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Bitcoin Analysis 22 replies

Bitcoin-Family math and technical analysis 20 replies

Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis Or Graph Analysis? 28 replies

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Bitcoin technical analysis

Quoting dswk
{quote} .... Bitcoin Price Falls Below $600 as US Government Prepares for 30,000 BTC Selloff (from silkroad 1.0 seizure...). The sale is expected to be held on 27th June from 6 am to 6 pm EST. set you agenda/watches {image}
Must remember to register as a buyer....
Shit Happens
you mean 465 or 645 ?
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} This chart has more of a bullish bias at the moment. {image} For I, 950 is unlikely but not to be excluded. So is 480 for II.
Hello,
This PA was a perfect fit in the channel. May be 5 of C still to come.
To me, still on track for a new high (despite silkroad ).
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This SR wallet is empty... Bitcoin Address 1FfmbHfnpaZjKFvyi1okTjJJusN455paPH

... perhaps they "transferred" the coins out of that wallet, and if the coins have only been sent to another address, then no exchange was involved... I used the "gribble" calculator in the #bitcoin IRC channel to calculate that a simultaneous sell of all 144,000 29,000 coins will cause an approximate $200 drop in price. However, that doesn't seem the best strategy at these low prices (or ever) - trickle feeding them into the market would be better, right?

Considering it's an auction sale then it could happen as an exchange of cash for a paper wallet - meaning the new owner must still push the 144,000 29,000 coins through an exchange as a "Sell" at some indeterminate time (or perhaps never).

My hypothesis is that a private institution could have bought the entire lot and will put them up as collateral for a "Digital Currency" ETF.

I guess all this will be public information soon.

edit: as outlined in the link posted by lady_luck, the total SR coins are 29,000 and not 144,000 (to which the Dread Pirate holds deed and I guess he's not saying the password!)
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting venzen
This SR wallet is empty... Bitcoin Address 1FfmbHfnpaZjKFvyi1okTjJJusN455paPH ... perhaps they "transferred" the coins out of that wallet, and if the coins have only been sent to another address, then no exchange was involved... I used the "gribble" calculator in the #bitcoin IRC channel to calculate that a simultaneous sell of all 144,000 coins will cause an approximate $200 drop in price. However, that doesn't seem the best strategy at these low prices (or ever) -...
Interesting, http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/ did they just implicitly recognized BTC as a legal asset ?
As of the rest of the stash, they probably have to wait until the end of the prosecution ? May be it's all from different cases.
Also, the registration process seems to exclude the implication of exchanges.
Quoting Rgr1855
Hello everyone, I've been trading retail FX for a while now but I have recently started to watch BTC/USD. Do any of you have any insight as to how I could use the level II access available in BTC to my advantage. I've never actually been able to watch an order book so I'm not really sure how to use it properly and I don't want to get burned obviously. Thanks for your help.
Welcome, Rgr1855!

None of us really use the orderbook as far as i'm aware. Perhaps one of the traders here has some experience with or tips about L2...

In my own experience the orderbook can be deceptive. Sometimes, with a massive layer of orders around a certain price level, one would expect that they will cause reversal once triggered, but price ends up just systematically "eating" through it as traders (who are not using orders) enter the market.
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Interesting, http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/ did they just implicitly recognized BTC as a legal asset ? As of the rest of the stash, they probably have to wait until the end of the prosecution ? May be it's all from different cases. Also, the registration process seems to exclude the implication of exchanges.
hi lady_luck,

Thanks for the link, i read there that the auction doesn't include the accused's coins - some consolation for him, eh?

I guess this has some impact on Bitcoin's official status. Combined with a tax directive and SEC decree, btc is mainstream.
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Hello, This PA was a perfect fit in the channel. May be 5 of C still to come. To me, still on track for a new high (despite silkroad ).
The way i see this PA, it's really touch-and-go... could continue dropping into the month end, or (with 3 waves from the top) we may see a wave up above 650 - if it's a B wave then C down will be devastating. If it's the start of wave 5 up then that'll be interesting. For the first time, in light of this last wave up, I'm starting to think Bitcoin may not see $2000 any time soon.
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi lady_luck, Thanks for the link, i read there that the auction doesn't include the accused's coins - some consolation for him, eh? I guess this has some impact on Bitcoin's official status. Combined with a tax directive and SEC decree, btc is mainstream.
The other interesting thing is, the sell is only split in 10 lots of 3000btc. With a 200,000usd deposit to play, look like they expect 100$ per btc as a strict minimum.
That doesn't leave many potential buyers.
Anyone with that type of money, willing to purchase BTC from the government and having their identity in the open, seem unlikely to sell their lot immediately.
The way I see it, we'll have a new major "holder" in the game, that's why this news is pretty bullish in my opinion.

edit : and if the auction end up above $300/btc, seeing a new low under $400 in the coming month will be hard. This would be almost like giving a sanctioned price for BTC.

edit 2 : current PA is really similar to mtgox 2010 to 2011. Also LTC chart look very much alike october 2013.
How fast and the volume necessary for yesterday's low, made me think more of an opportunity to close short position than the beginning of a deeper correction.
At this time PA didn't move below the top of "1" which is also the end of "iv of 3" around 640, so for me a wave 5 up feels more likely.
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} The other interesting thing is, the sell is only split in 10 lots of 3000btc. With a 200,000usd deposit to play, look like they expect 100$ per btc as a strict minimum. That doesn't leave many potential buyers. Anyone with that type of money, willing to purchase BTC from the government and having their identity in the open, seem unlikely to sell their lot immediately. The way I see it, we'll have a new major "holder" in the game, that's why this news is pretty bullish in my opinion. edit : and if the auction end up above $300/btc, seeing...
Interesting perspective on SR... and your assessment of market conditions too. Lots of off-the-beaten-track cooking going on in your worldview kitchen!
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi lady_luck, Thanks for the link, i read there that the auction doesn't include the accused's coins - some consolation for him, eh? I guess this has some impact on Bitcoin's official status. Combined with a tax directive and SEC decree, btc is mainstream.
My understanding is that BTC has tax status of a 'property' in the US
http://www.coindesk.com/internal-rev...cies-property/

