Inserted Video
Next target maybe ...
- Post #3,962
- Quote
- May 31, 2014 4:09am May 31, 2014 4:09am
i believe intermediate wave (3) will extend and take out the top at 1163 but we have to switch to natural log to calculate the targets. it is reasonable for wave (3) to be 261.8% of wave (1)
wave (0) = 339.79
wave (1) = 548
wave (2) = 420.27
(ln(548)-ln(339.79))*2.618+ln(429.27) = 1,500.19 ...this a reasonable wave (3) target
minute wave i, ii, iii, iv, v of the minor wave 5 will move rapidly with little corrections all the way to 1500.......
@venzen, i apologize for the basher remarks
wave (0) = 339.79
wave (1) = 548
wave (2) = 420.27
(ln(548)-ln(339.79))*2.618+ln(429.27) = 1,500.19 ...this a reasonable wave (3) target
minute wave i, ii, iii, iv, v of the minor wave 5 will move rapidly with little corrections all the way to 1500.......
@venzen, i apologize for the basher remarks
- Post #3,963
- Quote
- May 31, 2014 8:20am May 31, 2014 8:20am
I don't bash him, i like to read him, i'm just happy to see chart, i said i will keep whatever it happen ...
Sorry for my humor if it hurts you ...
(and hope Putin will make a deal with Hollande the 5th June against dollar ^^, but they are threaten BNP
)
Sorry for my humor if it hurts you ...
(and hope Putin will make a deal with Hollande the 5th June against dollar ^^, but they are threaten BNP
)
- Post #3,965
- Quote
- May 31, 2014 10:00am May 31, 2014 10:00am
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: Pips Pod... | 1,611 Posts
- Post #3,966
- Quote
- Edited at 10:27am May 31, 2014 10:11am | Edited at 10:27am
{quote} i think the blue count "looks" right... the idea that there was a weakening of downtrend and then a gradual rise and the waves are building bigger and bigger - it seems like the amplitude (or degree?) of each wave is increasing. It'll be interesting to see what the correction from around 620 does - whether it retraces deeply or just bounces off the ascending channel and continues...
Although, I've notice two interesting things (surprisingly adding up to 1 by fib)
First is about wave 1, it's more clear on altcoins and LTC(even on the daily) or wave i of BTC, the corrective wave 2 tend to end at fib .764 .With that logic we could may be make sens of april move to 540 on BTC ?
The second thing is about the BTC structure, we are waiting for an overlap to help situate ourselves. But the structure remind me a lot of 2011, a succession of wave with "horizontal" correction near the top (fib .236), the subminuette are especially interesting :
http://i.imgur.com/IvY8mxD.png
- Post #3,967
- Quote
- May 31, 2014 9:20pm May 31, 2014 9:20pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
{quote} Thanks, I also prefer the blue count, and the reason you are giving are exactly why
30 degrees at 8am and the cicadas are announcing a cooker of a day! No-doubt the sky will be filled with popcorn clouds by 3pm and thunder showers all night tonight.
The 2011 chart gives a lot of insight. As well as what LTCUSD is doing the past few weeks. The bearish scenario is very much alive - maybe not for a lower low but for a protracted consolidation around 440. This wave up is impressive but it does not have the shape or accompanying indicators of a BTC advance.
cryptocurrency everytime
- Post #3,968
- Quote
- May 31, 2014 9:41pm May 31, 2014 9:41pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
BTCe 4H
The clues of imminent reversal are in the S/R and in MACD (bottom). Unless price can shoot up and clear the previous MACD high, the divergence will enforce a reversal and strong correction to "reset" MACD. This is not an absolute requirement but is true most of the time. I can't give a percentage probability because I'm wrong 50% of the time and 90% of statistics are just made up anyway.
The clues of imminent reversal are in the S/R and in MACD (bottom). Unless price can shoot up and clear the previous MACD high, the divergence will enforce a reversal and strong correction to "reset" MACD. This is not an absolute requirement but is true most of the time. I can't give a percentage probability because I'm wrong 50% of the time and 90% of statistics are just made up anyway.
cryptocurrency everytime
- Post #3,969
- Quote
- Jun 1, 2014 1:14am Jun 1, 2014 1:14am
im no a fan of indicators but the weekly macd is setting up for the mother of all rallys.
LL, venzen and others... are you going to fight the trend all the way to 8K+? and also fight the market cycles too? impressively stubborn you both are!
LL, venzen and others... are you going to fight the trend all the way to 8K+? and also fight the market cycles too? impressively stubborn you both are!
