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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #4,001
  • Jun 2, 2014 8:47am Jun 2, 2014 8:47am
Quoting KiwiOz
Howdy Y'all. Bitcoin holders are gonna hate me for this but I still cannot see the past 3 weeks action as anything other than a major retracement. (Wave 4 of the down trend) First I will qualify my next predictions. 1. No predictions are ever a certain thing. 2. So long as 770 is not taken out. I say 770 because if there is another wave to come for this move, that is where it should end. I have 3 targets to the SOUTH......... 555, 430, 230. Duration. 2 Months. (End of July) If I am wrong....A bounce at 555 will carry on to 990 if not capped at 770,...
Hello KO,
Yes, I also have 555, coming up as the most likely target.

Venzen,
My last chart from yesterday was wrong, channel is busted, this look like a "real" abc, I'm seeing 645 for b and then, will see. I doubt it would overlap april's top at 540, this level is also fib .618 and wave iv of this upmove, so it's the best target I have so far.

Regarding the similarity with april 2013, the triangle in April was different in shape, may be both are wave 4, but even so, the current correction is more like an ABC on most exchanges. This correction is the longest in BTC history, and most of the PA has been below the fib .5. This is definitely unique

Last thing, I keep having LTC on my mind and the chart is bugging me. Do you have any count for it ?
  • #4,002
  • Jun 2, 2014 9:01am Jun 2, 2014 9:01am
G'Day L_L. I think Ltc has been there & done that. I'm targeting 9.80 at present.
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  • #4,003
  • Jun 2, 2014 9:18am Jun 2, 2014 9:18am
Quoting KiwiOz
G'Day L_L. I think Ltc has been there & done that. I'm targeting 9.80 at present. {image}
Thanks, that make sens. My problem was, knowing the scenario that BTC PA has eliminated, and knowing that so far since november the count was the same for both, i couldn't find a match for both.
Also, I'm having LTCBTC targets at 0.022 and 0.024 but they can be reach with your count too
  • #4,004
  • Jun 2, 2014 9:23am Jun 2, 2014 9:23am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Thanks, that make sens. My problem was, knowing the scenario that BTC PA has eliminated, and knowing that so far since november the count was the same for both, i couldn't find a match for both. Also, I'm having LTCBTC targets at 0.022 and 0.024 but they can be reach with your count too
Ltc/Btc i get 0.011.
I get the feeling you will not see 645 for Btc.
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  • #4,005
  • Jun 2, 2014 10:02am Jun 2, 2014 10:02am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Hello KO, Yes, I also have 555, coming up as the most likely target. Venzen, My last chart from yesterday was wrong, channel is busted, this look like a "real" abc, I'm seeing 645 for b and then, will see. I doubt it would overlap april's top at 540, this level is also fib .618 and wave iv of this upmove, so it's the best target I have so far. Regarding the similarity with april 2013, the triangle in April was different in shape, may be both are wave 4, but even so, the current correction is more like an ABC on most exchanges. This correction...
hi lady_luck,

I agree with KO, the market seems preoccupied with the longterm trendline (from Now & Jan tops) that cuts through 620 (BTCe) and a return to 645, while a reasonable Fib target, just seems too "maybe" right now. I can't be sure but i'd expect we go lower to 580 or 555 before coming back to test this longterm TL and I think the bulls might cross north of it then and could get as far as 680 in an exaggerated B wave. Remember, they're still convinced this is the rally!

Interesting, when I spent some time on TV yesterday, there was absolute consensus that this is going over 1000 - complete unanimity. In 2 hours I saw the word "moon" about 20 times and people were discouraging one another to talk about correction as if the only option in the world is to be long. This kind of thing is a little bit scary - when people form a herd and assume the group mind's idea is correct and discourage each other from mentioning "uncomfortable" topics. Someone said that they "really prefer BTC rallies" and I asked him if he was sure this is a rally... complete pandemonium followed!

Meanwhile back on the ground, we'll have some careful analysis and manuevering to do, because we might decline far down only to come up in a B wave (or X wave) of this final (or second-last) wave of the decline. Later in the process, we might even go to a new high, right? I doubt the last possibility but let's not forget we're in a market that can get irrational.

LTC - i've wanted to look at that chart again now that price has twisted and turned. I have no up-to-date count, but I'll post a chart in the coming days.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,006
  • Jun 2, 2014 10:26am Jun 2, 2014 10:26am
Come to think about it... we're missing the short squeeze before price goes down with conviction. So the B wave - whether from current levels or from lower down - will make a good arena for shorts to get stretched and for the bulls to pile into a classic "bull trap". That's if this market is sophisticated enough for all that, but I imagine this is not always orchestrated by market makers, but an expression of the ingrained human need for drama at critical times
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,007
  • Jun 2, 2014 10:59am Jun 2, 2014 10:59am
@KiwiOz

it's a little difficult to see, but i have it as an expanding triangle. note the (d) wave is higher than (b).
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  • #4,008
  • Jun 2, 2014 12:32pm Jun 2, 2014 12:32pm

I keep !!!!!!!


