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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #4,381
  • Oct 27, 2014 1:18pm Oct 27, 2014 1:18pm
Quoting KiwiOz
And so wave 5 of 5 gets under-way. {image}
oh crapola, man
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,382
  • Oct 27, 2014 1:35pm Oct 27, 2014 1:35pm
hi KiwiOz, chonchi, and friends,

You know after I posted my charts showing the end of an ABCDE correction, I've been publishing evidence of these exchanges co-ordinating their price drops with so-called "arbitrage-bots", with bearish "spankerators" and Big-Boss "yes-sir-3-bags-full-sir" downward-bots. And they don't respond to that because they thought "proof-of-solvency" and "proof-of-reserve" would mesmerize the masses sufficiently for them to push indicators and wave counts to Fed-like stupendous wow!

So they just go ahead. They're centralized, unregulated and coordinated amongst one another right? I'm not arguing for regulation. Fuck that stupid Inside Job idea. What I am arguing for is that they show their books - arbitrage-bots included - and then we see if anyone still wants to trade with them or suddenly develops a preference for OTC without leverage.

Nothing stops any centralized exchange out there to turn MtGox on the public behind a mask of illiquidity, regulation, Occupy Hong-Kong, or critical power-failure.

If it's not on a blockchain it cannot be trusted. Full-stop. And they know it.

For example, where do they want the bottom to be? 200, 100, 10, 1, 0.1 , 0.000000001? It's up to them in this illiquid market. Where is the next top? $40 or $4000 - they know, the public doesn't.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,383
  • Oct 27, 2014 1:46pm Oct 27, 2014 1:46pm
I put this hypothetical order to the Bitstamp API via OTC a while ago:

[14:01] | ;;market buy 50000
[14:01] | Bitstamp | This order would exceed the size of the order book. You would buy 19,434.758 bitcoins, for a total of 19,191,083.3531 USD and take the price to 99,999.9900.


OK, so let's play gentle even if we have $20mil (and many have more) to play rough:

[14:07] | ;;market buy 10000
[14:07] | Bitstamp | A market order to buy 10,000 bitcoins right now would take 6,213,164.9471 USD and would take the last price up to 660.8200 USD, resulting in an average price of 621.3165 USD/BTC.


This is not something I discovered. Guys on OTC do these kind of calculations for fun all day long...

When price was near $400 on the way down I was watching the BitFinex orderbook and it had 10,000 BTC (see the second example above) in buy orders between $400 and $300, yet price sliced down through them without any candles reacting green even in the 5min charts - how is this possible? In every single exchange chart simultaneously?

Like I say, I wasn't gasping by my lonesome - OTC were howling with laughter at the brazen display by the exchanges.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,384
  • Oct 27, 2014 6:34pm Oct 27, 2014 6:34pm
Quoting venzen
I put this hypothetical order to the Bitstamp API via OTC a while ago: [14:01] | ;;market buy 50000 [14:01] | Bitstamp | This order would exceed the size of the order book. You would buy 19,434.758 bitcoins, for a total of 19,191,083.3531 USD and take the price to 99,999.9900. OK, so let's play gentle even if we have $20mil (and many have more) to play rough: [14:07] | ;;market buy 10000 [14:07] | Bitstamp | A market order to buy 10,000 bitcoins right now would take 6,213,164.9471 USD and would take the last price up to 660.8200 USD, resulting in...
Hi venzen. I think the bitcoin markets are manipulated more than any other. Sad but true. My thinking is still that bitcoin is too pricey for the average Joe Blow.
SO. If that is also the thinking of the manipulators, the price has to come down to parity for the average you n me to to get interested & start using Bitcoin as another currency. Although I hate manipulation, I hope I am right so I can use Bitcoin as an every day currency. Just think if Bitcoin did come down to parity. I bet populations all over the world would start using if for no other reason than
to thumb their noses at the bloody banks & government red tape.
Gonna take time & perseverance. Whether Bicoin ultimately was just a pump n dump remains to be seen.

