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Why it is possible to predict price movement?

  • #361
  • Oct 24, 2015 12:45pm Oct 24, 2015 12:45pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Cap'n I been watching you for awhile. The only reason I could give a good explanation is that I understand your work. As far as the spread goes, I had to stop using stops because of how my broker widens spreads during wick activity. That will mess up your TA. You will get filled before price reaches your carefully crafted line. So on my own thread I put in a parameter for that. What I did not know is that most everyone on this site is a rookie trader. Just venting, sorry. Anyways, you got some some good sh*t here. I was admonished to not...
Unfortunately, I won't have time to stay active like this. I hit dormant periods all the time. That's why I'm not trading of late. I've got some nursing help at home this weekend, Hospice comes several times a week and I'm getting a break, but my wife requires 24/7 care. But I do stop by the forums when I can.

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #362
  • Oct 24, 2015 12:47pm Oct 24, 2015 12:47pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Good explanations there, thanks for the input. There's another indication that those pins point to a turn...they widen the spread during the formation of the wick. Open up an order box and you can watch it. You won't find this stuff anywhere but from me and those who are studying the methods if you call it that. I started it on a private forum and decided to move it out to the public forums. There's some mirroring of the info on some Polish forums, I know because they ask for my permission, which I had no problem with and there are some...
CJ in regards to the widening of the spread being visible on the tick chart, how long would this pattern last for us to know the pin is reversible?, would you be looking at a daily, 4HR or 1HR and have the tick chart open for how long before you got in? thanks a million.
  • #363
  • Oct 24, 2015 12:49pm Oct 24, 2015 12:49pm
Great discussion guys.
I use charts as well and its seems like everyone on here uses charts, but it also seems like charts are all that is being used. No offense, but charts are yesteryear, yestermonth, yesterday, yesterhour, and yesterminute data.
I have been using charts for a short time frame entry triggers into a longer time frame trades and I also use charts for my profit targets and stop target levels.
I would really like to find someone that can help me find some data for FX that is outside of charts and I don't mean news data that tries to give everyone an answer to why the market moved yesterday.

Does anyone have any resources they use outside of chart which helps them determine which direction to trade in the next hour or two?
  • #364
  • Oct 24, 2015 12:54pm Oct 24, 2015 12:54pm
my worries are increasing and do not like where these talks heading to. it all starts just like that. you have been warned.
As Above, So Below
  • #365
  • Oct 24, 2015 12:56pm Oct 24, 2015 12:56pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Good explanations there, thanks for the input. There's another indication that those pins point to a turn...they widen the spread during the formation of the wick. Open up an order box and you can watch it. You won't find this stuff anywhere but from me and those who are studying the methods if you call it that. I started it on a private forum and decided to move it out to the public forums. There's some mirroring of the info on some Polish forums, I know because they ask for my permission, which I had no problem with and there are...
That's my bread and butter (:

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  • #366
  • Oct 24, 2015 1:14pm Oct 24, 2015 1:14pm
Quoting venividivici
{quote} CJ in regards to the widening of the spread being visible on the tick chart, how long would this pattern last for us to know the pin is reversible?, would you be looking at a daily, 4HR or 1HR and have the tick chart open for how long before you got in? thanks a million.
It's visible in the order box, not the tick chart... they will hold it that way for as long as the buys and sells are flowing in.... those are areas of common interest for longs and shorts.... and they are skimming pips off each trade.

I would imagine that you would have the time period open that you are trading on... and there's no set rule for when you get in. Watch em and trade em then you get the feel for it. I get it in when I think they have pushed it as far as they are going to... if I enter and they push farther, I'll add another order each time they push it. When it's done, I know they aren't going back to release any trapped orders so your SL if you want one is 10-15 pips beyond the pin. If it's a pin high, then the trapped orders are longs who got in late on the price run up... nobody's shorting into the run up except the MM.

Understand that when this is forming, you are seeing a solid candle. They may pull back a bit and start exposing the wick but they still have to sell the lie of price continuation, once the wick appears, they won't go back up unless it's to lie and extend a little further, enticing more orders in the wrong direction. Most of the time they have already hit the stops... unless some dumbo throws something else out their just above the top, they're not going back. They do this over 2 candles as well, creating the RRT's.... sometimes they push the 2nd candle a bit higher to sell the continuation lie and you get a 2nd chance for better entry. It's a gift when you get it.

