Thanks for your view i have a long position at my broker.
- #4,422
- Nov 8, 2015 5:37am Nov 8, 2015 5:37am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
Following the last update, Bitcoin price found support at its 4hr 200MA and slowly accelerated into a parabolic advance that topped near $600 during the first week of November.
Comparing the different exchanges, it is clear that the China-based BTC/CNY exchange charts had led the rally.
My own assessment, based on the 4hr chart MAs and the 1hr chart below, is that the rally may continue if price can hold above the 2600 CNY level. This is the level of the 1-week chart's 100MA that is a support & resistance level the chart is encountering for the first time this year.
If the 1hr chart's 200MA (red, below) can hold support, then the current exuberant market may climb the short distance to above the Fib fan lines directly overhead which will simultaneously put price above strong long-term support and the 1-week 100MA's 2555 CNY level.
If price falls away from these critical supports, then the support floor gravity near $220 may kick in for a 5th time this year.
Bitcoin miners are forming a consortiums - to be expected as the bitcoin fee market matures.
As can be seen in the chart below, the conventional momentum indicators just go full-tilt during a bitcoin rally - the unusual Bitcoin chart PA is seeing interesting analysis techniques develop.
The support floor in this chart is well-established and visible in most exchange daily charts. Should the rally resume, the next wave target comes in at 4800 CNY and $700 based on Fib extension targets.
BTC-China 1-hour chart
Comparing the different exchanges, it is clear that the China-based BTC/CNY exchange charts had led the rally.
My own assessment, based on the 4hr chart MAs and the 1hr chart below, is that the rally may continue if price can hold above the 2600 CNY level. This is the level of the 1-week chart's 100MA that is a support & resistance level the chart is encountering for the first time this year.
If the 1hr chart's 200MA (red, below) can hold support, then the current exuberant market may climb the short distance to above the Fib fan lines directly overhead which will simultaneously put price above strong long-term support and the 1-week 100MA's 2555 CNY level.
If price falls away from these critical supports, then the support floor gravity near $220 may kick in for a 5th time this year.
Bitcoin miners are forming a consortiums - to be expected as the bitcoin fee market matures.
As can be seen in the chart below, the conventional momentum indicators just go full-tilt during a bitcoin rally - the unusual Bitcoin chart PA is seeing interesting analysis techniques develop.
The support floor in this chart is well-established and visible in most exchange daily charts. Should the rally resume, the next wave target comes in at 4800 CNY and $700 based on Fib extension targets.
BTC-China 1-hour chart
cryptocurrency everytime
- #4,423
- Nov 8, 2015 6:39am Nov 8, 2015 6:39am
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: CME seat owner | 6,134 Posts
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
- #4,424
- Nov 8, 2015 6:51am Nov 8, 2015 6:51am
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: CME seat owner | 6,134 Posts
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
- #4,425
- Nov 10, 2015 2:24am Nov 10, 2015 2:24am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Swing trader using Market Cycles | 2,152 Posts
Bitcoin give some signs of resuming his advance :
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
- #4,427
- Nov 12, 2015 5:45am Nov 12, 2015 5:45am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Swing trader using Market Cycles | 2,152 Posts
How I view the traders feeling about Bitcoin :
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
- #4,428
- Nov 16, 2015 1:44am Nov 16, 2015 1:44am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Swing trader using Market Cycles | 2,152 Posts
How I view the traders feeling about Bitcoin : {image} {image}
"Optimism" .
It seem buyers are finished taking a portion of their profits. Other traders were caught and stopped out when they moved their stop loss at the breakeven. I think the Optimism phase is about to begin . Looking at the chart, I am expecting to have a explosive breakout. If I would trade bitcoin , this is the entry I would create :
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
- #4,429
- Nov 16, 2015 11:27pm Nov 16, 2015 11:27pm
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Swing trader using Market Cycles | 2,152 Posts
{quote} "Optimism" . It seem buyers are finished taking a portion of their profits. Other traders were caught and stopped out when they moved their stop loss at the breakeven. I think the Optimism phase is about to begin . Looking at the chart, I am expecting to have a explosive breakout. If I would trade bitcoin , this is the entry I would create : {image} {image}
Aggresive buy (for those who are looking for an early entry) can be created here for a low risk high reward potential trade but it is more risky than setup above:
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
- #4,430
- Nov 18, 2015 1:24am Nov 18, 2015 1:24am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Swing trader using Market Cycles | 2,152 Posts
{quote} Aggresive buy (for those who are looking for an early entry) can be created here for a low risk high reward potential trade but it is more risky than setup above: {image}
The entry is based on the psychological pattern 123 :
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
- #4,431
- Nov 23, 2015 5:09am Nov 23, 2015 5:09am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Swing trader using Market Cycles | 2,152 Posts
{quote} "Optimism" . It seem buyers are finished taking a portion of their profits. Other traders were caught and stopped out when they moved their stop loss at the breakeven. I think the Optimism phase is about to begin . Looking at the chart, I am expecting to have a explosive breakout. If I would trade bitcoin , this is the entry I would create : {image} {image}
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
- #4,432
- Nov 25, 2015 2:50pm Nov 25, 2015 2:50pm
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Swing trader using Market Cycles | 2,152 Posts
{quote} Interesting triangle. Energy accumulated for explosive breakout. Because the trend is UP, I am looking only for long trades : {image}
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
- #4,433
- Nov 25, 2015 9:18pm Nov 25, 2015 9:18pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
Thanks for the running analysis, andoseg2 !
