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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #4,341
  • Sep 10, 2014 8:46am Sep 10, 2014 8:46am
Quoting chonchy
I want one of this..... http://us6.campaign-archive1.com/?u=...4&e=f39c419c50 Do you guys have a better deal
I think the mining game is getting to the farm sized operations only now (in order to be profitable), are you looking for one to use just individually?
Ive also heard lots of bad things about BFL, they do manage to get units out but many have been trying to get refunds for what ever reasons and are getting nowhere...
my understanding (ive not been paying attention to mining for months now though so i couldbe out dated) is that KnC are best around in terms of machines and reliability - but they are expensive...
  • #4,342
  • Sep 11, 2014 11:50pm Sep 11, 2014 11:50pm
Quoting gjgjg
{quote} I think the mining game is getting to the farm sized operations only now (in order to be profitable), are you looking for one to use just individually? Ive also heard lots of bad things about BFL, they do manage to get units out but many have been trying to get refunds for what ever reasons and are getting nowhere... my understanding (ive not been paying attention to mining for months now though so i couldbe out dated) is that KnC are best around in terms of machines and reliability - but they are expensive...
Thanks a lot gjgjg, for the update, I also thing the mining is for the big gamers, thanks for all, good luck trading....Hello to all....
The Chonchy
  • #4,343
  • Sep 11, 2014 11:55pm Sep 11, 2014 11:55pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Yo Chonchy. Good to see you are still with us...
....Always pass by here, look at your awesome charts, love the CCI, good luck to all, hello to venzen, lady-luck, smartypants, all..
The Chonchy
  • #4,344
  • Sep 13, 2014 1:14pm Sep 13, 2014 1:14pm
Hey guys! Good to see the thread alive. Dogecoin is doing well now by the way. The hardfork over to AuxWow (AuxPOW) went nicely. Hashrate is going to the moon.
BTC FTW
  • #4,345
  • Sep 13, 2014 2:36pm Sep 13, 2014 2:36pm
Hi, I just joined this discussion and see good one
Its true that the hardfork over to AuxWow went nicely but this is happened always . So we have to care off these things when these goes on the line and when are out the line
  • #4,346
  • Edited 4:45am Sep 15, 2014 3:40am | Edited 4:45am
Greetings to the thread,

I've been absent, like most of you, waiting for the Bitcoin market to show its hand. Range has narrowed to almost 2 weeks of sideways action between $460 and $490 (Stamp and Finex).

I believe the rest of you also have a sense that we're at the start of a volatile period in the global markets and Bitcoin has been doing it's contraction routine below the 200MA (daily and H4) which heralds a breakout to the upside.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It may still be some days (or max weeks) away and one cannot be sure that it's going straight up (and how far), but it can only go up from the ground floor, right? Selling pressure has fizzled out and the daily and H4 charts show moving averages in the same pre-launch configuration as previous rally starts. The Bitcoin institutional players are showing their investors pictures of BTCUSD at the "lower end" of its historic channel and - except for them perhaps seeking one more sneaky low - there is not much that can hinder an uptrend to at least $550 followed by $590 and then $680.

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The major upside resistance seems to be at $890 and I'm going to get off the train up there.

Looking at the historic charts in 2012, it seems the rally could be volatile to start but gradual to $890. I provide this great chart by TradingView user ronfkingswanson for reference - his PA projection (back in Feb) was wrong, but his sense of corrective structure and wave context was correct IMO:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTCUSD_projection_ronfkingswanson.png Size: 245 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,347
  • Edited 4:17am Sep 15, 2014 4:04am | Edited 4:17am
chonchy, KO, L_L, smartypants, Kingsway, Ramses, gjgjg - glad to see you're all still here!

mrjohnn, welcome.

chonchy, what are your MAs saying at the H4 and Daily?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,348
  • Edited 4:19am Sep 15, 2014 4:08am | Edited 4:19am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} No mate. It's just that although bitcoin is not boring, but trading bitcoin is. Only way to trade it is to hold your trade until it is stopped out... Cheers. {image} {image}
KiwiOz, i'm not saying "Never" - more lows can certainly happen - but I believe that reversal to the upside is already underway. Looking at the historical corrections, there are many instances where the decline low did not reach the last downside target. So, I don't expect it will go below $400 this time - if, indeed, we havent already seen the last of the lows. Whatchoo think?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,349
  • Sep 15, 2014 4:44am Sep 15, 2014 4:44am
Quoting venzen
{quote} KiwiOz, i'm not saying "Never" - more lows can certainly happen - but I believe that reversal to the upside is already underway. Looking at the historical corrections, there are many instances where the decline low did not reach the last downside target. So, I don't expect it will go below $400 this time - if, indeed, we havent already seen the last of the lows. Whatchoo think?
Hi venzen. Good to see you on the thread. I do keep up with your great articles on CryptoCoinNews.
As for bitcoin targets. you could well be right that bitcoin has bottomed out. One would like to think that if it was to tank into oblivion it would have done so by now.
I have 2 immediate targets... 540 & 430. But which came first.?? The chicken or the egg.??
A concerted move North & I will be targeting 770. If it tanks then 330 could be followed by 220..??????????????
I guess we just have to wait with baited breath for the next move.
Money Makes Money
  • #4,350
  • Sep 15, 2014 6:21am Sep 15, 2014 6:21am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Hi venzen. Good to see you on the thread. I do keep up with your great articles on CryptoCoinNews. As for bitcoin targets. you could well be right that bitcoin has bottomed out. One would like to think that if it was to tank into oblivion it would have done so by now. I have 2 immediate targets... 540 & 430. But which came first.?? The chicken or the egg.?? A concerted move North & I will be targeting 770. If it tanks then 330 could be followed by 220..?????????????? I guess we just have to wait with baited breath for the next move.
Hi KO,

You've probably seen me touting $420 and $550 in analysis. The $10 difference in our targets must be the slight variation between Bitstamp and BTC-e PA...

