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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #34,361
  • Jul 7, 2015 4:23pm Jul 7, 2015 4:23pm
Quoting SunTrader
I don't think you understand the meaning of the word scalping.
How would you define "scalping"?
  • #34,362
  • Jul 8, 2015 4:13am Jul 8, 2015 4:13am
So by reading these articles the real production price of gold falls between 1,100 $/oz - 1,200 $/oz

https://www.explorationinsights.com/...asp?relid=3443

http://business.financialpost.com/ne...-ounce-of-gold

http://www.coindesk.com/microscope-t...ld-production/

Then there were articles stating that the price of gold will skyrocket in the future because of increasing production costs, inflation and dwindling of gold as a natural resource. There are claims in those texts that with the current production the gold reserves will be depleted in 20 years.

What do you think?
  • #34,363
  • Jul 8, 2015 5:41am Jul 8, 2015 5:41am
Quoting merquise
So by reading these articles the real production price of gold falls between 1,100 $/oz - 1,200 $/oz https://www.explorationinsights.com/...asp?relid=3443 http://business.financialpost.com/ne...-ounce-of-gold http://www.coindesk.com/microscope-t...ld-production/ Then there were articles stating that the price of gold will skyrocket in the future because of increasing production costs, inflation and dwindling of gold as a natural resource. There are claims...
I think you are right, but this won't do much if Goldman sachs, JPMorgan and the rest ass... decide to sell now, and run the price illogically with some more 50$ down wiping your account, so it is kind of luck to find the level at which they will run out of steam selling, maybe they already did, maybe not
  • #34,364
  • Jul 8, 2015 12:10pm Jul 8, 2015 12:10pm
Quoting merquise
So by reading these articles the real production price of gold falls between 1,100 $/oz - 1,200 $/oz https://www.explorationinsights.com/...asp?relid=3443 http://business.financialpost.com/ne...-ounce-of-gold http://www.coindesk.com/microscope-t...ld-production/ Then there were articles stating that the price of gold will skyrocket in the future because of increasing production costs, inflation and dwindling of gold as a natural resource. There are claims...
This little move up looks nothing more than a fib 127.2, 88.6 and low low wick tl reaction to me. 900s won't surprise me, but by then your local coin shop may have closed. Shock and disbelieve a normal part of markets, one I take into consideration. . . Physical as investment option a different ball game, coin will lay there still and unaffected by all this chaos till it eventually skyrocket but I have no clue when
  • #34,365
  • Jul 8, 2015 2:22pm Jul 8, 2015 2:22pm
In short, trying to be rational in an irrational trading environment will only give you trichotillomania. Trade the algorithms, follow the big picture because the closer you look the less you will see. Taking a break from this freak show..........
  • #34,366
  • Jul 8, 2015 2:37pm Jul 8, 2015 2:37pm
Quoting RisingSun
{quote} How would you define "scalping"?
Trading seconds to minutes for maybe as long as a total of 15-30 minutes.

Something I stopped doing long ago when I realized to make money and keep it, move out to higher time frames is the way to go.
  • #34,367
  • Jul 8, 2015 11:42pm Jul 8, 2015 11:42pm
Quoting atom3
{quote} I think you are right, but this won't do much if Goldman sachs, JPMorgan and the rest ass... decide to sell now, and run the price illogically with some more 50$ down wiping your account, so it is kind of luck to find the level at which they will run out of steam selling, maybe they already did, maybe not
It won't be JPMorgan selling. Since I last posted they've continued to increase their silver holdings and now have the largest hoard of silver in trading history, virtually draining all silver ETFs of the physical silver they are supposed to hold. Also, the US Mint ran out of American Silver Eagles yesterday, so I wouldn't bank on seeing significantly lower prices for silver, and at least up until this point, as goes silver, so too goes gold.

It's getting ever closer to the day that the markets are forced to stop pretending that paper metal is actually worth anything. However, the markets love pretending so who can say if that day will ever come.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #34,368
  • Jul 9, 2015 1:15am Jul 9, 2015 1:15am
On the daily chart, the price is within the shark harmonic pattern range. We are expecting to have a surge if the demand fuels up across the market.
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  • #34,369
  • Jul 9, 2015 5:33am Jul 9, 2015 5:33am
I guess Silver being at a 5 year low is bullish to some?

I see prices going only one way for a long time as a trend. Crazy, huh?

