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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #4,021
  • Jun 2, 2014 10:38pm Jun 2, 2014 10:38pm
Does this look familiar.??
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Money Makes Money
  • #4,022
  • Jun 2, 2014 11:05pm Jun 2, 2014 11:05pm
Quoting KiwiOz
G"MOrnin' All. I'm starting to wonder if I have got this all wrong.!!!!!!!!!!!! Just pulled up a log chart & it suddenly leapt out at me. My Targets are hit over 90% of the time. BUT. Stands to reason. Price has to move in the direction of the target to be hit. A change in direction & new targets need to be found. Kudo's to emptymind if this is so. Problem is. I still have 5 waves up.?????? {image}
KO, we have to consider both directions of trend. Right now its ambivalent - well, to some.

Considering everything - our analysis here, analysis "out there" and the market's overall bullish sentiment - we have a strong case for relentless advance. As you say in another post about the JPY today, where the only option is to be long until proven otherwise, Bitcoin is in a similar mode now - well, has been since it completed that first wave A in December. A leveraged long position (and using USD as collateral) with Bitfinex, for example, has no possibility of liquidating - even if Bitcoin goes to $0.01. So these kinds of options could just be exercised anyway for the longterm, while we look for intraday and weekly targets.

For our scenario of another low (before the proper rally) to be invalidated we might have to wait for price to form a base above 1000. Even then - is that proof? The FBeye can auction off 144,000 coins right there, or the USsay declare Bitcoin as contraband - or more likely, the SEC could accept Wall Streets invitation to regulate Bitcoin and declare derivative products as legal and we have the overnight creation of "paper BTC" and with it, orchestrated manipulation and devaluation.

The way i look at it is that, ultimately, there is no proof of any of our counts, targets and analysis until after the fact - in hindsight we understand everything. Having at least one more-or-less permanent Bitcoin long position is a good idea. Trading it intraday and weekly as we do, leaves us with the dilemma of applying rational tools to a highly irrational instrument, because this is a two months in the year bullish stampede.

As for where we are right now:
1) up on low (and decreasing) volume
2) it may look like an awakening dragon on an intraday chart, but considering the growth in liquidity, this wave up is unimpressive
3) compounding divergence will force a correction eventually
4) looking at every previous advance, there is a pre-wave before the parabolic advance - the pre-wave is retraced almost completely

If this just keeps going up (because it can) then what tools do we use to appraise advance and correction? Our current toolset only works crudely as applied to advance. Not that we should stop trying and learning!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,023
  • Jun 2, 2014 11:11pm Jun 2, 2014 11:11pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Yes Hmmm... I've been looking at this chart pretty much all day trying to find some better labels. ABC's are the best because of "i don't know what's going on". I can also swap with some wave 1/2 of different degree, but it's not as proportionate. I colored two area in green in red, because they are very similar, yet with a subtle difference (overlap) which could gives us better idea of what the previous one was. Anyway, I might be very very wrong, but I'm seeing 710-730 again as an upcoming target. The next 12hour will be crucial. If...
L_L,

I like those pattern thingy's - that and mag lines might the best tools we have during the advance

This is only a tame advance - but I can't count it. Imagine when it goes parabolic! I try, but it doesn't help - there is always a degree left dangling or an extra ABC - at the END of the wave!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,024
  • Jun 2, 2014 11:15pm Jun 2, 2014 11:15pm
Quoting KiwiOz
Does this look familiar.?? {image}
ah yes... the eternal Euro triangle - kind of like a Rorshack Pattern - look at it a certain way and it's a bullish flag promising the moon - look in another way and it's a three drive into oblivion.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,025
  • Edited 1:14am Jun 3, 2014 12:45am | Edited 1:14am
BTCe - if this is a double top then the downside target is 530 as per KO's corresponding magnetic line target.

If it's the end of wave 3 then wave 5 targets to the upside are 680, 720 and 745 - I derived these from fib projections off the first wave up from 600

