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  • #401
  • Jun 1, 2015 8:20am Jun 1, 2015 8:20am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Japanese Yen
COT Change (52W) / C – 36%, LS – 35%, SS – 17% /
COT Extreme / SS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is becoming pretty bullish in the Japanese Yen. We have a bullish cot change signal, relative bullish extreme in LS and C and an unquestionable large bullish cot extreme in SS positions.

Soybeans
COT Extreme / LS – 537 report COT extreme /
It looks like the bullish cot extreme from last year September was not enough for prices to maintain strength and we may see much greater extremes coming in the near future… so even though we have this bullish extreme, I’d very cautious.

Coffee
COT Extreme / C, LS – 75 report COT extreme /
As we can see, the bearish cot extreme from last year that managed to draw prices down, is gradually leaving the field… we are getting closer and closer to a bullish cot extreme!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report21_Coffee.png Size: 116 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report21_Soybeans.png Size: 110 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report21_JPY.png Size: 122 KB
  • #402
  • Jun 1, 2015 10:25am Jun 1, 2015 10:25am
Thanks dunstan, the yen is interesting, would have expected the large players to be positioned more aggressively
  • #403
  • Jun 3, 2015 3:23am Jun 3, 2015 3:23am
Quoting verv
Thanks dunstan, the yen is interesting, would have expected the large players to be positioned more aggressively
Hi Verv,

Yen is truly very interesting... Of course it would be much easier if we could see not only small speculators at such extreme levels, but also commercials and large speculators. Maybe in a few weeks time, they'll "join"

All the best,
Dunstan
  • #404
  • Edited 7:31am Jun 3, 2015 6:51am | Edited 7:31am
Dunstan,please post 5yr charts for commodities: AUD, CAD and NZD...and EUR.

Kindly can you explain COT extreme?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #405
  • Jun 5, 2015 4:40am Jun 5, 2015 4:40am
Quoting mima
Dunstan,please post 5yr charts for commodities: AUD, CAD and NZD...and EUR. Kindly can you explain COT extreme?
Hi Mima,

Attached to the post, you will find the charts you asked for.
If you don't mind, I'd rather not write it down again, since I've alread done it in the beginning of this thread. You can find my explanation of cot extremes in post5. There are also some good videos on the site I use that explain it in details: http://cotbase.com/how-to-use

All the best,
Dunstan
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report21_EUR.png Size: 215 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report21_NZD.png Size: 247 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report21_CAD.png Size: 230 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report21_AUD.png Size: 265 KB
  • #406
  • Jun 10, 2015 4:01am Jun 10, 2015 4:01am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 53%, LS – 26%, SS – 35% /
Without an extreme to talk about, it is only the larger change in Traders positions (mainly Commercials) that has any signal value for us --> bearish cot change signal, possibly effecting prices this week… I’d move on to other markets.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
With the all-time cot extreme present in the market, we have an unquestionable cot extreme signal (bullish of course). I love currencies in this respect, because these are very reliable signals! Have a look at the chart and you will see that in the past how well the New Zealand Dollar has reacted to these extremes. Of course don’t forget that these extremes may stay in place for many weeks before the action starts!

Orange Juice
COT Extreme / LS – 612 report COT extreme /
Although not all-time, but clearly a huge cot extreme here as well (and again bullish). If you have a look at OJs history, you will find that Large Speculators were very rarely bearish in the market… but whenever they were, shortly after that prices hit a bottom and from then on, prices rallied. I’m expecting something similar to happen again.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report22_Orange Juice.png Size: 243 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report22_NZD.png Size: 264 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report22_Nasdaq-100.png Size: 255 KB
  • #407
  • Jun 15, 2015 4:16am Jun 15, 2015 4:16am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Silver
COT Change (52W) / C – 43%, LS – 49%, SS – 27% /
On one side we have this bullish cot change signal and on the other side we have the bearish cot extreme (more visible two reports ago). This could mean that we will see a bit of rise in the next few days, but for the next few weeks we expect further weakening in prices.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Further declining in prices as the extreme becomes larger… if you remember my last sentence in last week’s post, you shouldn’t be surprised --> these extremes bay be present in a market for many weeks before we see price reaction!

Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
After the decline of 2014, we have once again reached a bullish cot extreme… not only a large one, but one that we have never seen in the past. It is truly a strong signal, one that shouldn’t be neglected! I think we have opportunities here

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report23_Natural Gas.png Size: 228 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report23_NZD.png Size: 264 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report23_Silver.png Size: 239 KB
  • #408
  • Jun 23, 2015 5:35am Jun 23, 2015 5:35am
Hi everyone,

COTbase did not post a new review, but anyhow, I’ll still update for you!

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 81%, LS – 71% /
Bearish cot change signal that was large enough to push the market to a cot extreme that is considerable. This means that all our major cot signals have become red, but of course caution is advised, indexes – in my opinion – do not react to cot signals as well as other markets do.

Palladium
COT Extreme / C, LS – 133 report COT extreme /
The cot extreme is becoming larger, we can talk about a relative extreme, bullish of course. In case of SS, they are at a much larger extreme, pessimistic about the market which of course is great news for buyers!

Corn
COT Extreme / C – 71, LS – 73 report COT extreme /
We can see a widening extreme as prices go lower. Has the time come to buy again? Well there could be much greater extremes, but as the las bottom shows, a relative cot extreme of this strength is already capable of influencing prices.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report24_Corn.png Size: 229 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report24_Palladium.png Size: 231 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report24_Nasdaq-100.png Size: 256 KB
  • #409
  • Jun 23, 2015 9:04pm Jun 23, 2015 9:04pm
This from JPM shows graphically some pretty extended positioning.
Personally I like watching the non-reporting open int. numers (small traders). That can pinpoint extremes in sentiment/consensus etc.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JPM.PNG Size: 76 KB
  • #410
  • Jun 29, 2015 4:30am Jun 29, 2015 4:30am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybeans
COT Change (52W) / C – 52%, LS – 54%, SS – 14% /
By having such a large bearish cot change signal, one might think that we are in for a huge drop in prices… well lower prices in the next few days is highly possible, but let’s look at the bigger picture. You can see that the market is moving away from bullish extreme levels. These levels are not far yet and there is plenty of space in the opposite direction --> The rally can continue in the long run.


Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 50%, LS – 42%, SS – 39 /
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
All major cot signals are pointing heavily downwards, not much that I can add here

New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Patience. That’s what we need now… The picture is crystal clear, we’ve never witnessed such a bullish cot extreme in New Zealand Dollar in the past, we are expecting this to have an effect on prices. When? Maybe now, maybe only after a few months.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report25_NZD.png Size: 265 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report25_Nasdaq-100.png Size: 240 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report25_Soybeans.png Size: 227 KB
  • #411
  • Jul 13, 2015 4:07am Jul 13, 2015 4:07am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Heating Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 15%, SS – 37% /
Bullish cot change signal: possible rise in prices this week.
COT extreme: not that long ago we had a bullish extreme, prices reacted, but the rally was short living and we are once again seeing dropping prices. Until we breach 2015’s lows, I’d say that we’ve still some change to see rising prices.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Last week we saw a bit of a rise… does it confirm the end of the decline? Volume and OI analysis does not support…

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Not much to say here either: all time cot extreme, huge bullish signal, but as NZD shows, we may need to wait a “little” to see higher prices.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report27_MXP.png Size: 270 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report27_NZD.png Size: 264 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report27_Heating Oil.png Size: 276 KB
  • #412
  • Jul 20, 2015 4:42am Jul 20, 2015 4:42am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 28%, SS – 38% /
The bearish cot change signal came a bit late, but looking at that chart patterns, it may have launched another down leg in prices. Although not long ago, we had the bullish cot extreme – giving prices a little momentum – we can witness what happened the last couple of times, when we had such a scenario. Ok, now you might say: “Hey D, that wasn’t oo helpful… tell me, what to do then?” …well I think until a cot extreme signal is breached, we should stick to it: until we see a lower bottom, the signal is in place and we have a good chance to see the rally develop further.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
I could only repeat myself… patience.

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
I could only repeat myself… patience.


All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report28_NZD.png Size: 271 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report28_MXP.png Size: 264 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report28_Sugar.png Size: 250 KB
  • #413
  • Jul 22, 2015 2:24pm Jul 22, 2015 2:24pm
Cocoa looks interesting. Commercials are so short..
  • #414
  • Jul 23, 2015 3:22am Jul 23, 2015 3:22am
Quoting Ck87
Cocoa looks interesting. Commercials are so short..
Yes, truly there is a large extreme! We are at a good resistance level, so it seems to be a nice Risk/Reward trade...

