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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #4,201
  • Jun 29, 2014 9:33pm Jun 29, 2014 9:33pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} KO, Agreed - that magnetic line looks like a foregone conclusion dunnit? Also, the A-B on my previous chart demands a C wave down... but I'm not betting on it in case we see a taper to the right - price just flattening out toward that same rising trendline that launched the rally before.... But then again, the auction result is bound to cause some reaction, so a gradual taper over days or weeks is unlikely... phew, for my own trade direction here - i don't know
Yeah. I would wait for a break of the purple lines to trade. (In either direction)
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  • #4,202
  • Jun 29, 2014 11:45pm Jun 29, 2014 11:45pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Yeah. I would wait for a break of the purple lines to trade. (In either direction) {image}
I'm reminded of the 4th of April last year when the market anticipated the Bank of Japan announcement of several trillion Yen's worth of stimulus. Everyone knew the date and the time and how much. Everyone knew the implications and the longterm effects. The market had been slowly declining (from a local high) for the month leading into the event. At the moment of confirmation, the market spiked up, slammed to a new local low and then steadily accellerated into an advance that lasted for 3 days.

This is very different. As gjgjg remarked earlier, these coins will probably not see an exchange for some weeks or months. These are not new coins or "stimulus" in any way, but psychologically, the combination of SR, the authorities and the anticipation present a catalyst. Chart analysis weighs toward direction being down, but those initial market swings at the time of announcement won't be the indicators of the eventual true direction.

I'd expect a drop and decline, but a stupendous rally or a few spikes settling around $600 can't be ruled out either. To my mind Bitcoin is saturated - at the plateau following several speculative bullruns - if anything it may be overpriced by a few hundred dollars. So, whatever follows will be interesting, because if there is one thing the market consensus demands its another rally - but as we know the market - "must have won't get".
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,203
  • Jun 30, 2014 1:08am Jun 30, 2014 1:08am
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/...ion/2014/06/30

Is this going to be a "Pump n Dump"..??
Money Makes Money
  • #4,204
  • Jun 30, 2014 2:36am Jun 30, 2014 2:36am
no printed bitcoin for everybody ? so supply and demand ? We can't remember this time since we use dollar ...
  • #4,205
  • Jun 30, 2014 3:00am Jun 30, 2014 3:00am
Quoting venzen
{quote} ... To my mind Bitcoin is saturated - at the plateau following several speculative bullruns - if anything it may be overpriced by a few hundred dollars. So, whatever follows will be interesting, because if there is one thing the market consensus demands its another rally - but as we know the market - "must have won't get".
I think you could be right that fiat buyers have saturated the market to a degree, but I also think this chap is right: that BTC are being bought at the moment by a rotation from other coins, mainly LTC (poor LTC ).

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/sta...38325517127680



Hopefully we'll get the real auction news soon, and not speculation & hearsay. The potential for manipulation is pretty big today without it (as KO's post mentions), but the jump over 630 was encouraging anyway! The overall amount of buyers seems larger than sellers right now, many lurking in the low 500s
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  • #4,206
  • Jun 30, 2014 5:31am Jun 30, 2014 5:31am
Quoting gjgjg
The potential for manipulation is pretty big today without it (as KO's post mentions), but the jump over 630 was encouraging anyway!
The jump above 600 was a surprise - i was watching the Bitfinex orderbook at the time and the move up cut through some pretty big orders (totalling more than 500BTC) so there was some determination and the market quickly showed its willingness to follow. One would assume the same is true for the opposite direction too - if price starts falling then players will just pile in...

Somehow, though, the PA looks impulsive to the upside. There is no divergence in momentum indicators (RSI and MACD for me) so more upside should follow. Also, this wave up looks similar to the wave that Gold has been tracing out during June and there too more upside seems likely (judging by the MACD and only 3 waves up). Of course something else could be going on and PA is setting up for a collossal drop or whimpering sideways, but the market is acting excitable and usually that means stampede...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,207
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:04am Jun 30, 2014 9:04am
Quoting lady_luck
Good morning everybody Nice charts KO, and interesting perspectives. It's exactly what I had in mind on my BTC chart from last week, and market still hasn't decided. I guess this is the boring part of June Venzen and I were mentioning. I had a question, does 570 for bitstamp has any significance on your chart ? To me it's where the difference between the two options you presented will be made. Venzen, you have some very good points about EW and the auction. Your comment about EW made me think of emptymind, it always surprised me how he picks...
lady_luck,

Thanks for your words.

As for the diamond pattern its not one that i know how to trade, but I think it has something to do with price going up like now.

I'd imagine that traders and investors will be getting into the market with long positions in anticipation of a favourable outcome with the auction - whatever "favourable" means. Having said that, there will surely come a moment (hours) before the auction when people will start getting nervous and start closing positions. Maybe that has already started, but from the indicators it seems more upside can be expected.

Watching the Bitfinex orderbook today at http://www.bfxdata.com/orderbooks/btcusd.php has been interesting... massive orders of 150-300BTC are put in the path of the advance and market orders just pushed right through them. Right now I see some large orders at 640 (500BTC), 660 (800BTC) and 677 (1100BTC). Not sure if those traders will hold their nerve as the advance moves toward them.

edit: an order of 500BTC just showed up at 620 (with price currently at 619) Lets see
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,208
  • Edited 3:02pm Jun 30, 2014 2:48pm | Edited 3:02pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} The jump above 600 was a surprise - i was watching the Bitfinex orderbook at the time and the move up cut through some pretty big orders (totalling more than 500BTC) so there was some determination and the market quickly showed its willingness to follow. One would assume the same is true for the opposite direction too - if price starts falling then players will just pile in... Somehow, though, the PA looks impulsive to the upside. There is no divergence in momentum indicators (RSI and MACD for me) so more upside should follow. Also, this...
Indeed i saw a 300btc sell order go through on stamp around 600e and it cut through it like it was a buy order and the price went on up. great result but doesnt fit quite right... could be being over cautious.

