Bitcoin technical analysis | Page 189 | Crypto Craft

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

BTC/USD

Similar Threads

Bitcoin-Family math and technical analysis 21 replies

Bitcoin Analysis 22 replies

Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis Or Graph Analysis? 28 replies

Attachments: Bitcoin technical analysis
Exit Attachments

Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #3,761
  • May 16, 2014 11:46am May 16, 2014 11:46am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Hello everyone, Exchanges and brokers always requires vigilance. Some location are good to protect us from the risk of fraud. But they are also more exposed to government actions. Having decent business information increase trust but also chances of hack. Despite a safe offer in a well respected country, Mtgox still managed to accumulate all of those weakness. From having most of my btc <with bank> transaction in oz, in the previous years, I can say their policy got updated very quick. I had a few buy via OKpay bounce back, because of gambling...
Hi L_L

Glad you posted this because, it's definitely time I start rationalizing my BTC and using compartments in different physical and virtual locations. You make a good point about "safe" locations and compartments. In the end, I think we will realize that there is no-one to trust with one's money. Not the bank, not the "legitimate" company down the road and not some faceless company in Europe somewhere. In the end a digital wallet to which only you have the private key is the only safe place - and even then we have to guard against hardware failure and other catastrophes - with multi-signature wallets.

To trade with leverage we have to take some risk in terms of depositing the coins somewhere else for the duration of the trade. Where that somewhere else is and who the "caretaker" broker will be - that's the question that KiwiOz and I have been trying to answer. Well, we've eliminated some bad options so far, and with your good advice added, lady_luck, maybe we can find 2 or 3 candidates and split funds between them.

Another issue that occurs to me now is that, should Bitcoin make the substantial rally we anticipate in our collective analysis - and one trades that rally long at 10:1 or 100:1 - then there is a big chance the broker cannot make good the CFD due to lack of liquidity as the price curves upwards. Not that this is enough to prevent me from trading with high leverage, but its another reason to spread the trading capital around between more than 1 (or even 2) brokers.

L_L , before, you mentioned 340 and 350...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,762
  • May 16, 2014 12:02pm May 16, 2014 12:02pm
Quoting Ilikefx
Does anyone have a profitable trade explorer for Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies?
Hi Ilikefx,

As far as I know Forex Factory does not have trade explorer links to the Bitcoin exchanges that we've been using to trade here. At least, not for my own trade accounts.

Even so, and take this in the professional context I intend, I don't think a cryptocurrency trade explorer would reveal anything more than the trade explorer for any other instrument, because trade is trade and the skills are built over time according to each individual's circumstances and psychology.

If I did have trade explorers up for Bitcoin, it would show a Mt.Gox account going from 0.01 to 0.6 BTC and then connection failure, as well as two other accounts with the initial deposits - some small profits from short trades during the past 5 months of BTCUSD decline, but other than that just long positions built in anticipation of a rally.

Hope that helps.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,763
  • May 16, 2014 12:08pm May 16, 2014 12:08pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} Hi L_L Glad you posted this because, it's definitely time I start rationalizing my BTC and using compartments in different physical and virtual locations. You make a good point about "safe" locations and compartments. In the end, I think we will realize that there is no-one to trust with one's money. Not the bank, not the "legitimate" company down the road and not some faceless company in Europe somewhere. In the end a digital wallet to which only you have the private key is the only safe place - and even then we have to guard against hardware...
For now, I find btce, bitfinex and cryptsy a good combination. Criteria being risk of fraud/hacking/government.
With three different location, bulgaria, shangai and US.
Bitfinex has been giving some good financial guaranty with their audit. Btce seem more hackproof, and cryptsy being a lesser target.
At least 2 different option for each altcoin, market and leverage.

About 340, I forgot to mention the TF, may be by 2016 at this cadence it's a long way away : 440,439, 440,439...342,341,342...
  • #3,764
  • Edited 12:40pm May 16, 2014 12:29pm | Edited 12:40pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} For now, I find btce, bitfinex and cryptsy a good combination. Criteria being risk of fraud/hacking/government. With three different location, bulgaria, shangai and US. Bitfinex has been giving some good financial guaranty with their audit. Btce seem more hackproof, and cryptsy being a lesser target. At least 2 different option for each altcoin, market and leverage. About 340, I forgot to mention the TF, may be by 2016 at this cadence it's a long way away : 440,439, 440,439...342,341,342...
BTC-e are OK because I'm already invested there and it's been incident free so far.
Bitfinex are OK because they're in China, they've been competent in the short time i've used them, and the fact that they vary the leverage they offer means I could maybe grab a 10:1 position at some time.
Your choice of Cryptsy - I hear you - but I'd prefer a broker that can give me 100:1 or more and then I'd move some funds out of BTC-e to them. (The number of USD conversions into and out of MT4 are a pain - and a potential stumbling block).