Those downside targets ($330 and $220) would be so great to get in at a discount - I've had orders (calculated to exactly the right size and price) waiting all the way down to $160 for almost 2 months and PA is just not giving me that loving feeling! As you say, there had been plenty of opportunities to do so and the market didn't take them. Now PA is starting to look different from the way it does during the previous "consolidate-dip-consolidate-dip" cycles.

Today, there had been a few instances when spread went to almost $5 on Bitfinex but without any direction change, which gives me the idea that a big move is brewing...

I guess we'll all be seeing more of one another once price takes a direction, altho' with the economic calendar this week, there are going to be plenty of charts to trade in the coming days!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,351
  • Sep 15, 2014 6:29am Sep 15, 2014 6:29am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Hi KO, You've probably seen me touting $420 and $550 in analysis. The $10 difference in our targets must be the slight variation between Bitstamp and BTC-e PA... Those downside targets ($330 and $220) would be so great to get in at a discount - I've had orders (calculated to exactly the right size and price) waiting all the way down to $160 for almost 2 months and PA is just not giving me that loving feeling! As you say, there had been plenty of opportunities to do so and the market didn't take them. Now PA is starting to look different...
Here's hoping Scotland will declare independence and Bitcoin as its new currency!

Good to see you back Venzen, nice analysis as always
  • #4,352
  • Sep 15, 2014 7:50am Sep 15, 2014 7:50am
look like everybody is reading you, so if you say it will up, more chance to see that ... you are above my understanding Venzen, did you start to buy ?
  • #4,353
  • Sep 15, 2014 8:53am Sep 15, 2014 8:53am
Quoting gjgjg
{quote} Here's hoping Scotland will declare independence and Bitcoin as its new currency! Good to see you back Venzen, nice analysis as always
Thanks for the complement, gjgjg - you know it's esoteric market forces choosing to work through me, and not my own doing, right?

I've got some Scottish friends who'd love that (Bitcoin national currency) but there are too few whiskey shops that accept BTC to make it of any practical use!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,354
  • Sep 15, 2014 9:06am Sep 15, 2014 9:06am
Quoting tostaky06
look like everybody is reading you, so if you say it will up, more chance to see that ... you are above my understanding Venzen, did you start to buy ?
tostaky06, the readership is big and growing... eventually, I'm going to have to come clean that I'm actually posting KiwiOz's analysis - just modified to Fib extensions !

I did start building a position in late August in the $490s...

Thing with Bitcoin is, when it's going sideways it's price action is very predictable because of the 1.618 extension target preference - even so during decline, but when it rallies... it's easy to completely lose track of where price is and what it's going to do next. That's when writing analysis has me waking up in a cold sweat!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,355
  • Sep 15, 2014 10:37am Sep 15, 2014 10:37am
I read some analyzes that explain that the month of setptembre is the worst in trading (can't post it, it s in french).
Do you think we will have a bottom at the end of month like last year, and then the uptrend ?
  • #4,356
  • Sep 15, 2014 7:11pm Sep 15, 2014 7:11pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} tostaky06, the readership is big and growing... eventually, I'm going to have to come clean that I'm actually posting KiwiOz's analysis - just modified to Fib extensions ! I did start building a position in late August in the $490s... Thing with Bitcoin is, when it's going sideways it's price action is very predictable because of the 1.618 extension target preference - even so during decline, but when it rallies... it's easy to completely lose track of where price is and what it's going to do next. That's when writing analysis has me waking...
Money Makes Money
  • #4,357
  • Sep 16, 2014 9:14am Sep 16, 2014 9:14am
Nice to see you all back, it seems summer is almost over and we're all back trading, i've been in the altcoin scene lately (like smartypants, mainly buying low)
Let's see if volatility comes back to BTC/USD, it's getting more and more accepted everywhere. That i see as another reason why BTC doesn't get higher in price, all these bussinesses selling it to cash fiat so they can pay the bills.

Well let's see how it goes, happy to read you again and happy trading y'all!




*20 minutes ago someone just sold over 300 BTC at 460$ (BTC-E)
  • #4,358
  • Sep 19, 2014 2:42am Sep 19, 2014 2:42am
Gunna be away in the caravan for a while. Will have a couple of long term trade going....Bitcoin heading for the 205 target. Will seriously think of buying when it gets there... catch up on FF in a month or 3... trade well Y'all.
Money Makes Money
  • #4,359
  • Sep 19, 2014 4:52am Sep 19, 2014 4:52am
Quoting KiwiOz
Gunna be away in the caravan for a while. Will have a couple of long term trade going....Bitcoin heading for the 205 target. Will seriously think of buying when it gets there... catch up on FF in a month or 3... trade well Y'all.
Have a good one! Your mag line analysis will be missed, and hopefully when you get back we'll have been through $205 on the way to $xx,000!
  • #4,360
  • Sep 21, 2014 11:50am Sep 21, 2014 11:50am
Quoting KiwiOz
Gunna be away in the caravan for a while. Will have a couple of long term trade going....Bitcoin heading for the 205 target. Will seriously think of buying when it gets there... catch up on FF in a month or 3... trade well Y'all.
Well, KiwiOz, enjoy the time away.

I just found EW confirmation today of that $205 target - why I didn't see it before I dunno (maybe i saw but didn't want to believe, eh?)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Here's the Mt.Gox history that shows that wave I structure:

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cryptocurrency everytime
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