this is from the dow chart above. look closely it is similar to bitcoin
- #3,642
- Edited 10:22pm May 5, 2014 10:08pm | Edited 10:22pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
this is from the dow chart above. look closely it is similar to bitcoin {image} {image}
At first they didn't look similar to me at all, and then the more i looked, the more similarities between subwave structure i began to see!
The only thing that is different about them is that the expanding triangle in the Dow has a regular spacing between the waves. And BTC? I think there will be as many names as there are wave counters, but i'm calling it a flat ABC for now - although it looks very contracting triangle-ish to me now...
emptymind, you shouldn't worry too much about all of us finding different targets and counts and trying out different extremes and showing charts for those analytical exercises. Its very healthy and good for people to try different things and without feeling scared that people will laugh at them. For example your explorations with gnuplot and log plotting and price projection - finding figures like 10k and 100k gives us all something to think about and stretches our minds when thinking about BTC - because Bitcoin can do amazing and unprecedented things to charts and markets! So explorations are welcome and sometimes none of us agree and sometimes we all agree for weeks on end. Its just part of being in a group forum and having different personalities and interpretations of the crazy markets, isn't it?
It's the only instrument i know that has the ability to fulfill each and every one of our chart projections: going to near zero and to the moon in the same year
As lady_luck mentions, there are a few benefits to looking for targets lower, because if Bitcoin will go there then we can short the market for income, as well as buy more Bitcoins for cheaper.Your log chart (on which I drew TLs) helped me realize that there is a very real possibility that the bottom is in already. Its not 100% sure yet - remember, i would like to see a rise above the decline TL first - but the chance is there. Plus, i'm stubborn sometimes - only seeing what i want to see and not considering both sides equally - but it's not a crime: i'm working on it by adopting a neutral stance to bullish and bearish views.
I look at how KiwiOz and lady_luck never insist on a direction - and they're always willing to consider your and my opposite views.
cryptocurrency everytime
- #3,644
- May 5, 2014 10:27pm May 5, 2014 10:27pm
{quote} Yes, for sure, reversal patterns. At first they didn't look similar to me at all, and then the more i looked, the more similarities between subwave structure i began to see! The only thing that is different about them is that the expanding triangle in the Dow has a regular spacing between the waves. And BTC? I think there will be as many names as there are wave counters, but i'm calling it a flat ABC for now - although it looks very contracting triangle-ish to me now... emptymind, you shouldn't worry too much about all of us finding different...
- #3,645
- May 5, 2014 11:08pm May 5, 2014 11:08pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
cryptocurrency everytime
- #3,646
- May 5, 2014 11:12pm May 5, 2014 11:12pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
cryptocurrency everytime
- #3,647
- May 5, 2014 11:57pm May 5, 2014 11:57pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
Target Practice
KO, please comment!
I know the green projection is correct because that's copied from your BTC chart!
But the rest... did I even hit target once? or am I just firing shots into a thicket?
KO, please comment!
I know the green projection is correct because that's copied from your BTC chart!
But the rest... did I even hit target once? or am I just firing shots into a thicket?
cryptocurrency everytime
i just thought of something... i'm really getting a lot of hits for my analysis posted at CryptoCoinsNews. I guess Bitcoin fans really want to know what's happening with price, because my analysis articles just cause a flood of 1000s of people a day for a few days. Some of the comments are positive and constructive but there is also a large contingent of trolls as we see them at BTC-e trollbox and tradingview, etc. My concern is that they find us here, because i mostly use the same username at most websites. I like this forum the way it is - we...
I vote to wait and see how it goes, if it does start to happen we can always move
PS
http://newsbtc.com/2014/04/29/love-bitcoin-write/
go for it!
- #3,649
- May 6, 2014 3:16am May 6, 2014 3:16am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
{quote} Not sure too many BTC mentalists would go to the trouble of signing up here to cause terror, I think they'd probably go for more main stream sites first - and so far none have done so (right?!), and if they did - can't they get banned easily if they are a problem? I vote to wait and see how it goes, if it does start to happen we can always move
Thanks for the input, gjgjg, and for the link
How is everything with you? Do you use IRC on freenode at all?
I sometimes read BitcoinTalk - and a lot of critical info seems to drop there first - but I just don't feel at home there like i do here. I guess it must have been more community friendly in the early days...
cryptocurrency everytime
- #3,650
- May 6, 2014 5:56am May 6, 2014 5:56am
- | Commercial User | Joined Sep 2013 | 2,500 Posts
Target Practice KO, please comment! I know the green projection is correct because that's copied from your BTC chart! But the rest... did I even hit target once? or am I just firing shots into a thicket?