Oh, and I cannot give the broker documents and X-rays - they can have my email, my phone number and my GPG Public Key, but I cannot think why a broker needs to have my bank account and physical address and passport if we're going to be jointly making money via digital currency derivatives ? Unless they plan on disclosing that to someone I don't want to know...

So, what do we make of this PA now? It's above the decline TL but in a correction? Or is this the slow creeping triangle that eventually starts curving up and becomes the rally? I don't know - but I'd like to know - but whatever is going on the past week is untradable.

edit: What do you think is going on with price? or the market? for example, what made you say 440 and 450 before - that's exactly what happened and it seems right for this market - but where to from here - why did it consolidate here?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,765
  • May 16, 2014 12:54pm May 16, 2014 12:54pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} BTC-e are OK because I'm already invested there and it's been incident free so far. Bitfinex are OK because they're in China, they've been competent in the short time i've used them, and the fact that they vary the leverage they offer means I could maybe grab a 10:1 position at some time. Your choice of Cryptsy - I hear you - but I'd prefer a broker that can give me 100:1 or more and then I'd move some funds out of BTC-e to them. (The number of USD conversions into and out of MT4 are a pain - and a potential stumbling block). Oh, and I cannot...
Cryptsy or bter are only as good a generic wallet for holding a small but diversify amount of altcoins. That's their only reason to be in my list.
Regarding PA, i'm still short until proven wrong. Then I'll be happy to take the loss and and take profit once PA move above 500.

I remember a few month ago we were talking about targets below 100 and BTC historical/"super" cycle.
I was saying the only way to see that would be a slow and steady decline, where buyer who thought they had a bargain a 600 will be stuck selling at 500, those who thought of a bargain at 400 would have to sell at 300, and so on.
Well the market is exactly setting up that way.
This the longest and slowest part of the already longest and slowest corrective phase in bitcoin history. It doesn't feel like consolidation at all, not in the 400 range it doesn't make sens.
If we don't see a sharp move down by month end, I would be very wary of this eventuality.

Fortunately it could be the opposite, but like I said, I'm not worried of prices moving up, it's easy to switch and take profit then.
  • #3,766
  • May 16, 2014 12:58pm May 16, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} edit: What do you think is going on with price? or the market? for example, what made you say 440 and 450 before - that's exactly what happened and it seems right for this market - but where to from here - why did it consolidate here?
On Bitstamp it look slike a contracting triangle since the 28th, but drawing TLs either side of the BTC-e PA makes the last wave break the TL in several places... unless wave D is still in progress and must put in a last leg down?

Same thing for BTCChina's chart and BTC-e LTCUSD... it's as if wave D is now doing subwave (b) and needs a subwave (c) to the downside to complete it and make the TLs work.

Alternatively, it's not a triangle - but what is it?

Whatever is going on the major longterm TLs from 2012 and the TL capping the 2014 decline start forming apexes in the next few days, so whatever direction price is traveling in when it meets the time when the apex meets, price will go in the opposite direction.

hmmm
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,767
  • May 16, 2014 1:12pm May 16, 2014 1:12pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Cryptsy or bter are only as good a generic wallet for holding a small but diversify amount of altcoins. That's their only reason to be in my list. Regarding PA, i'm still short until proven wrong. Then I'll be happy to take the loss and and take profit once PA move above 500. I remember a few month ago we were talking about targets below 100 and BTC historical/"super" cycle. I was saying the only way to see that would be a slow and steady decline, where buyer who thought they had a bargain a 600 will be stuck selling at 500, those who thought...
i see your point about cryptsy and bter and must agree - even blockchain.info is good for that - but their sheer size makes them vulnerable, don't you think? I imagine blockchain.info is an easy target for DDoS and other attacks...

Right... slow decline to a low much lower than most people thought possible... squeezing almost everyone out... this is a possibility. I was on the #bitcoin-pricetalk channel the other day and this guy was trying to sell 89BTC (at $430 each) because he said LTC and Peercoin had a better future... (!) So, yes, they start losing hope and patience...

Also, because we're short from much higher up, there isn't the nagging worry of positions going into loss while this churning is happening below 500. I'm in the same mind as you with this: let the market show itself and if it means sacrificing 10-25% profit to be sure, then that's a kind of insurance we pay to get into long trades with higher probability and confidence.