- Post #3,970
- Quote
- Jun 1, 2014 2:38am Jun 1, 2014 2:38am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
cryptocurrency everytime
- Post #3,971
- Quote
- Jun 1, 2014 4:37am Jun 1, 2014 4:37am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Sep 2013 | 2,501 Posts
Shit Happens
- Post #3,972
- Quote
- Jun 1, 2014 5:16am Jun 1, 2014 5:16am
i understand many of you want the market to prove itself and take out the ATH at 1163. but that actually already happened at the cycle degree level at 259.34. the market already took out that high which proves we are in an extended wave (III) trend / channel...
if you look at my cycle degree labels. we can already show the minimum target for wave III (cycle degree) is 5256. that is where wave I equal wave III in size according to ewp that is the minimum. this is a conservative target because wave three in general are atleast 161.8% of wave one in real life charts or even larger
to calculate minimum wave III target ...,
ln(259.34)-ln(2.22)+ln(45)=5,256.89
if you look at my cycle degree labels. we can already show the minimum target for wave III (cycle degree) is 5256. that is where wave I equal wave III in size according to ewp that is the minimum. this is a conservative target because wave three in general are atleast 161.8% of wave one in real life charts or even larger
to calculate minimum wave III target ...,
ln(259.34)-ln(2.22)+ln(45)=5,256.89
- Post #3,973
- Quote
- Jun 1, 2014 7:31am Jun 1, 2014 7:31am
i understand many of you want the market to prove itself and take out the ATH at 1163. but that actually already happened at the cycle degree level at 259.34. the market already took out that high which proves we are in an extended wave (III) trend / channel... if you look at my cycle degree labels. we can already show the minimum target for wave III (cycle degree) is 5256. that is where wave I equal wave III in size according to ewp that is the minimum. this is a conservative target because wave three in general are atleast 161.8% of wave one in...
Just to note Im not taking sides and see potential for both scenarios, my preference would be your scenario - straight up to 5K+ without any messing around
but knowing my luck, the opposite will happen lol
- Post #3,975
- Quote
- Edited at 12:28pm Jun 1, 2014 12:05pm | Edited at 12:28pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
i understand many of you want the market to prove itself and take out the ATH at 1163. but that actually already happened at the cycle degree level at 259.34. the market already took out that high which proves we are in an extended wave (III) trend / channel... if you look at my cycle degree labels. we can already show the minimum target for wave III (cycle degree) is 5256. that is where wave I equal wave III in size according to ewp that is the minimum. this is a conservative target because wave three in general are atleast 161.8% of wave one in...
cryptocurrency everytime
- Post #3,976
- Quote
- Jun 1, 2014 12:06pm Jun 1, 2014 12:06pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
{quote} If I may emptymind, based on your chart, a correction is still possible to the magnitude of what the others were saying, I believe (I crudely adjusted your chart below to illustrate what I mean - assuming the support line is as reliable at holding the previous 'breeches' as it is now - I copy pasted an old breach from Nov'13 in blue). A spike out of the support line you drew, if similar to previous ones, would hit around 350/400 (?). Im not used to looking at log charts
cryptocurrency everytime
- Post #3,977
- Quote
- Edited at 12:32pm Jun 1, 2014 12:14pm | Edited at 12:32pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
{quote} Hello, Yes I remember those days, it must be even worst in the islands. I hope your electricity survived. About a coming consolidation at 440, I'm afraid it already happened with the sideway. And I believe it's now a very significant support level. As of resetting the indicators, it sometime happen in stranger ways, an other sideway with daily candle closing constantly below the previous O/C would do the same, isn't it ? Either way finally got my 660 on bitfinex, so I should be short, or sitting it out, but i can't see that a wave v is thru......
I think we have the ending of this amazing wave putting in at smaller and smaller degrees. The last 4-5 days' action from 550 (on Bitfinex because thats the chart I have handy) looks like a fractal of the entire wave from near 410. This last segment should be wave 5 and then a correction is due, but i agree with you: it could go well into the 700s still. How it corrects will be very interesting and I hope we can stock up on some cheap longs down there!
edit: altho 670-680 (finex) seems to be a good end
edit3: actually, the chart below looks more like the entire rise from 340, doesn't it?
cryptocurrency everytime
- Post #3,978
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- Jun 1, 2014 12:27pm Jun 1, 2014 12:27pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
cryptocurrency everytime
- Post #3,979
- Quote
- Jun 1, 2014 12:30pm Jun 1, 2014 12:30pm
{quote} L_L, hot and then rain all afternoon - cooling everything down - and my electricity held.
If this is wave v of 3, then yes, 680 to 730.
About the coming correction, if it's a wave 4 I won't expect it lower than .764 or .618 at best.
If this is the top of wave I of the advance, then 540 would be my target for wave II
We'll know the top of v or whatever is there when LTC spikes
edit : I know i'm bashing it with NXT, but It's been really good to me since last time i mentioned, now third market cap, and there is project in developement to implement direct "purchase" USD to NXT (without BTC). Possibly in uptrend, I have some higher target still coming up.
- Post #3,980
- Quote
- Jun 1, 2014 1:35pm Jun 1, 2014 1:35pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
cryptocurrency everytime