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  • #4,009
  • Jun 2, 2014 2:36pm Jun 2, 2014 2:36pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} ... I'm seeing 645 for b and then, will see. I doubt it would overlap april's top at 540, this level is also fib .618 and wave iv of this upmove, so it's the best target I have so far. Regarding the similarity with april 2013, the triangle in April was different in shape, may be both are wave 4, but even so, the current correction is more like an ABC on most exchanges. This correction is the longest in BTC history, and most of the PA has been below the fib .5. This is definitely unique
printing now
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #4,010
  • Edited 3:13pm Jun 2, 2014 2:57pm | Edited 3:13pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} printing now
Yes

Hmmm... I've been looking at this chart pretty much all day trying to find some better labels.
ABC's are the best because of "i don't know what's going on". I can also swap with some wave 1/2 of different degree, but it's not as proportionate.
I colored two area in green in red, because they are very similar, yet with a subtle difference (overlap) which could gives us better idea of what the previous one was.

Anyway, I might be very very wrong, but I'm seeing 710-730 again as an upcoming target. The next 12hour will be crucial. If PA keep on slowly curving up toward 650 within the next hourly candles, a 6h RSI crossing and a diminishing volume, then an other high is something to watch for.

http://i.imgur.com/WiNbuIE.png
  • #4,011
  • Jun 2, 2014 5:31pm Jun 2, 2014 5:31pm
G"MOrnin' All. I'm starting to wonder if I have got this all wrong.!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just pulled up a log chart & it suddenly leapt out at me.
My Targets are hit over 90% of the time. BUT. Stands to reason. Price has to move in the direction of the target to be hit.
A change in direction & new targets need to be found. Kudo's to emptymind if this is so.
Problem is. I still have 5 waves up.??????
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  • #4,012
  • Jun 2, 2014 5:31pm Jun 2, 2014 5:31pm
Quoting emptymind
@KiwiOz it's a little difficult to see, but i have it as an expanding triangle. note the (d) wave is higher than (b). {image} {image}
Cheers mate. Interesting concept.
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  • #4,013
  • Jun 2, 2014 5:45pm Jun 2, 2014 5:45pm
This is like the JPY charts where price is being manipulated up n up. Perhaps like the Japanese Gov't the Bitcoin big money is determined to keep the momentum to higher n higher highs.??
If so. The only way to trade it is to go long until your SL is taken out.
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  • #4,014
  • Edited 5:57pm Jun 2, 2014 5:47pm | Edited 5:57pm
I labelled the LTCUSD chart and make it coincide, it's interesting. The labels used on LTC also works on BTC. Only targets differ.
According to the shape similarity i mentioned earlier, I have 14. 9 to 17.1 coming up with wave iii and wave 3.
Or 0.021 to 0.023 LTCBTC, which work with my BTC target at 730.
Good luck everyone
http://i.imgur.com/imczXTO.png
http://i.imgur.com/6mOTD9D.png
  • #4,015
  • Jun 2, 2014 5:59pm Jun 2, 2014 5:59pm
Pure speculation here.
For this to work, we need a retrace now.
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  • #4,016
  • Jun 2, 2014 6:17pm Jun 2, 2014 6:17pm
Long term view... getting very interesting
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MarK
  • #4,017
  • Jun 2, 2014 6:55pm Jun 2, 2014 6:55pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} Now that you point it out, i see what you mean... but wouldn't the triangles just progressively get smaller or something? I don't think i understand what you mean by "the next triangle to respect that" ... sorry i'm also tired so not too bright right now. According to these TLson emptymind's log chart we are going up any moment now! Unless price breaks through the TL - but i doubt it. What do you think? {image}


That was the solution ...
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  • #4,018
  • Jun 2, 2014 8:28pm Jun 2, 2014 8:28pm
Quoting KiwiOz
Pure speculation here. For this to work, we need a retrace now. {image}
If this were to happen, that would change my blue 3 into 1 of 5 of 3 would it not,.??
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  • #4,019
  • Jun 2, 2014 8:42pm Jun 2, 2014 8:42pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} If this were to happen, that would change my blue 3 into 1 of 5 of 3 would it not,.??
Evening,
I didn't want to be rude and correct you, but yeah, it surely would be better.
And on your log chats, you are missing the oct2010 to july 2011 part from Mtgox (which started trading BTC way before what the previous log chart shows). That might influence the count/proportion :
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgo...zm1g10zm2g25zl
  • #4,020
  • Jun 2, 2014 8:58pm Jun 2, 2014 8:58pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Evening, I didn't want to be rude and correct you, but yeah, it surely would be better. And on your log chats, you are missing the oct2010 to july 2011 part from Mtgox (which started trading BTC way before what the previous log chart shows). That might influence the count/proportion : http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgo...zm1g10zm2g25zl
Hey L_L. You can be rude anytime you like. I just take it as constructive criticism..
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