Also, some stats from the auction are:
42 bidders, 186 bids, 48k BTCs worth of bids for 29k BTCs

I suspect from these numbers one could take an educated guess about the amount per btc, right? maybe someone with a mind for arithmetic can take a look but it seems to me that if 186 bids were made by 42 ppl thats 4~5 bids per person, or each coin had 1.5~ bids each on avg... in that case, 48k / 1.5 would be 32k = 3k more than 29k, so each coin was won at 10% more than market... i made a mistake somewhere in there right? :nerd:lol

http://newsbtc.com/2014/06/30/us-mar...tcoin-auction/

edit: also more good news
https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/sta...92873855299584
  • #4,209
  • Jun 30, 2014 3:32pm Jun 30, 2014 3:32pm
France are back in the World Cup quarterfinals : obv bitcoin should celebrate that
  • #4,210
  • Edited 8:59pm Jun 30, 2014 6:14pm | Edited 8:59pm
Well, this has turned out to be an underwhelming non-event....

No-one bothered to ascertain if the auction results would be made public - which it is now clear - is something the USMS never does. So, yes, the announcement was made, but only to the participants. And if I was a private auction winner I'd want to maintain the privacy for business intelligence reasons... so, erm, yeah... back to bed.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,211
  • Jun 30, 2014 7:24pm Jun 30, 2014 7:24pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} KO, Agreed - that magnetic line looks like a foregone conclusion dunnit? Also, the A-B on my previous chart demands a C wave down... but I'm not betting on it in case we see a taper to the right - price just flattening out toward that same rising trendline that launched the rally before.... But then again, the auction result is bound to cause some reaction, so a gradual taper over days or weeks is unlikely... phew, for my own trade direction here - i don't know
just in case you guys don't know........if you do, dismiss me.........

the Obama law goes into effect the first of july.....


Inserted Video


So gold and silver may go up, and BTC of course.........

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/gold-...3#.U7H-Eo1OV8Q
The Chonchy
  • #4,212
  • Jun 30, 2014 7:25pm Jun 30, 2014 7:25pm
Quoting venzen
Well, this has turned out to be an underwhelming non-event.... No-one bothered to ascertain if the auction results would be made public - which it is now clear - is something the USMC never does. So, yes, the announcement was made, but only to the participants. And if I was a private auction winner I'd want to maintain the privacy for business intelligence reasons... so, erm, yeah... back to bed.
hello to you and to lady and Ko and all the gang, sorry for my absentee, working hard for the money.......be back soon
The Chonchy
  • #4,213
  • Jun 30, 2014 8:20pm Jun 30, 2014 8:20pm
Quoting chonchy
{quote}just in case you guys don't know........if you do, dismiss me......... the Obama law goes into effect the first of july..... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hTIoSEnk5Q So gold and silver may go up, and BTC of course......... http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/gold-...3#.U7H-Eo1OV8Q
Thanks chonchy. I agree with him..
Hey give up on the work mate. In case you don't know it. WORK is a four letter word. So stop using it...
Money Makes Money
  • #4,214
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:04pm Jun 30, 2014 9:04pm
Quoting chonchy
{quote} hello to you and to lady and Ko and all the gang, sorry for my absentee, working hard for the money.......be back soon
Hi chonchy, thanks for dropping by. Good to see you and good luck with w*rk. Earn some dollars and come join us trading the BTC. (they say this thing is going to the M***n but we're still waiting!)
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,215
  • Jul 1, 2014 11:27pm Jul 1, 2014 11:27pm
Just as much selling action today as there was buying action yesterday.
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  • #4,216
  • Jul 2, 2014 12:55am Jul 2, 2014 12:55am
Quoting KiwiOz
Just as much selling action today as there was buying action yesterday.
Hi KO,

Yeah, and that one bidder must have paid well over market price to beat all the other well-monied contenders, but i'm wondering if the market had not risen above that bid level already... and will we ever know
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,217
  • Jul 2, 2014 2:22am Jul 2, 2014 2:22am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Hi KO, Yeah, and that one bidder must have paid well over market price to beat all the other well-monied contenders, but i'm wondering if the market had not risen above that bid level already... and will we ever know
Wow. I just got in to read that. Hope he ca afford a temporary big loss....
Money Makes Money
  • #4,218
  • Jul 2, 2014 2:25am Jul 2, 2014 2:25am
Interesting that price did not reach the yellow target. Perhaps it will after a good retrace..
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  • #4,219
  • Jul 2, 2014 2:43am Jul 2, 2014 2:43am
Quoting tostaky06
no printed bitcoin for everybody ? so supply and demand ? We can't remember this time since we use dollar ...
http://www.coindesk.com/us-marshals-...road-bitcoins/
So fuckin right dude, i love you, you re so insame and outrageously right ...
  • #4,220
  • Jul 2, 2014 3:05am Jul 2, 2014 3:05am
Quoting tostaky06
{quote} http://www.coindesk.com/us-marshals-...road-bitcoins/ So fuckin right dude, i love you, you re so insame and outrageously right ...
Insane yes but not always right....
Money Makes Money
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