Hi All,
This is the first "thread" I have created and have no real intention to maintain it vigorously. To put it simply, I'm throwing a line out to see whether there are fish around. I have hesitated to create this thread for over 2 years now as I was not sure what purpose it would serve... in any case, I have decided to write this thread now - purely to see if there are like minded individuals out there (at least in FF) and hopefully create a network amongst like minded individuals as trading can be a very lonely avenue/profession. Additionally, I also believe there are much more intelligent individuals out there than I am... I'm hoping that they do come to FF and see this post and network.
So that there is no pretence... here's a quick intro to this thread.
For those looking for a magic bullet or a system/strategy or looking for a coach/mentor..... don't waste your time with this thread or requesting otherwise directly from me. This thread is intended to stimulate thoughts & discussions and get input from like minded or open minded individuals.
I will not be answering any personal questions with specific to my personal finance situation but simply put.. I'm happy where I am at with my trading. I request that all responders keep their post to this thread professional and relevant.
AND NO.. I AM NOT SELLING ANYTHING or any educational service etc... AND NO... I'm not interested in being given a large capital to invest and make money along the way... quite happy with my existing financial avenues and investing my own money... so please don't ask.. (as you can tell this is not my first rodeo).
With the intro done... moving on. Here's my take/story.
There are many indicators out there... (by extension strategies that use the indicators) mostly lagging and some would say a handful of leading... I personally have not found any leading ones that has worked for me in that way.
Like all surviving traders, we've all had our battle scars (some good and some bad) I've ventured into a number theories, books, strategies, indicators etc. but the one thing I have found is that there is no single source of truth.... i.e. no magic bullet.
For those still reading to see a magic bullet in this post... here it is... "Adaptability".... markets change you must be equipped to be adaptable.. no strategy is adaptable to all market conditions all the time.. so look to be adaptable and stop looking for strategies and EAs that only make its creators wealthier (no pun intended to individuals who are in this line of business). Not saying EAs cannot be adaptable or part of one's portfolio but that would be YOUR EA not someone else's.
Moving on...
I've tried back testing (in its technological form i.e. platform/ea based) and forward testing... none have really provided consistent result (there were extremely good months and followed by extremely bad ones).. usually you lose more than you win in the end... and worse yet, you've invested so much time in it to prove that something doesn't work... I needed to get through the testing quicker with more flexibility to answer questions that were running through my mind... they were subjective ones that formulated as I went.
So, one day, I decided.... to take ALL indicators out of the chart.. (yes nothing new..it's called naked trading) then all of a sudden I saw patterns in price movements rather than lines all over my chart.. at first the patters were really simple... bulls and bears.... so the next step was to start looking at those profitable patterns (like as if I was in a time machine going back into time with the future result in hand) and say to myself.. hey, if I did this then and got out then.. what would my past month's result be? This was all done manually.. on screen (drawing lines) and on excel manually typing entry and exit points/prices.... painful yes... in hindsight this was a necessary step in my maturity in FX.
Finally a thought came in my mind.... hey how bout I dump out all the daily stats i.e. O,H,L,C and just do some basic interrogation.... e.g. if a candle was followed by a bull candle how many points did it move above the previous high... then similarly on bear, inside and the engulfing candles. Then I started asking... let's see what an optimum point of entry was (this was really a whole bunch of trial and error questions proven fact or false using excel numbers)... and then further asked.. show me where my entry would have been a "fake out" movement... I then further optimized it to take as much of the "fake out" as possible. When it looked promising... then I looked at the optimum exit points first for Take Profit then second for Stop Loss. To do this again I used patterns within the numbers (not the chart)... the only way to do this was to analyze the lower time frames.. in the first instance the hourly. And so the process continued.
After three days or there abouts... I then derived the optimal entry, exit (TP & SL) at least for my style of trading. By "my style" I mean that a trading style to suit your lifestyle rather than to change your lifestyle to suit trading.
At the end of it, I had a money management ratio that may have been skewed more to the risk rather than the reward.. big no no apparently... BUT!!!! the one thing I learnt is that true risk is the frequency/probability of it becoming real. So.... to put simply... I personally defined risk not by a simple risk to reward ratio of n:n but more so the probability / frequency of profiting (take profit being taken) versus probability / frequency of losing (stop loss being taken).
Anyone share these thoughts or already have this in practice???
I have uploaded an image of my account not for bragging rights or anything like that but to provide supporting evidence that I am coming from an angle of relative success and partially, if i was the reader of this thread and not the author... I would think the author was a nut bag and felt like I wasted my time.
Anyway, thanks for taking time to read through this... and taking interest in the post. I look forward to like / open minded individuals commenting back.
