Why it is possible to predict price movement?

spot on.

I'm not a statistician nor advanced mathematician by any stretch. I do observe the masses and tend to run the other direction. I don't hold an economics degree, but, I don't believe the markets motion is completely random, nor is it absolutely 100% predictable, but I do believe you can get a lot closer to some very reasonable predictions than most think you can (as evidenced by the content of this thread and many others where the topic is brought up). But lets look at what we are really trying to predict regardless of methodology: where might price go up from and where might price go down from and the only way we could begin to do that is properly defining range. As you see in the image, a reasonable bit of noise is generated. Weeding through it isn't the easiest thing but when we pair fundamentals and recognize the need for balancing the technical with the fundamental, the possibilities are pretty clear that some level of predictability does exist.

two day trading....

That's good, but statistically 2 days is nothing, show me 2 years at least. Even me that literally suck at trading can have my very good month.

How silly those that suck at trading (your own words) that they would criticize someone that is training himself on a trading system and using micro positions during that training till proven consistent.

The funny thing is that 99% here suck just like me but they won't never tell you, can you believe it? If he is just training then don't brag a 2 day account like he thinks is George Soros already. 2 days is nothing, show 2 years and then we can discuss it.

Don't think he is bragging..... He is trying to show you that CJs information has validity. CJ is showing something that any trader could benefit from. CJ is showing a road map of market, price mechanics. surly you can see the benefit of that, and if nothing else you can apply this to you own trading style.

Let me ask you..... If you know some information was valid beyond a shadow of a doubt. Could you do the rest?

Regards

What happens to the thread?
Moderators should to stop this or even delete.

Yes but we have to understand that one small group of trading events validate nothing. If we want to discuss the market we have do to in a proper way, or it's just meaningless. One time I thought I cracked the market because of some very good months, then I realized it was only the variance, it happens all the time. Do you think that all those 1 week statement would come out if the curve was pointing down instead of up?
I would do my best, then who knows.

I do not reply on forums often but, today I think I will.
I think this thread is going wrong because we have no "definitions" as to what the purpose of the discussion may be so, I may try address this issue.

1.) Firstly - predicting price.

In my opinion, we all predict price.
When you go to your broker and state that you believe that, at some future date/time price on an underlying asset will be trading higher (buy) or lower (sell) you have made a prediction - AND, you are convinced enough of the prediction to put your money where your mouth is.
This do NOT depend on how you arrived at your prediction. Regardless if you use a set of indicators, trade naked charts, fundamentals or whatever - you still have to predict future price action.
Since predictions are difficult to make, it may be a good idea not to bash anyone with the courage to actually come out and show their predictions - and, how they arrived at such a prediction. (Rather try learn something - most everybody has some truth in their ideas, I think.)

In conclusion, remember the following:

“Economic forecasting only exist to make astrology look respectable, even with a robust DSGE (and other types) of models that Macro Economists have developed. Unpredictable shocks and unaccounted for frictions can put a large gap between predictions and reality.”
John Kenneth Galbraith, economist.

2.) A High degree of accuracy in our predictions:

At any given moment, price can only do 1 of 3 things namely, stay where it is (range), go higher (trend up) or go lower (trend down)
This would indicate that we as traders have a 33% hope of being correct in any given prediction - this, I have tested through numerous developments and are the truth so, to those with a lower hitrate my advice would be to stop overtrading. (You are opening and closing trades way quicker than the underlying market is moving.)

Trend traders try to ignore the range. They either stay in the trade and ride out the range (long term investors) OR they close and take their capital somewhere else where we have a good trend.
In other words - they have a 50% hope of being correct because, price can only go up or down.
To those who call themselves trend traders and with a much lower hitrate (than around 50%) my advice would be to learn find the "correct" (trending) markets and stay away from ranging markets.

Range traders try to ride the short term waves AND, be out the market before the next big trend. To them my advice would be to learn how to see an upcoming trend, WHEN the trend will start (and why) and understand why the trend will end.

As such, my first question would be - what sort of trader do you see yourself as?
Answer can be:
1.) Short term trend trader. Typically day trader - in and out almost daily.
2.) Long term investor. In our (Forex) market perhaps 3-30 days in a trend.
3.) Range trader - multiple trades per day. This is the hardest type of trading because you make the broker rich first and then take whatever is left over for yourself. (Brokers love these traders!!)

3.) Success
In order to break even, we only need to be correct in our predictions some 51.5% to 55% of the time (depending on the underlying chart you use - because, spread is a constant and the broker will always be paid first.)
So really, you do not have to be extremely accurate in your predictions.

As such, I am of the conviction that trading is not rocket science and that most anyone can succeed - IF prepared to make the effort and invest the time.

4.) Opening your account on this (or any other) forum
To those who say "show me 2 years of trading" etc. I say...
If you hired me yesterday and paid me today I would feel a bit of a responsibility but, since you did not I do not feel as if I owe you anything.
This is just a bit of goodwill on my part to try and help those prepared to put in the hard work - successful traders are NOT here to try uplift those not prepared to help themselves. (we leave that to the numerous wellfare organizations around the world - whom we do support with our hard earned income.)
Trading is my business, my passion and my livelyhood - have been for many years and I only have to show my success to my wife (and the taxman.)

Good luck and enjoy your trading - more importantly, enjoy your profits!!

Agree 100%! Predictability exists for sure!

C J ...? I seen him start crawl out from the mine to rose the back of the camel and back on feet to the right side of the street ....

Do any body witness his fights with himself tomany times agains and agains till these days of what he is .... now ...

These is a stabborn man refuse to accept a word quit or surrender or the f.... with it ....

Yes ... theres somany traders ... out there ( in these world ) ... out here ... who learn the proper way of trading ... yet he learn it with his own hard hand .....

What ever a man archives ishis lagecy to hold ... to show ... and own ....

If he share it with the forum or fillin the gaps in between the nu bee and the season ... it is his kindness to sharing his cup of tea ....

Too many galaxys of wonderful lives ... here or there after .... why less it ...


ps ... favorite brook ... alice in porn land ......

jus woot r men doing for ex .... /

he re ......

price predictablility? I believe in it.
Isn't that what has to be done in order to be profitable? The less you're able to predict price means
the less chance you have to be profitable. The more you can do it, the more profitable you will be.
Some use market information.
Some use technicals.
Most rely on probabilities. When you rely on probabilities, its more about the law of averages.
Supply and demand is a highly used method.

My position is if you can find consistent and reliable behaviors of course you can predict price.
Why? cause if you see price behaviors that are consistent and reliable-- they do the same thing over and over and thus
you can predict the outcome with a high degree of consistency.
I break trading down into order flow-- seeing what buyers and sellers do in real time.

Is it possible? Absolutely. But it isn't easy.
I'll give you a clue. Break price down to fluid vs holding price. Fluid price tells you one side can't hold a specific area. Holding price tells you that
one side is trying to hold the other side.

The type of trend offers a lot of information about buyers and sellers.

The hardest price is knowing when price goes from fluid to holding price or holding price to fluid price.

It is possible, because market is driven by emotions. Lets say you buy EU at 1.3000.
If price goes above it, you become emotionally attached to 1.3000.
If price goes below it, you become emotionally attached to 1.3000.

History doesnt repeat itself, but behaviors do.

:nerd:

nerd