Why it is possible to predict price movement? | Page 35 | Crypto Craft

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Why it is possible to predict price movement?

  • #681
  • Nov 2, 2015 11:59am Nov 2, 2015 11:59am
Quoting Captain Jack
This post from long ago tries to explain how they show you something but don't or try to hide something by presenting it in different ways. What they can't hide are the underlying truths... it's up to us to spot the deception... it's all about selling the lie to those who readily accept it... -CJ- {image}
Great discussions going on here, I am fascinated by CJ's ability to "predict" a path that a pair will follow into the future.

My own take on this, is that where price looks the most "random", professionals are looting the accounts of the uninitiated. These are specific
patterns that I observe and find that when price returns here, the move away is fast to the next "random" zone.

It is not supply & demand zones, I have tried them and they did not work for me, for the same reasons previously mentioned.

If price appears random, it is definitely there for a reason.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #682
  • Nov 2, 2015 1:29pm Nov 2, 2015 1:29pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Thanks, I am short from "peak 2" (10727 now at BE, TP below "peak Low") (:
Hey mate, how's that DAX short working out for you?
-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #683
  • Nov 2, 2015 1:37pm Nov 2, 2015 1:37pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Charts are charts I guess and they all speak the same language.... Taking a quick look, DAX made a Peak High, followed by the standard 3 level drop with a stop hunt between level 2 and 3. At this point, the Peak Low was established, level 1 rise completed and we are forming level 2 rise now... based on past history, I would "expect" to see a retrace at level 2, followed by a rise in to and extended stop hunt before level 3 rise and new Peak High is achieved. That would be my expectation. -CJ- {image}

You were right on DAX CJ... it had created new high now... you are really great...
  • #684
  • Nov 2, 2015 1:45pm Nov 2, 2015 1:45pm
Quoting tradeforlife
{quote} You were right on DAX CJ... it had created new high now... you are really great...
I figured your trade was ok... Mingary posted a short trade and I was checking to see the status of it... I always like to see posted trades updated, otherwise, why even post them in the first place...

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #685
  • Nov 2, 2015 2:59pm Nov 2, 2015 2:59pm
Quoting dagoods
{quote} nope. it doesn't make any sense to me. care to explain what that is?
All I'm doing is trying to Predict the next Possible pattern on the one hr chart ..Then I open my Buy/Sell orders accordingly ..
Sometimes , it could take 24(One hr) candles for the Pattern to be completed ...This might provide a better explanation.. It's my system I 'm forward testing at the moment ...Follow the red circles ...
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  • #686
  • Nov 2, 2015 4:17pm Nov 2, 2015 4:17pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} I figured your trade was ok... Mingary posted a short trade and I was checking to see the status of it... I always like to see posted trades updated, otherwise, why even post them in the first place... -CJ-
my daily target is only 10 pips CJ... I'm trying to create some discipline, patience and rules for myself as I've a lost a lot due to over trading.... but i'm keen to learn from you so that i can improve my confidence while placing trades... keep sharing and there are many like me here who are getting benefited...
  • #687
  • Nov 2, 2015 7:25pm Nov 2, 2015 7:25pm
I posted about the PA on AJ for a few days now.... shorts were slaughtered... and now the longs are going to be set up and trapped.... watch em work!

-CJ-
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #688
  • Nov 2, 2015 8:11pm Nov 2, 2015 8:11pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} I beg to differ with as to the value of Elliot Waves.... I see this as the cycle of the market and it does work rather well. I see many traders making a killing each and every day following these simple patterns. Those who have trouble understanding this pattern are usually the ones who over complicate a very simple pattern. It's as easy as 1-2-3 or as complicated as a human can make it... and we can really FUBAR the shit out of simple things.... -CJ- {image}
Hello Captain Jack:

Many thanks for your insightful posts, especially on Barf. Very helpful.

Is this chart an example of Barf and the pattern of high and low levels it might have ?

Also what does "SH" mean on your chart ?

Borg
May the Forex be with you.
  • #689
  • Nov 2, 2015 8:23pm Nov 2, 2015 8:23pm
Quoting Borg
{quote} Hello Captain Jack: Many thanks for your insightful posts, especially on Barf. Very helpful. Is this chart an example of Barf and the pattern of high and low levels it might have ? Also what does "SH" mean on your chart ? Borg
You are welcome... as for a BARF, it may end up that way on a lower time frame, but this is how the work traders.... Almost all last week, after dropping price quickly, they kept selling the lie of price moving lower... they end up stopping out a lot of shorts while accumulating orders.... now they walk price up, and possibly spike it high on the news later tonight... this is selling the lie of higher prices.... Once they pay themselves off with the price run up, they will stick the longs up high and tank price, dropping it for another large payoff for themselves.... the drop comes after the price/volume exhaustion phase....

