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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #38,061
  • Edited 2:07pm Oct 16, 2016 1:55pm | Edited 2:07pm
Hate to admit it but since I didn't get the weekly close I wanted... time is running out for a dip down to 17.25. Which it needs for further movement down. Sitting at resistance for too long is usually not a good sign. The chance of it moving to 18.00 before 16.68 has increased slightly.....My only "opinion" is the silver/gold market is due for a "wtf" moment. Too much weight. Still favors bearish overall, same focal point but chances of a temporary small "wtf" move up have increased slightly. I'd say Sunday is the last day it has to break below, but it will come back down at 18.00-18.10 either way. All speculation, we will see.
  • #38,062
  • Oct 16, 2016 4:07pm Oct 16, 2016 4:07pm
What does Fed Res Janet Yellen's "high pressure economy" do for gold?
I love forex. One day it will love me back.
  • #38,063
  • Oct 16, 2016 5:16pm Oct 16, 2016 5:16pm
Quoting Singha83
What does Fed Res Janet Yellen's "high pressure economy" do for gold?
Wouldn't it be nice if they were less convoluted for once? The only pressure I am seeing is the hot air coming out of her mouth.
  • #38,064
  • Edited 6:35pm Oct 16, 2016 5:49pm | Edited 6:35pm
A move up to 18.10 would do well for the long-term bullish scenario. Bouncing somewhere under 17. If it drops like a rock the potential for seeing 19-20 this year is less likely IMO and a long term bearish scenario may be in place. Reaching a new bottom in silver? A definite "wtf" moment. Trump elected would've done quite well for precious metals. It's such a shame.
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  • #38,065
  • Oct 16, 2016 6:02pm Oct 16, 2016 6:02pm
Quoting Singha83
What does Fed Res Janet Yellen's "high pressure economy" do for gold?

This is my logic here but I can be wrong. The fed is seeking inflation and actually wants inflation to exceed its target. Somehow, this will cause growth and more employment.

So what I think will happen is that inflation will begin to increase but it won't change anything for the gdp nor labor market leading towards stagflation in which gold will appreciate in value.

Any thoughts?
I love forex. One day it will love me back.
  • #38,066
  • Oct 16, 2016 6:10pm Oct 16, 2016 6:10pm
Quoting Singha83
{quote} This is my logic here but I can be wrong. The fed is seeking inflation and actually wants inflation to exceed its target. Somehow, this will cause growth and more employment. So what I think will happen is that inflation will begin to increase but it won't change anything for the gdp nor labor market leading towards stagflation in which gold will appreciate in value. Any thoughts?
I will say it matter very little. The correlation between USDindex and gold is not very strong. It is actually around 61% in average over the last 4 years and also over the last year. It was stronger before. It is stronger short term around fomc, non farm etc. But some period after strong news for USD the correlation weaken.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #38,067
  • Oct 16, 2016 6:39pm Oct 16, 2016 6:39pm
Agree.
  • #38,068
  • Oct 16, 2016 7:52pm Oct 16, 2016 7:52pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} I will say it matter very little. The correlation between USDindex and gold is not very strong. It is actually around 61% in average over the last 4 years and also over the last year. It was stronger before. It is stronger short term around fomc, non farm etc. But some period after strong news for USD the correlation weaken.
Do you mean negative correlation and the value of correlation coefficient -0.61?
  • #38,069
  • Oct 17, 2016 12:31am Oct 17, 2016 12:31am
Quoting yg10
{quote} Do you mean negative correlation and the value of correlation coefficient -0.61?
Yes , that is correct
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #38,070
  • Edited 2:26am Oct 17, 2016 1:28am | Edited 2:26am
Quoting conclude7
Hate to admit it but since I didn't get the weekly close I wanted... time is running out for a dip down to 17.25. Which it needs for further movement down. Sitting at resistance for too long is usually not a good sign. The chance of it moving to 18.00 before 16.68 has increased slightly.....My only "opinion" is the silver/gold market is due for a "wtf" moment. Too much weight. Still favors bearish overall, same focal point but chances of a temporary small "wtf" move up have increased slightly. I'd say Sunday is the last day it has to break below,...
Change of plans.
Last hour, setting up short. Tight SL at 17.51. buy stop above with tight SL aswell. I am going to bed.
  • #38,071
  • Oct 17, 2016 1:57am Oct 17, 2016 1:57am
Cable is bouncing. , it's a start. I've labelled all my sentiments in my profile.
  • #38,072
  • Oct 17, 2016 6:57am Oct 17, 2016 6:57am
GOLD H4

#?
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  • #38,073
  • Oct 17, 2016 8:40am Oct 17, 2016 8:40am
Gold is very undecided for the moment, sideways consolidation continues and I have decided to refrain from opening any positions.
  • #38,074
  • Oct 17, 2016 5:05pm Oct 17, 2016 5:05pm
looking to go long if we get above 1257.50 for a longer term trade.
  • #38,075
  • Oct 17, 2016 8:47pm Oct 17, 2016 8:47pm
Long till 18.00 in silver, then waiting for confirmation bearish cycle hasn't ceased.
  • #38,076
  • Oct 17, 2016 9:06pm Oct 17, 2016 9:06pm
Quoting conclude7
{quote} There are some technological advancements that may dwarf the prospects for silver and gold demand. They aren't reflected in the supply and demand numbers yet. Be careful with expectations of gold and silver going up longterm, I say 16.50-16.68 is bottom. The truth is some part of me feels uneasy about labeling a bottom at all after the last week. My gut is telling me something isn't right.
Gold and Silver is finally going up today. SP 500 and NASDAQ is going to drop further soon.
  • #38,077
  • Oct 17, 2016 9:07pm Oct 17, 2016 9:07pm
Quoting manosk
{quote} By definition, if the Fed hikes and they admit that there is some inflation and of course the hike wont be sufficient, gold and silver will rise. We are seasonally low now so we might see some weakness, but it is an opportunity to buy which will translate into huge gains for the patient investor.
True enough. I am waiting for a good shoot up as per early this year. The day seems to be starting now.
  • #38,078
  • Oct 17, 2016 10:12pm Oct 17, 2016 10:12pm
Quoting goldgirl
{quote} Gold and Silver is finally going up today. SP 500 and NASDAQ is going to drop further soon.
Yes it appears long term bullish bias is still intact.
  • #38,079
  • Oct 17, 2016 10:23pm Oct 17, 2016 10:23pm
Quoting goldgirl
{quote} True enough. I am waiting for a good shoot up as per early this year. The day seems to be starting now.
I want to believe but it just seems too predictable.
  • #38,080
  • Oct 18, 2016 12:37am Oct 18, 2016 12:37am
Closed Long with minor gain. Reopened short with SL at 18.20. Too much second guessing. On the daily a long position seems barely justified to me.
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