Nothing more to say. Discuss fundamentals here.
A useful thread is the cross market analysis thread found here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=493230
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Some opinions...
I have been a bit baffled by the market lately which seems to be chopping around a lot.
In spite of clear policy differences between the US and Europe and Japan, and clear differences in economic recoveries the dollar has been losing a bit of momentum. We also have other countries, such as Greece, whose stock market has experienced one of the worst sell off's in it's history, down about 20% on the week. That screams to me dollar strength but it is not what we have been seeing this week.
The move down in USDJPY prompted me to close out all USD related positions on Monday. My faith in the USD strength continuation has been rocked and I have taken to reassess that theory, as a result I haven't looked to open any positions this week. Simply put there is something going on I don't understand so I'm standing back.
However today someone on another forum I visit mentioned oil. We have all surely noticed that oil has fallen about 40% since July, but I hadn't made the connection with the forex market. Oil is of course globally priced in dollars. The global oil industry was worth last years something akin to 5 trillion dollars in trade, so one would expect that decreases in oil prices could have a significant impact on USD strength.
The guy on the forum believes that lower oil prices, with weaker demand means less trade in USD dollars, less dollar reserves required to buy oil and that obviously puts downward pressure on the USD - I thought it was an interesting observation, one I hadn't thought of. It makes sense to me as well, which is important because it allows me to envisage numerous scenarios that could unfold in the future.
That is the great benefit of forums like this.
You have many thousands of people expressing opinions and sometimes you find something really interesting that you would not have thought of on your own. Hoping to learn from you guys.
A useful thread is the cross market analysis thread found here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=493230
----------------------------------
Some opinions...
I have been a bit baffled by the market lately which seems to be chopping around a lot.
In spite of clear policy differences between the US and Europe and Japan, and clear differences in economic recoveries the dollar has been losing a bit of momentum. We also have other countries, such as Greece, whose stock market has experienced one of the worst sell off's in it's history, down about 20% on the week. That screams to me dollar strength but it is not what we have been seeing this week.
The move down in USDJPY prompted me to close out all USD related positions on Monday. My faith in the USD strength continuation has been rocked and I have taken to reassess that theory, as a result I haven't looked to open any positions this week. Simply put there is something going on I don't understand so I'm standing back.
However today someone on another forum I visit mentioned oil. We have all surely noticed that oil has fallen about 40% since July, but I hadn't made the connection with the forex market. Oil is of course globally priced in dollars. The global oil industry was worth last years something akin to 5 trillion dollars in trade, so one would expect that decreases in oil prices could have a significant impact on USD strength.
The guy on the forum believes that lower oil prices, with weaker demand means less trade in USD dollars, less dollar reserves required to buy oil and that obviously puts downward pressure on the USD - I thought it was an interesting observation, one I hadn't thought of. It makes sense to me as well, which is important because it allows me to envisage numerous scenarios that could unfold in the future.
That is the great benefit of forums like this.
You have many thousands of people expressing opinions and sometimes you find something really interesting that you would not have thought of on your own. Hoping to learn from you guys.