They prey on human nature, the greed, indecision, fear, panic, and pain.... it is our habits as humans that allow them to do this but it is due to their habits that we can track them...

"SH" is a stop hunt...

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #690
  • Nov 2, 2015 8:56pm Nov 2, 2015 8:56pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} I beg to differ with as to the value of Elliot Waves.... I see this as the cycle of the market and it does work rather well. I see many traders making a killing each and every day following these simple patterns. Those who have trouble understanding this pattern are usually the ones who over complicate a very simple pattern. It's as easy as 1-2-3 or as complicated as a human can make it... and we can really FUBAR the shit out of simple things.... -CJ- {image}
Live and in play.... beginning of the new price cycle.... 3 levels of drop ahead...

-CJ-
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #691
  • Nov 2, 2015 9:02pm Nov 2, 2015 9:02pm
Quoting mirrfx
{quote} heres my view.i don't think GBPAUD going low.i is going to new high and more high
Stick a fork in this one, it's done! GBPAUD

-CJ-
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #692
  • Nov 2, 2015 9:03pm Nov 2, 2015 9:03pm
Quoting taomql4
{quote} All I'm doing is trying to Predict the next Possible pattern on the one hr chart ..Then I open my Buy/Sell orders accordingly .. Sometimes , it could take 24(One hr) candles for the Pattern to be completed ...This might provide a better explanation.. It's my system I 'm forward testing at the moment ...Follow the red circles ... {image} {image} {image}
You've done a marvelous job with that...I wish you continued success!

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #693
  • Nov 2, 2015 9:14pm Nov 2, 2015 9:14pm
It's not.
  • #694
  • Nov 2, 2015 9:55pm Nov 2, 2015 9:55pm
CJ, is my logic correct here, but on a D1 chart? The D1 TF would costs the MMs more money to move the price than a lower TF.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} You are welcome... as for a BARF, it may end up that way on a lower time frame, but this is how the work traders.... Almost all last week, after dropping price quickly, they kept selling the lie of price moving lower... they end up stopping out a lot of shorts while accumulating orders.... now they walk price up, and possibly spike it high on the news later tonight... this is selling the lie of higher prices.... Once they pay themselves off with the price run up, they will stick the longs up high and tank price, dropping it for another large...
  • #695
  • Nov 2, 2015 10:08pm Nov 2, 2015 10:08pm
Quoting j0hnth0m
It's not.
You make quite the convincing argument there, I see what you mean...

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #696
  • Nov 2, 2015 10:08pm Nov 2, 2015 10:08pm
Quoting forexdave1
CJ, is my logic correct here, but on a D1 chart? The D1 TF would costs the MMs more money to move the price than a lower TF. {image} {quote}
There's a bigger picture at work here.... you are too focused...

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #697
  • Nov 2, 2015 10:26pm Nov 2, 2015 10:26pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} You are welcome... as for a BARF, it may end up that way on a lower time frame, but this is how the work traders.... Almost all last week, after dropping price quickly, they kept selling the lie of price moving lower... they end up stopping out a lot of shorts while accumulating orders.... now they walk price up, and possibly spike it high on the news later tonight... this is selling the lie of higher prices.... Once they pay themselves off with the price run up, they will stick the longs up high and tank price, dropping it for another large...
Hello Captain Jack:

I see thanks. But on the chart for post 687. How do you know that this isn't the start of another move up. I thought that the “price/volume exhaustion phase” marks a low and the start of a major move up.
May the Forex be with you.
  • #698
  • Nov 2, 2015 10:43pm Nov 2, 2015 10:43pm
Quoting Borg
{quote} Hello Captain Jack: I see thanks. But on the chart for post 687. How do you know that this isn't the start of another move up. I thought that the price/volume exhaustion phase marks a low and the start of a major move up.
They've done just as I said, walked the price up and spiked it to entice longs in.... the exhaustion phase will happen when longs quit buying now.... they are going to be stuck at the top... and the MM will be running price away from them soon....

Big rises and big drops require a pause to consolidate and accumulate.... and to entice one or more times to the high side, UNLESS their order books are full!

-CJ-
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #699
  • Nov 2, 2015 10:47pm Nov 2, 2015 10:47pm
The V spike is the start of a new cycle and begins a period of greater volume. The bottom of the V enters into a congestion area collecting shorts which get killed when price reverses?


Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} There's a bigger picture at work here.... you are too focused... -CJ-
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  • #700
  • Nov 2, 2015 10:48pm Nov 2, 2015 10:48pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Stick a fork in this one, it's done! GBPAUD -CJ- {image} {image}
The rhythm of the market....

-CJ-
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
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