Now if there was some sign that the trend has actually turned maybe my opinion my turn too. Until then I continue to be bearish.
  • #34,370
  • Jul 9, 2015 1:12pm Jul 9, 2015 1:12pm
Quoting SunTrader
I guess Silver being at a 5 year low is bullish to some? I see prices going only one way for a long time as a trend. Crazy, huh? Now if there was some sign that the trend has actually turned maybe my opinion my turn too. Until then I continue to be bearish.
Four years ago people thought the same thing about gold and silver being at all-time highs, and again on the next rally up. Despite the optimism in metal prices, I started shorting gold at $1,790 at the end of 2012 (or thereabouts -- I was posting regularly back then if anyone wants to look it up). I have no way to know if metal prices have bottomed, but I do know that no market moves in one direction forever, and if players like JP Morgan are buying, I'm not going to bet against them.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #34,371
  • Jul 9, 2015 4:22pm Jul 9, 2015 4:22pm
Gold is going back to 114x.xx after closing today below 1160.
Shorted the yellow metal on the correction price 1161. Hope on friday to hit 1147 again.. Maybe lower though bcz there's a broken channel up on h1/h4. Have a safe trading..
All indicators are showing down trend... All buyers be safe.
Redards.
  • #34,372
  • Jul 9, 2015 4:56pm Jul 9, 2015 4:56pm
Quoting KADC
{quote} Four years ago people thought the same thing about gold and silver being at all-time highs, and again on the next rally up. Despite the optimism in metal prices, I started shorting gold at $1,790 at the end of 2012 (or thereabouts -- I was posting regularly back then if anyone wants to look it up). I have no way to know if metal prices have bottomed, but I do know that no market moves in one direction forever, and if players like JP Morgan are buying, I'm not going to bet against them.
And 5 and 6 years ago people thought the same thing (and were right) ... and then as you say some thought higher still 4 years ago and it no they were wrong, wrong, wrong.

But of course there were also some who tried calling that eventual top a year or two early and got burned.

I try calling tops and bottoms but like to wait for confirmation - it actually has happened.
  • #34,373
  • Jul 9, 2015 6:54pm Jul 9, 2015 6:54pm
Point is, gold is the most hated of all commodities and the bear market is in it's early phase, pull up a monthly chart and look a the big picture, it's about to break down much lower.

$600 should hit in the next 5 years and a new bull run might start near 2020.

Sorry to say, but we have much further down to go.

There 100's of useless garbage miners that need to be flushed out that got pumped during the run to 1900, 89% of them need to go bust and the supply needs to go way down before the POG turns around.

My target is 1080 in 2015 and $800 2016 follow by a drop to $600 between 2018-2020
  • #34,374
  • Jul 9, 2015 7:10pm Jul 9, 2015 7:10pm
Happy that you can see out 3 to 5 years from now.
  • #34,375
  • Jul 9, 2015 8:27pm Jul 9, 2015 8:27pm
Quoting Stockman
Point is, gold is the most hated of all commodities and the bear market is in it's early phase, pull up a monthly chart and look a the big picture, it's about to break down much lower. $600 should hit in the next 5 years and a new bull run might start near 2020. Sorry to say, but we have much further down to go. There 100's of useless garbage miners that need to be flushed out that got pumped during the run to 1900, 89% of them need to go bust and the supply needs to go way down before the POG turns around. My target is 1080 in 2015 and $800 2016...

Since I saw once George Marechal's Dow Jones forecast chart, I can't argüe there must be some kind of long term analysis tool out there. I just don't know it.

I've always been curious about this kind of analysis tools and techniques.
Can you show a chart with your remarks?
  • #34,376
  • Jul 10, 2015 3:24am Jul 10, 2015 3:24am
Lol, I would like to see that too 600$, man only if a production costs are like 200$/oz which according to those articles are not
  • #34,377
  • Jul 10, 2015 3:53am Jul 10, 2015 3:53am
Quoting merquise
Lol, I would like to see that too 600$, man only if a production costs are like 200$/oz which according to those articles are not
600$ is too expensive i want the price at 10$ so i can buy a truck go to COMEX and load it with 10 tons of gold, so please keep shorting it
  • #34,378
  • Jul 10, 2015 6:21am Jul 10, 2015 6:21am
Gold WW
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  • #34,379
  • Jul 10, 2015 7:18am Jul 10, 2015 7:18am
looks like a H&S in the making on hourly chart
  • #34,380
  • Jul 10, 2015 8:31am Jul 10, 2015 8:31am
Quoting merquise
Lol, I would like to see that too 600$, man only if a production costs are like 200$/oz which according to those articles are not
Production costs are notoriously wrong in the media. Although I also doubt that they are down in the low $100's.
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