However, like most of us here, I'm not doing this just for fun anymore, so some kind of price range every week is needed, else the instrument is not profitable to trade. You've mentioned this a few times before and I must acknowledge this is a concern. If it doesn't move we can't make profit. If it isn't at least partially predictable, we can't take position... so this slow creep across a major trendline - and abslutely NO consequence or reaction... that worries me a lot.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,768
  • May 16, 2014 1:20pm May 16, 2014 1:20pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} for example, what made you say 440 and 450 before
I have no idea how to label those waves and even less how to label April, november and this correction.
I only know a few things it is not.
Before last weekend when I said 450 on stamp and 440 btce, It's because there is is this strange pattern, it's only based on support/resistance line.
You can draw these lines from the top of the last corrective wave up before a low. <let's call them wave 4>
And this line work as a support for the previous wave B, wave 1 and wave b of 2.
Then once it's crossed by the wave 3 and 4, PA spend an equal amount of time below that same line now acting as resistance for the wave A, wave C, and wave 2 of the next sequence.
  • #3,769
  • May 16, 2014 1:37pm May 16, 2014 1:37pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} I have no idea how to label those waves and even less how to label April, november and this correction. I only know a few things it is not. Before last weekend when I said 450 on stamp and 440 btce, It's because there is is this strange pattern, it's only based on support/resistance line. You can draw these lines from the top of the last corrective wave up before a low. <let's call them wave 4> And this line work as a support for the previous wave B, wave 1 and wave b of 2. Then once it's crossed by the wave 3 and 4, PA spend an equal amount...
I just checked that on the chart and its true in the major corrective waves and most of the minor corrections elsewhere in the wave...

The geometry is easier to understand and see (now you've pointed it out) than repeated attempts at counting. It's as if wave counting doesn't want to fit... it works in places but then it goes out of whack elsewhere.

It's definitely a case of S&R as you say - and horizontal S&R - that subdivides waves into phases of decline. It's not identical across the major patterns but its there... how simple, yet utterly perplexing, because it can't be nailed down
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,770
  • May 16, 2014 1:43pm May 16, 2014 1:43pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} I just checked that on the chart and its true in the major corrective waves and most of the minor corrections elsewhere in the wave... The geometry is easier to understand and see (now you've pointed it out) than repeated attempts at counting. It's as if wave counting doesn't want to fit... it works in places but then it goes out of whack elsewhere. It's definitely a case of S&R as you say - and horizontal S&R - that subdivides waves into phases of decline. It's not identical across the major patterns but its there... how simple, yet utterly...

Yes, it's somewhat empirical, and the following chart doesn't have any real EW count applied to it, but it's everywhere.
Those, 0.61 or 1.61 move followed by a corrective 0.38 move equal in time...
And if you look at the last doted line on smaller TF, may be H2, same pattern.
I'll explain by the psychology : <oh move down - bargain ! - wait not going up - sideway for too long- sell as a close as possible to buying price - move down - oh bargain ...etc>

http://i.imgur.com/xQ7Mqbu.png
  • #3,771
  • May 16, 2014 2:33pm May 16, 2014 2:33pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Yes, it's somewhat empirical, and the following chart doesn't have any real EW count applied to it, but it's everywhere. Those, 0.61 or 1.61 move followed by a corrective 0.38 move equal in time... And if you look at the last doted line on smaller TF, may be H2, same pattern. I'll explain by the psychology : <oh move down - bargain ! - wait not going up - sideway for too long- sell as a close as possible to buying price - move down - oh bargain ...etc> {image}
Thanks for drawing... amazing that your illustration is exactly what i understood from your first explanation...

The last dotted line where the same pattern is repeating on a smaller fractal scale... i think this is significant.

Looking at the chart now I notice that in many places a pattern repeats itself in smaller and smaller repetitions, for example here:

Attached Image


the "seahorse" shaped correction on the left half repeats 3 times in the curving wave on the right hand side (and then smaller again and again on the way down)

This is not nearly as empirical as what you're observing but the repeating pattern motif is standing out for me.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,772
  • Edited 3:08pm May 16, 2014 2:57pm | Edited 3:08pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Yes, it's somewhat empirical, and the following chart doesn't have any real EW count applied to it, but it's everywhere. Those, 0.61 or 1.61 move followed by a corrective 0.38 move equal in time... And if you look at the last doted line on smaller TF, may be H2, same pattern.
related to your 4-ii labels, here's another version (let's agree that the exact labels are not significant - you know how i like counting abc) - my "b" is your "4" and my "B" is your "ii".