Don't forget if it's they are topping out with an "M" formation then you have to be careful with your stop if set due to the 2nd leg of the "M"... sometimes I'll take entry on 1st leg, take profit at the "V" and enter again on 2nd leg... lots of things you can do up there...

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #367
  • Oct 24, 2015 1:25pm Oct 24, 2015 1:25pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Unfortunately, I won't have time to stay active like this. I hit dormant periods all the time. That's why I'm not trading of late. I've got some nursing help at home this weekend, Hospice comes several times a week and I'm getting a break, but my wife requires 24/7 care. But I do stop by the forums when I can. -CJ-
My sympathies. All the best to you, your wife & families.
Charts are limited in nature. What is the relative location?
  • #368
  • Oct 24, 2015 1:37pm Oct 24, 2015 1:37pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} It's visible in the order box, not the tick chart... they will hold it that way for as long as the buys and sells are flowing in.... those are areas of common interest for longs and shorts.... and they are skimming pips off each trade. I would imagine that you would have the time period open that you are trading on... and there's no set rule for when you get in. Watch em and trade em then you get the feel for it. I get it in when I think they have pushed it as far as they are going to... if I enter and they push farther, I'll add another...
Another excellent answer, cant expect any less than excellency from this man, thank so much again CJ. My blessings.

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  • #369
  • Oct 24, 2015 1:41pm Oct 24, 2015 1:41pm
Quoting tashkent
my worries are increasing and do not like where these talks heading to. it all starts just like that. you have been warned.
What do you mean ?
  • #370
  • Oct 24, 2015 2:31pm Oct 24, 2015 2:31pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I think what Cap'n is saying is that wicks tell the story of intent. If the IT's are buying, they want to push price down thru some known areas where retailers will get short. BRNs, Prior lows, fib levels, etc. But the wicks do not lie. If you see candles with long wicks down then they intend to push long at some point. The long name for a pin bar is Pinocchio bar. It you see a long nose down, then they are lying. Buy. And vice versa if short. Put that together with known price patterns and you have the framework for making a lot of money....
The wicks, the "intent" of wicks and Pincchio thing I totally get. The problem I have with where this discussion is going (and to be honest "problem" is perhaps too strong a word - let's say "reservation") is that unless a retail trader on leverage is absolutely resolute in his understanding of how the cycle of these markets plays out, buying as tails are forming is potentially a very dangerous business. I wouldn't say it's lethal - I've traded in the company of those who bought tails, however, they always used a hard stop.

In my view, the safer way to operate is to let the market turn then trade "with trend" (still struggle using this phrase but it serves a point) There was a guy around here who used to go by the moniker "Doctor". Something he used to say resonated with me and still does. He talked about "candles in context". It's a simple phrase but perfectly describes not only the M patterns and BARF pattern (I also look for N patterns and something I've named N4iRB) but importantly the key levels where these patterns manifest. Rather than trading on wicks alone, by at least waiting for these processes to play out we've got a pretty decent heads up that the weight of the institutions' "intent" is behind us.

Like you guys, I've been down many of the rabbit holes too only to discover that most of them were cul-de-sacs. The biggest setback with price-action patterns, including candles with wicks, is that they occur all over the charts. But without the context we become the fox that chases its own tail. This week's USDCHF chart below can be a good example. For my own personal reasons I don't show trade entries but this chart is marked up and has been used "as is".

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If a trader was just focusing on the wicks it would've been possible for him to "assume" that this wick was a sign of buying weakness and that the market was about to set up a move down. In fact this wick was clearing out the stops to the left after which the candle closes formed a support for buying continuation.
  • #371
  • Oct 24, 2015 3:31pm Oct 24, 2015 3:31pm
Quoting kk007
Can anyone give me a good answer?
More importantly, Can anyone ask a better question???....for example...Is it even necessary to PREDICT price???...could the NEED to predict price be hiding a deeper need to be RIGHT? To feel SMART? To boost the EGO? And ultimately, is it possible to make money trading by simply FOLLOWING price..without bothering to PREDICT??? Can we simply REACT to price and succeed? There is more than one way of trading successfully and profitably. It can be a bit irritating when people keep insinuating THEIR way is the BEST and/or ONLY way to trade profitably. If you are predicting price and succeeding profitably, FINE! If you are REACTING and FOLLOWING price and succeeding profitably, FINE! There is no good or bad way. Best or worst way. There is no ONLY way! The only way that matters is the way that is PROFITABLE for you! To each his own!
  • #372
  • Oct 24, 2015 6:47pm Oct 24, 2015 6:47pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Unfortunately, I won't have time to stay active like this. I hit dormant periods all the time. That's why I'm not trading of late. I've got some nursing help at home this weekend, Hospice comes several times a week and I'm getting a break, but my wife requires 24/7 care. But I do stop by the forums when I can. -CJ-
Cap'n, I am very, very, familiar with Hospice. Here's to you and your wife.

