they have a problem with the taper idea when the programs that big
any taper could rock the forward thinking market ,even a little $20 billion

but I highly doubt taper near term and the labour market is the perfect excuse
as long as they can claim transitory ,thats the FED gamble

Oct 13, 2021 8:57am — Edited

Quoting Banditten

Disliked

{quote} Which is why most retailers are best off sitting back and relax when news are released. Let the market do what the market does and get to it when the direction is more clear. But most retailers cannot do that because they want to catch that BIG move. Unfortunately 90% of the times its the broker catching the retailer (:

Ignored

Unfortunately yes, you are right. It is possible for retailers to make money off of these news though. The problem is they are too biased that they can't interpret the situation objectively. They mix their feelings, outlook, political stance with news and situations like this. That's why they lose. Also they need a better understanding in economics too.

Oct 13, 2021 11:47am

Quoting Nordling00

Disliked

{quote} No offense but that's exactly what i mean when i said "They mix their feelings, outlook, political stance with news and situations like this" FED is clear enough. They said their biggest concern is unemployment not inflation, now that unemployment rate is 4.8 (which is considered a natural unemployment rate, between 4-5%) there's nothing holding them back from tapering. Interest rate thing is another topic, but it would happen around 4% unemployment rate. But to cut it short, FED was clear enough. You may not like them, i don't...

Ignored

I haven't said anything political at all ,so in your mind lower participation rate and higher employment in a hugely stimulated environment is what they want ,so if even more people leave the labour market thats good

Ive said that no program has ever been un-wound since 2008 and I posted many reasons with charts why I don't think the conditions will be right this year ,thats an objective opinion on the facts ,rather than your loose quote of Powell .

Oct 13, 2021 1:04pm

Quoting Nordling00

Disliked

{quote} You can deny it, but the words you select ("uneducated" for example) clearly shows that you take this conversation personal..

Ignored

it's not an insult ,the system is overly complex and you have to spend time on it ,it's no longer a system where you pay money into a bank and they lend it out ,but many people still think it

Oct 13, 2021 1:16pm

Quoting Bones

Disliked

{quote} it's not an insult ,the system is overly complex and you have to spend time on it ,it's no longer a system where you pay money into a bank and they lend it out ,but many people still think it

Ignored

Alright, and i am not one of them.

Like i expected, in this FOMC minutes FED said that they are probably going to start tapering in November or December.

But, what i missed is this is probably already priced in last week. That's why market is not moving right now. I missed that part.

Oct 13, 2021 1:41pm

yea ok November is your prediction
meanwhile the Fed need to walk back November to December + the whole inflation is temporary narrative so many believed from the start of the year (oil $80 a barrel right now)
oh of course they're worried about labour shortages ,drop that one in now ,all priced in ....

Oct 13, 2021 2:21pm

Quoting Nordling00

Disliked

{quote} And for those newspapers; These speeches that the FED and Yellen gave is for keeping the people calm. They keep telling those things to keep the people in control. That sounds cruel but that's for the greater good....

Ignored

no there for the market ,those are clipping are from Bloomberg etc

Oct 13, 2021 8:22am

Quoting Bones

Disliked

{quote} so the process is stop QE then raise FED interest rate QE process holds rates down as soon as they start taper interest rates will jump on their own

Ignored

Interest is already jumping.

Oct 13, 2021 8:31am

Quoting OnlineAddict

Disliked

No tapering today or ever...QE infinity. Selling USD...

Ignored

Hope you close it

1

Oct 13, 2021 10:57am

Don't miss any chance to sell eurusd and buy usd jpy not only against but aiainst all currencies eur and jpy index are the worst this year and the next year

1

Oct 13, 2021 7:40am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsXGzblg7Ws

Oct 13, 2021 8:41am

Quoting BahogBilat

Disliked

{quote} Hope you close it

Ignored

No.

Oct 13, 2021 8:48am

ok jobs are not going to be the excuse later

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Oct 13, 2021 2:19pm — Edited

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Oct 13, 2021 3:20pm

Quoting EXZgame

Disliked

Will the unemployment get better on Nov?

Ignored

I am no fortune teller but probably yes. I may be wrong.

Oct 13, 2021 8:12am

Tapering maybe. Rate hike? maybe one to show off. But unlikely we will see more hikes. Then rather high iflation. After all the inflation is transitory.

Oct 13, 2021 11:30am

not tapering.

Oct 13, 2021 7:33am

yes, prepare for tapering news,...maybe

Oct 13, 2021 7:36am

Powell is not going anywhere!!!

Oct 13, 2021 7:43am

with data like this, plus unemploy rate, big chance for tapering...just my opinion

Oct 13, 2021 9:57am

Quoting OnlineAddict

Disliked

No tapering today or ever...QE infinity. Selling USD...

Ignored

Sorry about your GOLD call...

1

Oct 13, 2021 7:41am

Wkwkwk...
Culup ba....aaaaaaaa.....
Super SELL GOLD NOW....

Oct 13, 2021 7:46am

Thanks.

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Oct 13, 2021 7:47am

After 2 minutes. I'm waiting a tweet for Big LOT.

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Oct 13, 2021 8:09am

I would assum, they will not taper. Data is fairly safe for no taparing process. Also, reaction on dollar is quite tricky - I would sell all dollar pairs.

Oct 13, 2021 2:59pm

Will the unemployment get better on Nov?

Trader#A721

Oct 13, 2021 8:34am

Quoting Prof.Trader

Disliked

Wkwkwk... Culup ba....aaaaaaaa..... Super SELL GOLD NOW....

Ignored

U Ok bro?

Trader#C60A

Oct 13, 2021 10:04am

Quoting ar007

Disliked

{quote} Sorry about your GOLD call...

Ignored

Gold is "buy the dip" for me for weeks now...and will be for a while. I see nothing wrong with that.

Trader#11E8

Oct 13, 2021 10:17am

Quoting Prof.Trader

Disliked

Wkwkwk... Culup ba....aaaaaaaa..... Super SELL GOLD NOW....

Ignored

LOL

Story Stats

Oct 13, 2021 7:30am
Posted by
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Low Impact Breaking

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US Core CPI m/m

US CPI m/m