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: stamp_same_annotated.png Size: 33 KB


the "seahorse" pattern in each light blue box is the clue... the first one is more compacted, but they're the same

I see that the preceding smaller pattern here is a fractal of the larger pattern that follows... and funny enough - if that was 3-4-5 of wave III then we can expect the current IV-V to play out the same pattern - and price is conforming to that initial "stepping lower" of wave C... (alternatively, this is still B completing but it's max height was set by the initial wave up)

I'm drifting away from your observation, which is measurable by ratio and in proportional time - our analysis today is different but similar somehow. The fact that BTC repeats itself is causing it to unfold in measurable pieces.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,773
  • May 16, 2014 3:47pm May 16, 2014 3:47pm
I think you are right, wave 4 and wave B have been very distinctive in btc history. They are almost always the complex and hard to define ones.
Bad luck for our patience, this seahorse and your associate wave structure (which is also my current EW count since last week) both imply that we are still quiet some time away from a reassuring wave 3...

In other words, If I can't quiet understand and situate the PA, I'd assume it's a wave 4 or a wave B. And in this context, both means more low to come.
So despite paying daily fees for my short, it feels like the safest position to be at.


EDIT: if you look between 20th of october 2013 and 4th november 2013, on H4 to H6, you can see a reverse bullish sea horse
  • #3,774
  • May 16, 2014 4:04pm May 16, 2014 4:04pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} Hi Ilikefx, As far as I know Forex Factory does not have trade explorer links to the Bitcoin exchanges that we've been using to trade here. At least, not for my own trade accounts. Even so, and take this in the professional context I intend, I don't think a cryptocurrency trade explorer would reveal anything more than the trade explorer for any other instrument, because trade is trade and the skills are built over time according to each individual's circumstances and psychology. If I did have trade explorers up for Bitcoin, it would show...
Thanks for your info.
  • #3,775
  • May 16, 2014 4:30pm May 16, 2014 4:30pm
Quoting lady_luck
I think you are right, wave 4 and wave B have been very distinctive in btc history. They are almost always the complex and hard to define ones. Bad luck for our patience, this seahorse and your associate wave structure (which is also my current EW count since last week) both imply that we are still quiet some time away from a reassuring wave 3... In other words, If I can't quiet understand and situate the PA, I'd assume it's a wave 4 or a wave B. And in this context, both means more low to come. So despite paying daily fees for my short, it feels...
I'm going to look at that over coffee in the morning (well, after some sleep )

I like your reasoning with wave 4 and wave B - because it's true these complicated and/or confused waves cannot be advance - so they must be corrective and soon to be followed by continuation in the "other" direction.

The Bitfinex daily fee also burns me but the potential downside makes up for the days of going sideways, eh?

enjoyed the chat, see you later, lady_luck!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,776
  • May 16, 2014 4:59pm May 16, 2014 4:59pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: up1.png Size: 23 KB

Attached Image
  • #3,777
  • May 16, 2014 8:03pm May 16, 2014 8:03pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} I'm going to look at that over coffee in the morning (well, after some sleep ) I like your reasoning with wave 4 and wave B - because it's true these complicated and/or confused waves cannot be advance - so they must be corrective and soon to be followed by continuation in the "other" direction. The Bitfinex daily fee also burns me but the potential downside makes up for the days of going sideways, eh? enjoyed the chat, see you later, lady_luck!
Thanks, that was a great chat. Good night.
And meanwhile, it seems LTC might show the way, one more little correction and we could see 9.2 soon after that.
  • #3,778
  • Edited 8:31pm May 16, 2014 8:15pm | Edited 8:31pm
this is btc china. breakout very close! tomorrow or today!
market at bottom of the 40 day and 20 day channel (hurst channel)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: up2.png Size: 30 KB


shorts get ready for a spiritual experience!
  • #3,779
  • May 16, 2014 10:51pm May 16, 2014 10:51pm
Quoting emptymind
{image} {image}
textbook expanded flat! - some wave counters say these are more common in the market than regular flats (where B is lower than the starting point of A)
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,780
  • May 16, 2014 11:08pm May 16, 2014 11:08pm
Quoting emptymind
this is btc china. breakout very close! tomorrow or today! market at bottom of the 40 day and 20 day channel (hurst channel) {image} shorts get ready for a spiritual experience!
hi emptymind,

road to damascus ... bright light...

lady_luck and I discussed this yesterday... most of the BTC markets passed through the decline TL, descended along it for safety and then made a lower high. So either the reaction will come on the retest of this line or some other chart feature is reached. For me, the psychology of advance - the aggressive bullish energy - is just not there. In fact the opposite: this market is moving like a bunch of scaredy cats on a log in the river!

here's BTCChina

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTCCHINA_LL.png Size: 44 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
0 traders viewing now