I'm still seeing under 200
Money Makes Money
  • #4,385
  • Oct 28, 2014 5:09am Oct 28, 2014 5:09am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Hi venzen. I think the bitcoin markets are manipulated more than any other. Sad but true. My thinking is still that bitcoin is too pricey for the average Joe Blow. SO. If that is also the thinking of the manipulators, the price has to come down to parity for the average you n me to to get interested & start using Bitcoin as another currency. Although I hate manipulation, I hope I am right so I can use Bitcoin as an every day currency. Just think if Bitcoin did come down to parity. I bet populations all over the world would start using if...
Hello to all here....Agree 100% with this statement, and under 100 too.....it will be nice thought ....
The Chonchy
  • #4,386
  • Oct 28, 2014 5:42am Oct 28, 2014 5:42am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Hi venzen. I think the bitcoin markets are manipulated more than any other. Sad but true. My thinking is still that bitcoin is too pricey for the average Joe Blow. SO. If that is also the thinking of the manipulators, the price has to come down to parity for the average you n me to to get interested & start using Bitcoin as another currency. Although I hate manipulation, I hope I am right so I can use Bitcoin as an every day currency. Just think if Bitcoin did come down to parity. I bet populations all over the world would start using if...
Hey Kiwi, one thing I wanted to comment on was the idea that BTC not being at parity being a big obstacle to adoption. Not sure that is so really, and if it is its an easy one to get around: I think once people understand you dont need to 'buy a whole coin at a time' or you can just use it as a transmission system (like paypal) or if we adopt one of the 'milibit' naming conventions (so we dont talk in terms of whole bitcoins but sub divisions that are closer to parity value) then I think that it can be overcome without the actual value being lower. So more education is needed on this than any change on the BTC side, imho. Hope that makes sense
  • #4,387
  • Oct 28, 2014 6:17am Oct 28, 2014 6:17am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} Hello to all here....Agree 100% with this statement, and under 100 too.....it will be nice thought ....
Hi chonchy. Good to see your still around.
Money Makes Money
  • #4,388
  • Oct 28, 2014 6:20am Oct 28, 2014 6:20am
Quoting gjgjg
{quote} Hey Kiwi, one thing I wanted to comment on was the idea that BTC not being at parity being a big obstacle to adoption. Not sure that is so really, and if it is its an easy one to get around: I think once people understand you dont need to 'buy a whole coin at a time' or you can just use it as a transmission system (like paypal) or if we adopt one of the 'milibit' naming conventions (so we dont talk in terms of whole bitcoins but sub divisions that are closer to parity value) then I think that it can be overcome without the actual value being...
Hi gigig. Education is the key word. But it will take a lot to convince people to buy bitcoins at present prices, whole or partial. I know. I'm one of the people. Meantime I'm making 10 times the profit by trading it both ways.
Money Makes Money
  • #4,389
  • Oct 28, 2014 8:01pm Oct 28, 2014 8:01pm
Quoting chonchy
{quote} Hello to all here....Agree 100% with this statement, and under 100 too.....it will be nice thought ....
Hi chonchi, please drop us your MA analysis.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,390
  • Oct 29, 2014 12:47am Oct 29, 2014 12:47am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Hi chonchy. Good to see your still around.
.......always, and always missing you guys here, is lady-luck still around?
The Chonchy
  • #4,391
  • Oct 29, 2014 12:50am Oct 29, 2014 12:50am
Quoting venzen
hi KiwiOz, chonchi, and friends, You know after I posted my charts showing the end of an ABCDE correction, I've been publishing evidence of these exchanges co-ordinating their price drops with so-called "arbitrage-bots", with bearish "spankerators" and Big-Boss "yes-sir-3-bags-full-sir" downward-bots. And they don't respond to that because they thought "proof-of-solvency" and "proof-of-reserve" would mesmerize the masses sufficiently for them to push indicators and wave counts to Fed-like stupendous wow! So they just go ahead. They're centralized,...
...Agree but yeah it needs to be deal with care, otherwise they slap us with more regulation like you said, bastards....
The Chonchy
  • #4,392
  • Edited 1:20am Oct 29, 2014 1:04am | Edited 1:20am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Hi chonchi, please drop us your MA analysis.
venzen I lost the login details of the BTC-e acc and I don't know where I put it, I will look for it and come back, I'm not trading that often anymore, I'm doing bathrooms and the bikes...but always like to pass by and say hello to my friends......
The Chonchy
  • #4,393
  • Oct 29, 2014 12:46pm Oct 29, 2014 12:46pm
Quoting chonchy
{quote} venzen I lost the login details of the BTC-e acc and I don't know where I put it, I will look for it and come back, I'm not trading that often anymore, I'm doing bathrooms and the bikes...but always like to pass by and say hello to my friends......
chonchi, no sweat, we can look at the chart some other time. Just drop by whenever you have time.

lady_luck has moved countries and it's a long time since we saw her, but she'll be back, I'm sure.

Here's a composite chart of the S&P500 (black), Gold(purple) and Bitcoin(yellow) about an hour and 40mins after the Fed statement (no more QE, considerable low rates for considerable time):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Selection_508.png Size: 41 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,394
  • Oct 31, 2014 9:20am Oct 31, 2014 9:20am
but the number of transaction increasingly

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 500861transaction.png Size: 123 KB
  • #4,395
  • Nov 2, 2014 5:52pm Nov 2, 2014 5:52pm
Buying if it goes under $300
  • #4,396
  • Nov 5, 2014 8:01am Nov 5, 2014 8:01am
may be that the price reacts to the meeting of central banks on Friday?

What will they try ?
  • #4,397
  • Nov 7, 2014 11:43am Nov 7, 2014 11:43am
Quoting venzen
{quote} chonchi, no sweat, we can look at the chart some other time. Just drop by whenever you have time. lady_luck has moved countries and it's a long time since we saw her, but she'll be back, I'm sure. Here's a composite chart of the S&P500 (black), Gold(purple) and Bitcoin(yellow) about an hour and 40mins after the Fed statement (no more QE, considerable low rates for considerable time): {image}
Inserted Video
The Chonchy
  • #4,398
  • Nov 13, 2014 1:00am Nov 13, 2014 1:00am
Still waiting 205 ?

you're not afraid to miss the train?
  • #4,399
  • Nov 13, 2014 1:22am Nov 13, 2014 1:22am
Quoting tostaky06
Still waiting 205 ? you're not afraid to miss the train?
YEP Twas just a retracement.
Money Makes Money
  • #4,400
  • Nov 17, 2014 10:25am Nov 17, 2014 10:25am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} YEP Twas just a retracement.
The US Marshals Service (USMS) has announced that it will auction off 50,000 bitcoins, worth roughly $20m ... http://www.coindesk.com/us-marshals-...ross-ulbricht/

how deep can BTC sink? 266??
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