Slow jagged deline to 620 means this was the first wave up of a monster
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,026
  • Jun 3, 2014 2:09am Jun 3, 2014 2:09am
Quoting venzen
BTCe - if this is a double top then the downside target is 530 as per KO's corresponding magnetic line target. If it's the end of wave 3 then wave 5 targets to the upside are 680, 720 and 745 - I derived these from fib projections off the first wave up from 600 Slow jagged deline to 620 means this was the first wave up of a monster
Quite right mate. Two targets. One up n one down..........555 n 725..There's money to be made either way.
Waiting for confirmation...Above 666 or below 644.
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Money Makes Money
  • #4,027
  • Edited 3:41am Jun 3, 2014 3:22am | Edited 3:41am
wow you can see 4 wave degrees in this chart
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bros, your greatest enemy is your own ego
  • #4,028
  • Jun 3, 2014 4:32am Jun 3, 2014 4:32am
Quoting emptymind
wow you can see 4 wave degrees in this chart {image} bros, your greatest enemy is your own ego
Hi emptymind. If your count proves to be correct to date, I think your wave 4 will retrace to around 555 & wave 5 should top out around 770.....Cheers.
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Money Makes Money
  • #4,029
  • Jun 3, 2014 5:35am Jun 3, 2014 5:35am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Hi emptymind. If your count proves to be correct to date, I think your wave 4 will retrace to around 555 & wave 5 should top out around 770.....Cheers. {image} {image}
hi KiwiOz, my wave (3) hasn't topped out yet. i'm expecting an extended wave 5 taking out the ATH so wave (4) according to my count is way too early to determine. good luck bro.
  • #4,030
  • Jun 3, 2014 6:11am Jun 3, 2014 6:11am
Quoting emptymind
{quote} hi KiwiOz, my wave (3) hasn't topped out yet. i'm expecting an extended wave 5 taking out the ATH so wave (4) according to my count is way too early to determine. good luck bro.
Yeah I know.. I meant wave 3 not (3) But your (3) is where I put the 5.. At 770. hope that makes sense. Cheers.
Money Makes Money
  • #4,031
  • Edited 9:13am Jun 3, 2014 8:23am | Edited 9:13am
Quoting venzen
BTCe - if this is a double top then the downside target is 530 as per KO's corresponding magnetic line target. If it's the end of wave 3 then wave 5 targets to the upside are 680, 720 and 745 - I derived these from fib projections off the first wave up from 600 Slow jagged deline to 620 means this was the first wave up of a monster
Hello,

To conclude this wave degree from 560 there is one more wave up, same amplitude as the one from 620 yesterday.
So 710-730 before a retracement.
I thought of what i did with LTC chart yesterday, I got I/II for april, 1/2 to 590/560, and i/ii at 710/630 would also fit the patterns and fibs.
It explain why LTC "doesn't have to" make a new high and still follow the BTC wave cycle.

edit : and my baby NXT did 0.000101 overnight, "next" target 0.000136 or 0.55cny. And finally broke the usd200,000 daily volume mark.

edit 2 : I agree Venzen, once in uncharted territory/rally, like in april13, I've found EW hard to use, at the exception of calling the top.
I mostly used those "patterns" in november to trade "structures" more than waves and it was much less time waiting for PA to never correct.
Unfortunately it often sounds like giving random number out of a hat
  • #4,032
  • Jun 3, 2014 8:58am Jun 3, 2014 8:58am
Well bugga me dead. For the last 3 weeks I have been drawing my lines off the wrong anchor points. Bugga bugga.The made me do it.
No excuses & my apologies to all. No wonder I was calling for a retracement early.
Here are the correct lines. The green ones are the wrong lines. Well not so much wrong, they do show the waves but not the ultimate target.
Sorry folks.
Mind you.!! A 50% retrace still comes back to 550
Now I'm off to bed in shame..
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Money Makes Money
  • #4,033
  • Jun 3, 2014 11:22am Jun 3, 2014 11:22am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Hello, To conclude this wave degree from 560 there is one more wave up, same amplitude as the one from 620 yesterday. So 710-730 before a retracement. I thought of what i did with LTC chart yesterday, I got I/II for april, 1/2 to 590/560, and i/ii at 710/630 would also fit the patterns and fibs. It explain why LTC "doesn't have to" make a new high and still follow the BTC wave cycle. edit : and my baby NXT did 0.000101 overnight, "next" target 0.000136 or 0.55cny. And finally broke the usd200,000 daily volume mark. edit 2 : I agree Venzen,...
I just spent some time comparing current PA (BTCe and Finex) to previous waves and the patterns jumped out at me again. I scanned around for "where are we in a similar pattern" and ended up in the same wave structure you highlighted yesterday. It's definitely a way to navigate... my wave counting is just not finding a proper sequence that repeats. Counting one structure is OK but the next one doesn't fit. Having a library of patterns is much more helpful. And yes, I see the repetition at different degrees, as you mention with 1-2, i-ii... wherever the 3-4 labels go doesn't matter as much as knowing where the pattern begins and ends!

Great news about NXT - i can imagine that must be very exciting - watching and being part of a new altcoin growing in the market and finding it's own feet.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,034
  • Jun 3, 2014 11:29am Jun 3, 2014 11:29am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Hello, To conclude this wave degree from 560 there is one more wave up, same amplitude as the one from 620 yesterday. So 710-730 before a retracement. I thought of what i did with LTC chart yesterday, I got I/II for april, 1/2 to 590/560, and i/ii at 710/630 would also fit the patterns and fibs. It explain why LTC "doesn't have to" make a new high and still follow the BTC wave cycle. edit : and my baby NXT did 0.000101 overnight, "next" target 0.000136 or 0.55cny. And finally broke the usd200,000 daily volume mark. edit 2 : I agree Venzen,...
L_L,

Just to compare with you (and i'll post a chart now) i have us at a B wave (perhaps now going down in C) as on the 26th from 590 (BTCe) ... which wave pattern are you seeing?