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If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #373
  • Oct 24, 2015 7:34pm Oct 24, 2015 7:34pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} More importantly, Can anyone ask a better question???....for example...Is it even necessary to PREDICT price???...could the NEED to predict price be hiding a deeper need to be RIGHT? To feel SMART? To boost the EGO? And ultimately, is it possible to make money trading by simply FOLLOWING price..without bothering to PREDICT??? Can we simply REACT to price and succeed? There is more than one way of trading successfully and profitably. It can be a bit irritating when people keep insinuating THEIR way is the BEST and/or ONLY way to trade profitably....
what do you mean?

how can you "Follow" Price? if the eur/usd is down do you sell? if so you are still predicting that price will continue to decrease.
Unless you are making money of commission or arbitrage you are always predicting.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #374
  • Oct 24, 2015 7:39pm Oct 24, 2015 7:39pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} I see the Mona Lisa in all those -1's And how do your calculations explain the GBPJPY tick and D1 charts? Do you think that a one off anomaly? It's not.... Let me throw some more crap into the hopper.... these patterns are not a one and done on the lower time frames.... do you think that tick chart tells an endless, ever changing story? It doesn't it runs the same patterns over and over, in a loop building the active candle patterns on the charts.... YES IT DOES... IT IS THE BLUEPRINT FOR THE BUILDER Why do you think they make it so small...
here is where you lose all credibility.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #375
  • Oct 24, 2015 7:40pm Oct 24, 2015 7:40pm
@ Captain Jack- one of the best reads ever on price actin mechanics, Hands down.

You gave a lot, and for me - very appreciative of your time to post all that you have.

I hope that you will post more.

Manny prayers your way and to your wife
Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
  • #376
  • Oct 24, 2015 7:52pm Oct 24, 2015 7:52pm
Quoting zacorbul
{quote} What do you mean ?
the predator
As Above, So Below
  • #377
  • Oct 24, 2015 8:02pm Oct 24, 2015 8:02pm
There are a lot of ignorantly blind, desperate losing traders.
  • #378
  • Oct 24, 2015 9:02pm Oct 24, 2015 9:02pm
Quoting the redlion
{quote} here is where you lose all credibility.
I came here with no credibility to begin with and further more, I'm under no obligation to provide credibility to you or anyone else. My results are credible and they have been proven and verified, time and time again by hundreds if not thousands to people over the past years. As a matter of fact, you might even say the results are incredible! They stand the test of time.

I have asked you to use your scientific and mathematical formula to disprove ANYTHING I have said as well as the examples I have posted. You have failed to do so, only bringing forth your opinion of disbelief and an attack on my credibility. I, on the other hand, have posted examples of long term price prediction (verified), predictive chart patterns (verified), repetitive patterns across all time frames (verified), tick chart to D1 and beyond, pattern maturations (verified), trade examples, and have answered nearly every question posed to me. All verified with credible results, now as well as over the past years. You have provided your opinion of disbelief but have disproved nothing, so in the end you have no credible results to show us.

It is your own self doubt that leads to your attack on my credibility, as I stated earlier. Again, I was correct and your attack confirms it.

I thank God I'm not confined by the reality in which you reside.

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #379
  • Oct 24, 2015 10:15pm Oct 24, 2015 10:15pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} the predator
Sheeps clothing?
  • #380
  • Oct 24, 2015 11:09pm Oct 24, 2015 11:09pm
Quoting Kong
{quote} Sheeps clothing?
Sheep's clothing not required if you're counter party to my trade...

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
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