Also afaik, (could be wrong ofc) but the SR auction is not a 'sell' of BTC's into fiat as we see on the usual exchange action that will push the price lower, its just a transfer to a new owner (auction winner) same as any other auction item. So we shouldnt see a drop in price directly, only from the sentiment / fear of it, as whomever wins the auction is unlikely to plan to then sell them quickly after winning them - why would they when the auction price and price on the day are so uncertain? why not just start a bitstamp account instead?
I could imagine the auction price is going to go to pretty much market value, since auctioneers will have live feeds of both prices on the day. So if they are in the auction to then sell them for a quick buck immediatelly, they need to ensure a good auction price as they then have to get them transferred first etc so delaying the direct effect. so any huge drop from this would be just weird imho.

Someone on another thread suggested its likely only big time investors would go for this, and they are likely to pay above market value for them because the investors have trouble getting big figures into bitstamp via official channels (due to regulation uncertainty). An auction purchase is a legit one, so they can talley it up properly with the tax man and get their btc investment on their portfolio. imho if this is true and we learn the auction winner paid above market value it could cause another bull rally pushing prices up to cyclical highs. Assuming im not still delierious from the high fever ive had all week in my 30deg appartment LOL sorry for the long post, it didnt start this way! hehe

on a trading note im hoping we get some nice lows as i want to swap all my altcoins for btc directly, since ltcbtc price is inverse of usdbtc if we get 400 low in btc im hoping for .3 in ltcbtc. getting tired of these alts now, i think its plenty for me to just watch btc going forward
have good weekend all!

edit:
oh wait, heres info on one VC firm who were interested at least at some stage:
http://www.coindesk.com/vc-firm-bid-...road-bitcoins/

ironic how the US authorities are going to facilitate one of the biggest BTC sales, eh
Quoting lady_luck
edit 2 : current PA is really similar to mtgox 2010 to 2011. Also LTC chart look very much alike october 2013. How fast and the volume necessary for yesterday's low, made me think more of an opportunity to close short position than the beginning of a deeper correction. At this time PA didn't move below the top of "1" which is also the end of "iv of 3" around 640, so for me a wave 5 up feels more likely.
You're brave. That must feel like stepping in front of an oncoming train while catching a falling knife!

I felt a sense of awe watching that wave yesterday... it just kept going with great purpose.

I cannot bring myself to call direction here. This auction announcement has put the fox in the chicken coup and some gloom has returned to the market. I like your explanation that it may prove to be bullish, so in this regard i'm concerned about the market's reaction on Monday. On the bearish side, the wave up has been limp and I think the bulls sense this and it must be causing them concern. No-one expects the move since April to have been a D wave, but it may well be.

Everything considered, for me, this is the perfect place to be hedged equally both ways in the market - the downside is limited to 200 minimum and the upside cannot assert itself without a fight. We were both saying June is going to be boring. I think it could turn out to be volatile!

Good Luck and Good Night.
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting gjgjg
{quote} My understanding is that BTC has tax status of a 'property' in the US http://www.coindesk.com/internal-rev...cies-property/ Also afaik, (could be wrong ofc) but the SR auction is not a 'sell' of BTC's into fiat as we see on the usual exchange action that will push the price lower, its just a transfer to a new owner (auction winner) same as any other auction item. So we shouldnt see a drop in price directly, only from the sentiment / fear of it, as whomever wins the auction is unlikely to plan to then...
gjgjg, i enjoyed reading your post and another interesting perspective on the auction.
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting tostaky06
you mean 465 or 645 ?
465 L_L 465....
Shit Happens
I don't think that, but let see ... i will buy more if we go back there
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} 465 L_L 465....
As I see it...
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Shit Happens
Buy walls at 560 dissapeared
(btc-e)
Quoting gjgjg
{quote} I could imagine the auction price is going to go to pretty much market value, since auctioneers will have live feeds of both prices on the day. So if they are in the auction to then sell them for a quick buck immediatelly, they need to ensure a good auction price as they then have to get them transferred first etc so delaying the direct effect. so any huge drop from this would be just weird imho. Someone on another thread suggested its likely only big time investors would go for this, and they are likely to pay above market value for them...
Hello,
You have some very interesting perspective. I agree with everything your said.
This could be a great opportunity for some financial institution to get into bitcoin with a big public statement.

Venzen,
Thanks for the kind words.

Short term, I only see two subwave left for this move down, iv and v of 5 of C .
Respective targets being 565-580 and 530-515.

For the coming weeks I can see a consensus on patience and 480.
But if 630 comes first it would be a good opportunity to sit out for bit.

An other interesting note, is on sideways (jan, april/may, june etc..) and how they've acted as trend reversal instead of continuation.

Last thought, besides PA in either a D wave or wave 4, there could be an altcount (may be not the most viable)
where april to may are part of the correction and only june is advance.
hi all, some longer term log scale charts.

BTCChina
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Bitstamp
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BTCe
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cryptocurrency everytime
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