Edit: This is either the A wave down or the C wave down... last time Finex also made a HH in the B wave top while BTCe's B wave was lower than the wave 5 top... anyhow - i'm not exactly sure yet, becasue the preceeding action is not identical, the B waves were longer and the Bwave top was sharper... i'll go over the chart again and post if i find something more clear.

Edit2: perhaps the Bwave is only now starting and will develop sideways (as before) and then make a "horn" and drop sharply in C...?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,035
  • Edited 12:43pm Jun 3, 2014 11:48am | Edited 12:43pm
Hmmm if you look on H4, on may 25th, their is the candle up to 579 on bitstamp. Followed by 2 red and 2 green arround which you can draw an isosceles triangle, this is "were we are", let's say "wave iv" for convenience. Then come two other green up to 595.
In current case "wave iv" didn't extend, i'm expecting the following to do so. 690 at least, but mostlikely 710 or even 730.

Then for the retracement, different case scenario.
If 1/2 was at 590/560 and this is i/ii, targets are around fib .618 at 630
If 440 to 710 is wave 3 and 540 in april was wave 1 , then fib .382 at 610
If 440 to 710 is wave i and 540 april was wave 1, then fib .5 between 525-560

edit : LTC has been on the same wave structure as BTC all along. So the count need to explain the difference in intensity without breaking the rules. Waves 1/2 of different degree is the only count to do so.

The following chart show the triangle I mentioned. And in various colors, potential count for the top and their respective retracement targets.
I prefer the one with the blue arrow.
I'm expecting the top of that wave in about 30h from now, where the triangle apex is.
http://i.imgur.com/Uxf3EB3.png
  • #4,036
  • Jun 3, 2014 12:08pm Jun 3, 2014 12:08pm
BTCe - a quick draft with potential beginnings and endings.

L_L, something like this? I don't have your two patterns from yesterday on-screen - does it match?

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edit: i noticed you just posted before me, so checking the "where we are" now...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,037
  • Jun 3, 2014 12:20pm Jun 3, 2014 12:20pm
Stamp daily

This one? (the time scale on the chart is a bit too big to make sense of your explanation but I'm going to try to find that position on the chart... us being in different timezones also complicates matters... "on the 25th" Looking on the 15min chart i think we're both indicating exactly the same wave area.... And talking about "indicate" - the indicators aren't much help in this because it's happening at different degrees...

Attached Image
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,038
  • Edited 1:17pm Jun 3, 2014 1:05pm | Edited 1:17pm
I edited the previous post with a chart and targets. And sorry, I meant stamp H4
It's very similar to yours. This M15 you posted is a perfect example of a similar structure at play.
Here is a more detailed version of the patterns.
http://i.imgur.com/rJToP6D.png
  • #4,039
  • Jun 3, 2014 1:23pm Jun 3, 2014 1:23pm
Quoting lady_luck
I edited the previous post with a chart and targets. And sorry, I meant stamp H4 It's very similar to yours. Here is a more detailed version of the patterns. {image}
Thanks for this... yes, we're in agreement about the area and the pattern.
If we're now in a sideways B wave, then it looks like the end of the B wave is going to make a HH in all the exchanges. It did this last time in Stamp and Finex but not BTCe but now even BTCe is looking like the B wave is being chased up...

The alternative i see is that the last high today (665 on BTCe) was the B wave top and we're already in C going down - but in a B subwave against the downtrend - that kind of explains the lack of progress and strange wave patterns (on 5 min chart).

So in the first case we can expect to continue slightly upward in a drawn out B wave. In the alternative case we should see a decline to around 600.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,040
  • Jun 3, 2014 1:33pm Jun 3, 2014 1:33pm
Quoting lady_luck
I edited the previous post with a chart and targets. And sorry, I meant stamp H4 It's very similar to yours. This M15 you posted is a perfect example of a similar structure at play. Here is a more detailed version of the patterns. {image}
hmm yes... The wave action that you've put inside a cyan rectangle... this is the mystery wave for me. I agree it should be demarkated and labelled "2" like that until we (perhaps) figure it out... sometimes it seems like its part of the decline (but making a lower low) and other times it looks like its a long triangle or corrective combination (and part of wave 2) before wave 3 sprouts like a magic bean from the ground!

That's also the structure I have been labelling AB ab... but i think i might have to revise that idea... for now, as you have it labelled and boxed its a good working pattern and a easy to spot "end of wave 2 / start of 3".

edit: I'm going to call it a day. Goodnight lady_luck!
cryptocurrency everytime
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