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Why it is possible to predict price movement?

  • #621
  • Oct 31, 2015 6:13am Oct 31, 2015 6:13am
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} LOL... to be a teacher, first he needs students... -CJ-
LOL ...

With such a sweet & friendly approach, I'm sure he'll find many.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #622
  • Oct 31, 2015 6:47am Oct 31, 2015 6:47am
Quoting Atokys
I wholeheartedly agree that price is not random and predictions can be made to grant an edge. Over the years I came to realize that the markets are inefficient. I have a friend who is an economist. He would try to explain to me, as if talking to a child, why what I was trying to do was futile, because "the markets are efficient." I have noticed that everyone who has ever told me that the markets are efficient is poor. He argued that if I could develop a winning system on a computer, so could others, and we would all cancel each other out. What he...
BINGO! People are creatures of habit... so are the people who cause price to move... both groups follow the same patterns, however the outcome of their trades vary by a great deal. Is it not a common belief that up to 95% or more, of Forex traders lose money? If the markets AND price were in fact random, then would the number of people who lose money in forex not be closer to 50/50, the statistical norm of a random coin toss with which has 2 outcomes??? Think about that.... those 95%+ losers fall prey to those who manipulate price, not the randomness of the market. Another false illusion that people have allowed to be created by others...

It's also nice to see somebody try to rationalize away opposing views but in so doing, they actually confirm those opposing views... as one " under the bridge dweller" recently stated:

"More transactions create price movement? Nope, volume of "buys" = volume of "sells". That's how the market works. The greatest trading volume occurs in congestion areas, not at extremes."

Even trolls are correct at times and they don't even know it.... THE GREATEST TRADING VOLUME OCCURS IN CONGESTION AREAS, NOT AT THE EXTREMES!!!

In other words, his areas of congestion are my areas of interest. Areas of common interest to both buyers and sellers, where larger numbers of transactions take place, fueling greater price movements. The price movement takes the greatest number of traders AWAY from their orders, to the extremes, where stops are triggered, money is lost, accounts are blown and dreams are shattered. Just like the deer who congregate around "salt blocks", an area of congestion, the traders are eventually slaughtered in mass....

Every trader on this forum, at one time or another, has placed an order, in a fast moving market, only to see price turn and RUN away from them, leaving their order flickering like the flame on top or bottom of a candle wick...

FROEX, the game of selling lies....

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #623
  • Oct 31, 2015 11:24am Oct 31, 2015 11:24am
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Every trader on this forum, at one time or another, has placed an order, in a fast moving market, only to see price turn and RUN away from them, leaving their order flickering like the flame on top or bottom of a candle wick... FROEX, the game of selling lies.... -CJ-
The analogy I have is jumping onto a fast moving train, along with many others. You're too scared that you will miss the train. Well, what happens to the fast moving train with all the extra weight? Hmmm.
  • #624
  • Oct 31, 2015 12:40pm Oct 31, 2015 12:40pm
Quoting jen101
{quote} The analogy I have is jumping onto a fast moving train, along with many others. You're too scared that you will miss the train. Well, what happens to the fast moving train with all the extra weight? Hmmm.
FOMO disease. Perhaps the toughest thing for me to get over. I still suffer from it occasionally. Not even sure there's a cure but least experience is a good treatment.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #625
  • Oct 31, 2015 1:08pm Oct 31, 2015 1:08pm
Where are retards most likely to have their stop loss? under a recent low? great, I'll go long there.
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  • #626
  • Oct 31, 2015 1:41pm Oct 31, 2015 1:41pm
Quoting GDR3k
Where are retards most likely to have their stop loss? under a recent low? great, I'll go long there. {image}
.... And you do it better than anyone amigo.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #627
  • Oct 31, 2015 10:30pm Oct 31, 2015 10:30pm
Quoting Captain Jack
Once you know their cycle and the tracks they lay, you have a better understanding as to what is happening and what "may" happen... Take AUDJPY in this case.... Asian session, which doesn't normally have the transactions to drop price like this, that fast, showed them parking price right after the drop... I can tell you there are many traders who jumped the short side with late orders and are now "stuck".... Asian session is for setting the high and low for the day and then ranging.... they are walking the price up away from the trapped shorts,...
When I made this post, I was going to walk the PA through as it happened but responsibilities didn't allow. Here's how they worked this pair, and they've done it 3 times now over 3 days... When they hold the crosses, like this pair, it's to work the majors and when the majors are held, the crosses are moved... look for some nice movement here this coming week...all to the downside, however, longs may be enticed in before the move lower...

They've basically done all that I was talking about here... setting the H and L's, ranging, range expansion, push out of the range, head fakes, stop hunts and a nice straight away move Friday..... People see this as a ranging pair while I see it as profitable trade setups...

While not actively trading my accounts, I did set up a demo, to illustrate the profit potential in these setups. The large order was placed at the bottom of the "W" and a few more stacked orders were added on the way up. Something to think about when you see those "ranging pairs" and know the routines.

I may step in this week with a live account, in order to take advantage of the coming move. Price tends to move in 3-5 day cycles and a new cycle is about to begin.

-CJ-
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #628
  • Edited 2:38am Nov 1, 2015 2:23am | Edited 2:38am
Quoting GDR3k
Where are retards most likely to have their stop loss? under a recent low? great, I'll go long there. {image}
That's not going to always win you the money.

Often Stops are triggered to provide the Volume to feed the Trend.

You would be just adding to that Volume.

