XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

I think it might even reach $1,325. Either way, I still have shorts open.

I see 1334 as just likely interim support.

1319-1316 next

And eventually, possibly much, much lower.

4 HR chart. Fib expansion: 61.8% @ 160; 50% @ 140; 38% @ 117.

Note: Current price is below EMA 52. However, EMA 20 not yet crosses EMA 52. They will cross at about 147.

Therefore: S/R at 117 / 147.

I think I'll stick with price over squiggly lines any trading day.

I don't care to post often anymore, but people have been asking for my advice so I thought I'd share this observation. Summer is not, historically, a good period for buying gold, but summer doesn't usually start off with a Brexit vote followed by two central bank easing packages. Today's U.S. non-farm prompted selling, but it did not change the global fundamental picture, so if I were still a day-trader, I'd take interest in gold having pulled back to Fibonacci and trend channel support with RSI also at support.

Entering a long trade here with a stop below support might be a good idea. A break above the descending trend lines in price and RSI would confirm the resumption of the current uptrend channel which started in June. I'd be wary of going short without a break below $1,300 and a retest of $1,300 from below with a confirming candle on a weekly chart.

Personally, I've been long gold this year since it broke above $1,100, added again when it broke above $1,200 and $1,300, and I will probably add again on a confirmed break above $1,400. Having posted this, I may take this trade opportunity myself. For long-term investors, any pull-backs will remain buying opportunities unless gold falls below $1,200 USD.

Gold - August 5th daily chart





In Canadian dollars (I'm Canadian), gold is testing the 2012 high from above as support. A break below could drop gold to the prior 2015 high of $1,640 or possibly even prior support at $1,570 CAD. All monthly momentum indicators are positive but it is at RSI pivot resistance for the second time this year. A break above the monthly RSI pivot could see gold breaking into the upper half of the current bull channel. Gold is similarly poised for a significant break either up or down in all other non-USD currencies used to calculate the US Dollar Index so day-traders should remain extra cautious.

Gold in CAD - August 5th monthly chart

Hi. What do you think of UC and GBPCAD?

Bearing in mind I mostly deal in long-term trades, so if you day trade or scalp, or if a trade taking a 2,000 pip ride in the wrong direction would seriously mess you up, I'm not sure how useful my opinion will be. That said, if you don't mind me giving my two cents without currently looking at charts, so I can't offer any ideas about good entry points, I'd say, in general terms, the global downturn is still weakening oil which is weakening the Loonie, so unless North Korean lands a missile somewhere that counts, or some similar threat of war pushes oil back up, the Loonie should continue to weaken. That bad data today only makes it worse so, for the time being, the Loonie will likely fail against USD.

On the other side of that equation, however, one good data print from the U.S. does not erase the downturn in the U.S. economy or the increasing unlikelihood of a USD rate increase. I'd wait for the US Dollar Index to make a decisive break up or down, but it's currently still within a descending channel with more risk to the downside than up, and I certainly wouldn't want to be holding USD when Trump wins the election so USD/CAD is not my preferred pair at the moment.

I also think it's a mistake going long Pound against anything unless it can get above the current consolidation area on the daily GPB/USD chart, and given the unexpectedly large easing the BoE announced in addition to a rate cut yesterday, I don't think that's likely, not to mention the Brexit has yet to be dealt with.

The Euro is in the same boat as the Pound until the Brexit is dealt with and put to rest for once and all, and that will be months or perhaps even years. Plus there's the ongoing issues that have been plaguing the Euro before the fool idea to put a vote to leaving the Eurozone ever became a thing. Weak against weak are not going to be where you'll find your most profitable trades, so I'd avoid GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD.

Market uncertainty nearly always favours the Yen, and the BoJ said (via a Deputy Governor) in May they won't risk sanctions by officially intervening until the Yen hits between 90 and 95 USD. With every pundit saying "they'll intervene, they'll intervene, the Yen must fall" I sometimes feel like I'm the only person that pays attention to charts showing every indirect effort they've made to stem Yen strength has, so far, failed to weaken the Yen, and more often than not strengthened it because it leaves them with fewer and fewer options. I think the Yen moves either sideways or strengthens against most pairs, making it a safer bet to play against weakness.

Daily RSI for AUD/USD is nuzzled up against a descending trend line so it's make or break time for the Aussie. The Kiwi has been a little too schizophrenic lately, so I'm avoiding it for the time being; however, it still has the best carry trade (excluding exotics) in a world of declining central bank rates. If they don't cut rates next week as expected that could be the decisive move to the upside it's been waiting for. Even if they do cut rates, the market is already expecting it so it may not cause a Kiwi decline.

I think long AUD/CAD (which I'm already in), if it can confirm the breakout to the topside would be worth entering (or in my case, holding onto), or shorting the continued JPY/CAD bearishness are better choices. Short GBP/AUD or GBP/JPY (which I'm still in since before the Brexit vote) are potentially even better choices.

Platinum, silver, and gold (in that order at the moment) is where I'm focusing my buy-and-hold money though. The bull triple metals mining ETF has made me extremely happy this year as well, though I hold that in a retirement portfolio, not my trading account.

Thanks very much. Thumbs up.

Bullish on the long term.

Thanks for sharing your insights!

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Enjoyed reading this. Nice

I didn't see this till it was first quoted twice by others.

Headscratcher.

I am still long. Gold hit support at 1335. Add entry. Await for Elliot Wave 5 to materialize and do a short for a mid term 1 week scalp.

i will be long silver as long the trend will be up

Im also buying gold at 1336, but Im watching the 1340/50 area for reversal in case gold decides to continue downwards from the weekly trendline and since there has been good news for dollar.

Let's see. My S/R is still 1317/ 1347. These 2 numbers are set to be tested next week. It will test support point of 1320 and Resistant 145. Depends on Price Action.

I agree it's bullish. as long as 1310 is not broken. If 1310 is broken it can go back to 1270/1280. Further down to 1250.

Trade carefully. Watch out for bearish action.

Hit support @ 1335?

Spot only went as low as 1337, futures as low 1340

Hello Guys.....



Before NFP>>>

I did not catch all the move from 1360 but went short gold after neckline break. Now i am waiting for some kind of retrace so i can short this again to 1300 area.
Check this....