Bitcoin technical analysis

I have this sense of nervousness around the traders last few days, I think ppl are expecting a rally but see it sliding down, buyers keep retreating inch by inch, but the high 500s / low 600 buyers are more or less waiting patiently. Maybe im projecting myself a bit lol

Time will tell I guess. If Bitcoin earns safe-haven characteristics maybe it will get there. Remember MTGox still has Bitcoins and it's up to Japan how compensate the traders. If those Bitcoins will be liquidated into US Dollars... You can imagine what will happen to Bitcoin.

Maybe all bidders who missed the auction will buy it ... buyers and sellers so what ? Should always be like that ...
Thx Dell, but it's still too quiet ...

Morning all,

It seems we're in the next phase of advance. To my eyes, the sideways structure of the last few weeks has the pattern characteristics of a "lady_luck-One-Two"... slowly descending sideways while flattening out and then an imperceptible change of trend at the moment when most market players lose hope and start saying: "I'm turning bearish".

Of course, I could be wrong in this assessment. I notice that when I call direction right, I'm often out by one wave - the last move before reversal. Anyhow, here's a closeup of the previous pattern from May (Bitstamp chart) when price action flattened out prior to a blast upwards:



The current pattern (although not appearing as flat in this timeframe) is similar and the wave structure corresponds (if the EW count is correct):



It seems unlikely that a blast up will occur just yet, because price has not launched yet, but is instead choosing a gradual rise that should curve upwards as trend accelerates. The main factor implying a gradual rise is the large amount of cynical sell orders waiting above in most exchanges:

Bitfinex:



BTC-China:



As usually happens in the cases when large amounts of orders stand in the way of a steady advance, they will just get eaten through and I hope those obstructive traders get some sense and clear them instead!

BTW, I have not posted for a while because I was busy coding the app featured in the screenshots above. That's the old MtGox trading app I used, but now adapted for the RESTful APIs offered by Bitfinex, BTC-China and BTC-e.

MtGox used to offer a streaming API and I had to adapt the application to fire off its own data calls (instead of constantly receiving trade, order and price info via WebSocket). In a sense this is better because it's cleaner from the point of view of knowing exactly what market data you have (and when it was last valid), as well as being more economical on my wafer thin bandwidth out here. The data I collect and view (as per the screenshot below) is mostly market depth info. Not sure how useful this is, but since its freely available I just grab it. The main benefit of having a custom app for trading is that one can specifically select the data you want, and view it in a way that makes most sense to you. I have added code that alerts me to changes in spread, price velocity and depth changes (such as the appearance of abnormally large orders). So I can work on other stuff and get notified of market events via alert sounds - instead of watching the charts endlessly - and losing the will to live during quiet times such as we just had.

I can also sleep without having to keep one eye on the chart - just hope my neighbors don't get mad at the sonar ping sound the app emits every time market orders change!

Somehow ForexFactory is not allowing me to edit the last post so i'll repost the chart and update here:

The comment in the MACD indicator field, "this peak cleared the path for advance" should really say: the MACD peak created by the move (from the most recent low to $627) has clear the path for advance to $660.

Why? Because the next higher peak is on the far left, which is the peak formed by the previous high at $660, so MACD can rise all the way up there without manifesting any divergence. Divergence causes reaction (reversal), but until it manifests, price is free to run.

Bitstamp H1:

(still cannot edit)... I have to correct another statement in the post: not the MACD peak on the "far left" but the "middle left"

Not sure why I think so, but the fact that Dell has just started accepting Bitcoin payments, could be a watershed moment with regards to the public mind's notion of "mainstream acceptance".
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/...oin/2014/07/18

Also, although backing cryptocurrency with Gold makes about as much sense as backing silver with copper, this Gold-backed crypptocurrency, Independence Coin, is going to make waves, I believe, and get lots of interest. Given the persistence of the belief that Gold somehow has intrinsic value, the INNcoin concept is interesting - as an instrument for investment - and I think it will draw in a lot of newcomers from the trading and investment world.
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/...ree/2014/07/18

The above two events are highly significant in the context of "mainstream adoption" and could be pivotal to immediate trend in the coming days.

so are we ready to go to the moon........nice analysis venzen...like always.....

Hi all, have been very (very) busy trading altcoins; there is an amazing amount of volatility in the alt market. I am pumping charts out mostly on my twitter, @BlockchainParty feel free to follow. Vericoin and cloakcoin look most promising now, next to bitcoin of course happy trading

Thanks for the tips Ramses, I tried to grab a couple of pump and dumps on the alt coin scene but gave up, too many to follow and the charts were always rubbish (I mean the crypsty chart. You think the above two are in for a pump? Do you have a particular system to catch them before they do? Or are you advocating long term?
Cheers

No more 525 and less ?
Everytime i want to shove, everybody turns into bull ... such a pain in the ass ...

We should know soon, breakout coming and I'd say it will be substantial.

Note this is week 34 since the last peak (usually we see ~33 week cycle)
https://www.flickr.com/photos/680428...57645251151818

The major moves are few & far between but they are quite dramatic when they happen..

So, which target to buy before the storm ?

Hope everyone had that range which clearly broke south:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BtQBxv1CAAA0ceP.png

Strong buy opporuntiy now in one of the alts, Vericoin:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BtVTl1tCIAAv4xH.png

Thanks but i don"t care about all altcoin ... it s bitcoin thread, not altcoin ... should make a another thread for that obv, it may exist, i don"t know ... but i am focus only on bitcoin.

If you are referring to a storm to the North I think you will be waiting a long time...

Maybe, let s see, I can afford to lose this money, but I can not lose hope in a better financial system.
We will see ...

Big move by Equador to not only ban BTC but also set up a state controlled crypto - I guess this is how states will benefit from the tech but still get their % and control... hoping it doesnt catch on
http://www.coindesk.com/ecuador-bans...islative-vote/

will be interesting to see how they will control the creation of it. if its mining, someone could hack in and pump and dump lol

Hi Ramses, good to see you again!

Indeed, the altcoin market is hopping with volatility. Vericoin is a mover for sure - noticing the name more and more. Never heard of cloakcoin and will check it out...

Good Luck and don't be scarce.