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report28_Cocoa.png Size: 243 KB
  • #415
  • Jul 23, 2015 12:33pm Jul 23, 2015 12:33pm
Hi Dunstan, what did you think of the NZD reaction last night?

Was it expected, and could that kind of thing be predicted in the future?

The COT was the most extreme ever, are there any kind of statistics surrounding all time extremes and extremely high impacting news events like a rate change?
  • #416
  • Jul 24, 2015 7:39am Jul 24, 2015 7:39am
Quoting verv
Hi Dunstan, what did you think of the NZD reaction last night? Was it expected, and could that kind of thing be predicted in the future? The COT was the most extreme ever, are there any kind of statistics surrounding all time extremes and extremely high impacting news events like a rate change?
Hi verv,

I don't see anything extraordinary in NZD... The higher prices that we could see the last couple of days was something very likely to happen, since we have this bullish cot extreme in the market. Of course it does not necessarily mean that we will see the continuation of the rally, but it's a good sign that eventually we are going to reach a bottom.

I don't know about statistics regarding cot extremes, at least I've never came across any... but if you analyze the charts you can come to some sort of conclusion of their effectiveness. One important note: market by market they vary. So cot extreme signals may be effective in grains, but less effective in indexes for example.

All the best,
Dunstan
  • #417
  • Jul 25, 2015 11:24am Jul 25, 2015 11:24am
Dear Dunstan,

Many thanks for your consistently excellent contribution to my still rudimentary understanding of CoT analysis - in recognition of which, I thought you and your other readers should see this which is 'hot off the press':

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...sition-in-gold

What will the Commercials do now? I suggest: "Buy!" if not now, then at least we have been warned.

If I am 'jumping the gun', please forgive my ignorance and enthusiasam in equal measure.

Yours sincerely,

Hamish.
  • #418
  • Jul 28, 2015 4:23am Jul 28, 2015 4:23am
Quoting itshamish
Dear Dunstan, Many thanks for your consistently excellent contribution to my still rudimentary understanding of CoT analysis - in recognition of which, I thought you and your other readers should see this which is 'hot off the press': http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...sition-in-gold What will the Commercials do now? I suggest: "Buy!" if not now, then at least we have been warned. If I am 'jumping the gun', please forgive my ignorance and enthusiasam in equal measure. Yours sincerely,...
Hi Hamish,

Thank you so much for your kind post! I’ve read the article but first I could not understand… See attached my longer term chart on Gold and you will find large Speculators being net short many times during the 90’s for example. Then I figured it should be referring to managed money under the disaggregated cot report. Yeeees, now I see… very interesting. To tell you the truth, I don’t analyze the disaggregated reports, but the analogy should be the same with extremes, thus we can talk about a bullish cot extreme here. Since historical data on these types of reports are limited, I’d warn you to be cautious. Looking at the classical, so called legacy report, we do not have an all time cot extreme… nevertheless, it is large and bullish.

All the best,
Dunstan
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report29_Gold_legacy now.png Size: 107 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report29_Gold_legacy 90s.png Size: 91 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report29_Gold_disaggregated.png Size: 158 KB
  • #419
  • Jul 28, 2015 4:24am Jul 28, 2015 4:24am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 54%, LS – 44%, SS – 36% /
After last week’s bearish cot change signal, now we can see an even greater bullish one. Prices have gone further down as it was expected, although not breaching the support level of the last major bottom --> bullish cot extreme signal is still in place. Now of course the chances are pretty high that we will see Traders changing their positions in the same manner as last week, thus pushing prices even lower / their positions to bullish extreme levels.

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
No change from last week.

Oats
COT Extreme / C - 332, LS – 267 report COT extreme /
We have a huge bullish extreme in Oats, so definitely keep watching this market for trading opportunities!


All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report29_Oats.png Size: 119 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report29_MXP.png Size: 130 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report29_Sugar.png Size: 122 KB
  • #420
  • Jul 28, 2015 4:28am Jul 28, 2015 4:28am
Hi Hamish,

Sorry, I've posted wrong charts for you... my bad. Here are the good ones.

Dunstan
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report29_Gold_legacy now.png Size: 112 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report29_Gold_legacy 90s.png Size: 130 KB
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