I didn't notice your previous posts until I logged in today to post the following:
Heading Up
OKCoin 3Mth Futures 4-Hour Chart
Bitcoin price pushed above the upper boundary of the consolidation triangle of the past 2 weeks. The chart above is 4hr, but since the move began price has consistently been hitting Fib extension targets in the smaller timeframes (not shown).
A path for advance is cleared by RSI which had reverse diverged to the first corrective wave since the top (green arrows). The next reverse divergence will only occur once RSI equals or exceeds the previous high (magenta arrow).
MACD (top) had compressed to its zero line and then broken above its upper Bollinger Band while price broke above resistance (the upper triangle TL) - typical advancing bitcoin price action.
The advancing wave now has clear air between Fib lines up to $375 which is also a Fib extension target. By that time RSI might have used up its available room prior to reverse diverging.
If this is a corrective advance $375 may be the upper target. If it is advance into the next high, then a self-evident intermediate target waits at the red Fib line (drawn from the August low) and 3.618 Fib extension target near $520. That would be a profitable end-of-year trade and good for the bitcoin chart setup into 2016!
It appears bitcoin is advancing in tandem with the US Dollar Index - not necessarily with strong correlation - but the coincidence of surging moves implies a positive future given the expectation of rates increases going forward and their implication for fiat and bitcoin.
I didn't notice your previous posts until I logged in today to post the following:
Heading Up
OKCoin 3Mth Futures 4-Hour Chart
Bitcoin price pushed above the upper boundary of the consolidation triangle of the past 2 weeks. The chart above is 4hr, but since the move began price has consistently been hitting Fib extension targets in the smaller timeframes (not shown).
A path for advance is cleared by RSI which had reverse diverged to the first corrective wave since the top (green arrows). The next reverse divergence will only occur once RSI equals or exceeds the previous high (magenta arrow).
MACD (top) had compressed to its zero line and then broken above its upper Bollinger Band while price broke above resistance (the upper triangle TL) - typical advancing bitcoin price action.
The advancing wave now has clear air between Fib lines up to $375 which is also a Fib extension target. By that time RSI might have used up its available room prior to reverse diverging.
If this is a corrective advance $375 may be the upper target. If it is advance into the next high, then a self-evident intermediate target waits at the red Fib line (drawn from the August low) and 3.618 Fib extension target near $520. That would be a profitable end-of-year trade and good for the bitcoin chart setup into 2016!
It appears bitcoin is advancing in tandem with the US Dollar Index - not necessarily with strong correlation - but the coincidence of surging moves implies a positive future given the expectation of rates increases going forward and their implication for fiat and bitcoin.
cryptocurrency everytime
- #4,434
- Edited 6:03am Nov 26, 2015 5:48am | Edited 6:03am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Swing trader using Market Cycles | 2,152 Posts
{quote} "Optimism" . It seem buyers are finished taking a portion of their profits. Other traders were caught and stopped out when they moved their stop loss at the breakeven. I think the Optimism phase is about to begin . Looking at the chart, I am expecting to have a explosive breakout. If I would trade bitcoin , this is the entry I would create : {image} {image}
Confirmation long entry consumed. Those must be the buyers in action and trend is expected to renew his advance :
How I view the traders feeling about Bitcoin : {image} {image}
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
- #4,435
- Nov 26, 2015 10:27am Nov 26, 2015 10:27am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Bitcoiner | 20,231 Posts
Thanks for the running analysis, andoseg2 ! I didn't notice your previous posts until I logged in today to post the following: Heading Up OKCoin 3Mth Futures 4-Hour Chart {image} Bitcoin price pushed above the upper boundary of the consolidation triangle of the past 2 weeks. The chart above is 4hr, but since the move began price has consistently been hitting Fib extension targets in the smaller timeframes (not shown). A path for advance is cleared by RSI which had reverse diverged to the first corrective wave since the top (green arrows). The next...
The Chonchy
- #4,436
- Nov 30, 2015 1:22am Nov 30, 2015 1:22am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Swing trader using Market Cycles | 2,152 Posts
{quote} Trade triggered : {image}
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
- #4,437
- Nov 30, 2015 3:38am Nov 30, 2015 3:38am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Bitcoiner | 20,231 Posts
{quote} Ok , trend renew as expected, time to manage the risk. Read the screenshot : {image}
The Chonchy
- #4,438
- Nov 30, 2015 5:05am Nov 30, 2015 5:05am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Swing trader using Market Cycles | 2,152 Posts
Thank you 
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
- #4,439
- Dec 3, 2015 4:11am Dec 3, 2015 4:11am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Swing trader using Market Cycles | 2,152 Posts
Interesting channel in developement. Good area for long from here .
This is the scenario I would looking for if I would trade Bitcoin:
This is the scenario I would looking for if I would trade Bitcoin:
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
- #4,440
- Dec 4, 2015 1:56am Dec 4, 2015 1:56am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Swing trader using Market Cycles | 2,152 Posts
New informations arrive , update for a long entry :
Money moves the market, not an indicator.