Regards,
Archie Oh
This is the first "thread" I have created and have no real intention to maintain it vigorously. To put it simply, I'm throwing a line out to see whether there are fish around. I have hesitated to create this thread for over 2 years now as I was not sure what purpose it would serve... in any case, I have decided to write this thread now - purely to see if there are like minded individuals out there (at least in FF) and hopefully create a network amongst like minded individuals as trading can be a very lonely avenue/profession. Additionally, I also believe there are much more intelligent individuals out there than I am... I'm hoping that they do come to FF and see this post and network.
So that there is no pretence... here's a quick intro to this thread.
For those looking for a magic bullet or a system/strategy or looking for a coach/mentor..... don't waste your time with this thread or requesting otherwise directly from me. This thread is intended to stimulate thoughts & discussions and get input from like minded or open minded individuals.
I will not be answering any personal questions with specific to my personal finance situation but simply put.. I'm happy where I am at with my trading. I request that all responders keep their post to this thread professional and relevant.
AND NO.. I AM NOT SELLING ANYTHING or any educational service etc... AND NO... I'm not interested in being given a large capital to invest and make money along the way... quite happy with my existing financial avenues and investing my own money... so please don't ask.. (as you can tell this is not my first rodeo).
With the intro done... moving on. Here's my take/story.
There are many indicators out there... (by extension strategies that use the indicators) mostly lagging and some would say a handful of leading... I personally have not found any leading ones that has worked for me in that way.
Like all surviving traders, we've all had our battle scars (some good and some bad) I've ventured into a number theories, books, strategies, indicators etc. but the one thing I have found is that there is no single source of truth.... i.e. no magic bullet.
For those still reading to see a magic bullet in this post... here it is... "Adaptability".... markets change you must be equipped to be adaptable.. no strategy is adaptable to all market conditions all the time.. so look to be adaptable and stop looking for strategies and EAs that only make its creators wealthier (no pun intended to individuals who are in this line of business). Not saying EAs cannot be adaptable or part of one's portfolio but that would be YOUR EA not someone else's.
Moving on...
I've tried back testing (in its technological form i.e. platform/ea based) and forward testing... none have really provided consistent result (there were extremely good months and followed by extremely bad ones).. usually you lose more than you win in the end... and worse yet, you've invested so much time in it to prove that something doesn't work... I needed to get through the testing quicker with more flexibility to answer questions that were running through my mind... they were subjective ones that formulated as I went.
So, one day, I decided.... to take ALL indicators out of the chart.. (yes nothing new..it's called naked trading) then all of a sudden I saw patterns in price movements rather than lines all over my chart.. at first the patters were really simple... bulls and bears.... so the next step was to start looking at those profitable patterns (like as if I was in a time machine going back into time with the future result in hand) and say to myself.. hey, if I did this then and got out then.. what would my past month's result be? This was all done manually.. on screen (drawing lines) and on excel manually typing entry and exit points/prices.... painful yes... in hindsight this was a necessary step in my maturity in FX.
Finally a thought came in my mind.... hey how bout I dump out all the daily stats i.e. O,H,L,C and just do some basic interrogation.... e.g. if a candle was followed by a bull candle how many points did it move above the previous high... then similarly on bear, inside and the engulfing candles. Then I started asking... let's see what an optimum point of entry was (this was really a whole bunch of trial and error questions proven fact or false using excel numbers)... and then further asked.. show me where my entry would have been a "fake out" movement... I then further optimized it to take as much of the "fake out" as possible. When it looked promising... then I looked at the optimum exit points first for Take Profit then second for Stop Loss. To do this again I used patterns within the numbers (not the chart)... the only way to do this was to analyze the lower time frames.. in the first instance the hourly. And so the process continued.
After three days or there abouts... I then derived the optimal entry, exit (TP & SL) at least for my style of trading. By "my style" I mean that a trading style to suit your lifestyle rather than to change your lifestyle to suit trading.
At the end of it, I had a money management ratio that may have been skewed more to the risk rather than the reward.. big no no apparently... BUT!!!! the one thing I learnt is that true risk is the frequency/probability of it becoming real. So.... to put simply... I personally defined risk not by a simple risk to reward ratio of n:n but more so the probability / frequency of profiting (take profit being taken) versus probability / frequency of losing (stop loss being taken).
Anyone share these thoughts or already have this in practice???
I have uploaded an image of my account not for bragging rights or anything like that but to provide supporting evidence that I am coming from an angle of relative success and partially, if i was the reader of this thread and not the author... I would think the author was a nut bag and felt like I wasted my time.
Anyway, thanks for taking time to read through this... and taking interest in the post. I look forward to like / open minded individuals commenting back.
Regards,
Archie Oh