I take it, from your arrogance, you are a winning Trader who hangs around FF for what exactly?
  • #629
  • Nov 1, 2015 6:37am Nov 1, 2015 6:37am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} That's not going to always win you the money. Often Stops are triggered to provide the Volume to feed the Trend. You would be just adding to that Volume. I take it, from your arrogance, you are a winning Trader who hangs around FF for what exactly?
.... No disrespect intended but, really, you have no idea.

Yes he is. For many years too. He's put up many live TE's here and at FxBook over the years and the results are nothing short of fantastic! Might want to check his current one here? Just a thought.

Personally, I wish he'd hang out here a lot more like he used to when we traded together in my thread for almost a year straight. If I were 25% as profitable as GD (and half as fast at making those profits), I might not bother seeking to improve any further.

Great guy! Great trader! Scalps those little bounces you refer to with large positions AND .... he does it with PO's!! Most of his trades are taken and banked when he's out living life or sleeping. LOL ... Once I get settled in a new place, I intend to implement his method myself. I was with him through much of it's development and refining.

You could maybe show a little respect ... eh? At least until you know what you're talking about?

Sorry for the highjack CJ.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #630
  • Nov 1, 2015 7:12am Nov 1, 2015 7:12am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} That's not going to always win you the money. Often Stops are triggered to provide the Volume to feed the Trend. You would be just adding to that Volume. I take it, from your arrogance, you are a winning Trader who hangs around FF for what exactly?
He doesn't hang around FF; only when he's bored he comes out to take the pee.........
  • #631
  • Nov 1, 2015 7:43am Nov 1, 2015 7:43am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} That's not going to always win you the money. Often Stops are triggered to provide the Volume to feed the Trend. You would be just adding to that Volume. I take it, from your arrogance, you are a winning Trader who hangs around FF for what exactly?
Not always but the hitrate is a lot more than 50% @ 1:1 r:r.



Fo' shits n giggles.
  • #632
  • Nov 1, 2015 8:08am Nov 1, 2015 8:08am
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} Not always but the hitrate is a lot more than 50% @ 1:1 r:r. Fo' shits n giggles.
I'm sure you are a capable Trader, you don't need me to tell you that, I just don't like arrogance.

You are right though look for the Trapped Traders and Trade with the Volume their Stops provide.
  • #633
  • Nov 1, 2015 8:16am Nov 1, 2015 8:16am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} I'm sure you are a capable Trader, you don't need me to tell you that, I just don't like arrogance. You are right though look for the Trapped Traders and Trade with the Volume their Stops provide.
There is so much testosterone here, it could blow up a nuclear power station.
  • #634
  • Nov 1, 2015 8:22am Nov 1, 2015 8:22am
Quoting jen101
{quote} There is so much testosterone here, it could blow up a nuclear power station.
You are right, but there's no room for ego within the Markets you will soon be found out. I could go on but there's probably no point!
  • #635
  • Nov 1, 2015 8:27am Nov 1, 2015 8:27am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} You are right, but there's no room for ego within the Markets you will soon be found out. I could go on but there's probably no point!
I don't suffer from testosterone related afflictions .
  • #636
  • Nov 1, 2015 8:32am Nov 1, 2015 8:32am
the next H4, EUR/USD
it is up or down?
Please show it for me. Thanks
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  • #637
  • Nov 1, 2015 8:37am Nov 1, 2015 8:37am
[quote=albchr;8569224]{quote} .... No disrespect intended but, really, you have no idea. Yes he is. For many years too. He's put up many live TE's here and at FxBook over the years and the results are nothing short of fantastic! Might want to check his current one here? Just a thought. {quote}

I took a look at the TE. Profitable , yes.....fantastic, no. I haven't seen anything fantastic anywhere so far though I wish I did.
  • #638
  • Nov 1, 2015 9:01am Nov 1, 2015 9:01am
Quoting skyway
I took a look at the TE. Profitable , yes.....fantastic, no. I haven't seen anything fantastic anywhere so far though I wish I did.
That's only one of many over the years but ... whatever. He has no need to brag and I have no need to defend him. Have a great week.

But if 300% in a month isn't good enough for ya. Well .... Show me better from you.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #639
  • Nov 1, 2015 9:40am Nov 1, 2015 9:40am
Just saying that I am interested in this thread and all its ramblings, but until someone steps up with some kind of scientific basis with statistics and empirical evidence, I am kinda afraid a lot of it would get almost nowhere....

Or maybe its just me.
  • #640
  • Nov 1, 2015 10:27am Nov 1, 2015 10:27am
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} When I made this post, I was going to walk the PA through as it happened but responsibilities didn't allow. Here's how they worked this pair, and they've done it 3 times now over 3 days... When they hold the crosses, like this pair, it's to work the majors and when the majors are held, the crosses are moved... look for some nice movement here this coming week...all to the downside, however, longs may be enticed in before the move lower... They've basically done all that I was talking about here... setting the H and L's, ranging, range expansion,...
GM CJ
To add what you are saying often almost always particular pair gets pushed when there is important data release and not much else going.Example last week it was the Cad pairs.She got hammered then later of the week recovered to a degree.
Week before UC was in a range not much going.I am particularly attracted to Cad pairs because I can keep an eye on OIL.I made 75% of my money last 4months buying the CAD against USD and Aussie.
GU and all G pairs this week is data heavy and we will see sharp moves ahead.
regards
Looking at this you can tell MM pushed GU Friday from 5319 to 5460 basically destroying all short stops
I'll be interested to start selling this from 61R-100R
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