Venzen, your target practice is pretty good except for the pink one. Drawing from left to right for a down target you should have the left pinion point lower than the right. hardly ever works the other way around. Good effort with feasible & achievable targets.
If we have not bottomed out yet, I am targeting 220 with a solid bounce at 282. If we have bottomed out I cannot see price going below 370.
Money Makes Money
- #3,651
- May 6, 2014 6:08am May 6, 2014 6:08am
- | Commercial User | Joined Sep 2013 | 2,500 Posts
Money Makes Money
- #3,652
- May 6, 2014 6:42am May 6, 2014 6:42am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
{quote} I also believe that if Bitcoin is to go to heady heights, then wave one (of 3?) when it comes will be quite substantial. Probably around 900. The other scenario to that would be for Bitcoin to shag around ranging between 300 & 1000 for eternity.
Your point about Bitcoin shagging around is also something i htought about... it might have established range and then continue in regular commodity mode of extreme swings between 300 and 1000. Kind of like what's in the blue area on the lower left but just more longterm-shaggy-ish...
cryptocurrency everytime
- #3,653
- May 6, 2014 9:27am May 6, 2014 9:27am
i just want to say bitcoin is part of the global community. what happens when the dow starts to nose dive to 6K to complete its wave 4 ? where does all that cash go to hide? the us dollar is under pressure too so nobody want to stay in dollars... most will divert funds to gold/silver and even bitcoin. just a tiny percentage of escaping funds going to bitcoin will produce a massive move. bitcoin isn't living in a fish bowl by itself.
- #3,654
- May 6, 2014 9:36am May 6, 2014 9:36am
{quote} i understand cautious, but lets stick to the plan and have confidence in our count and the market channeling. we have to take reasonable risk and believe in our selves. you have a good memory! i was a terrible wave counter at that time in january. i improved greatly or atleast hope i did... im glad you and venzen didn't laugh me out of this thread
We all are master ew in training, it's subjective and interpretative.And it's nice to see that all of us have been finding our personal touch in the past few month.
Nice dow chart by the way. It make sens.
Venzen, about privacy, I'm not so worried about trolls. They have a big enough playground elsewhere. And I like to believe that our attitude, being friendly, would actually put them off in the same way as it did with Matic Kocevar.
What could be more worrying would be getting the attention of the BTC richest out there, loaded, goat, rptiela, adamsbit, mp... That could impact targets if they were to realize how good some analyst here are.
Hello KO, how are northern territory treating you ? I hope you are having a good time
The next couple of day will be interesting. Do you still have the feeling of the bottom was in ?
- #3,656
- May 6, 2014 10:57am May 6, 2014 10:57am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
cryptocurrency everytime
- #3,657
- May 6, 2014 11:30am May 6, 2014 11:30am
lady_luck, hi and good morning - you say it all in your post. emptymind, i like your dow explorations - keep going and if you get time also please check what a comparison with another commodity like gold reveals.
Interesting how the B is a trump. I remember when on the first chart we were both seeing waves up and a correction over. I develop everytime as a potential 5 wave impulse if looked at on the "wrong TF"
Then a sharp subwave down to the begining of c of B, and your alligator snout sideway toward the end of 1.
Followed by a sharp and short 2 to the .618 fib of 1.
I didn't explain more what I meant about your triangle yesterday, but in all those correction we only find fib .38, fib 1.61 and fib .61.
When added up trendwise and counter trend, they always add up to 1. Or the size of the previous wave in the same direction.
I believe same ratio applies on the time axis, so that could explain your triangle proportion ?
http://i.imgur.com/jb5fcYF.png
http://i.imgur.com/VqFHPuM.png
http://i.imgur.com/Z4M2IF9.png
edit : actual label or degree are not relevant here, AB, 1-2 and even 3-4 can be something else, it's the mechanism behind the regression and the proportion i'm interested in.
- #3,658
- May 6, 2014 11:33am May 6, 2014 11:33am
lady_luck, hi and good morning - you say it all in your post. emptymind, i like your dow explorations - keep going and if you get time also please check what a comparison with another commodity like gold reveals.
{quote} Thanks
- #3,660
- May 6, 2014 1:00pm May 6, 2014 1:00pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
{quote} venzen, nice colorful chart... i just want to understand....... none of the previous pink triangles hit their targets at the apex. so why should the last one do that?(im not sure what is the red dot.. is that a target?) this is what i found by chodpaba..... ( not directly... but quoted) {quote} i cheked the dates of some of the lows/highs... quite mostly accurate. maybe using some gann stuff or some other cycle techniq did she say EW is nonsense?!?! that's all i need to know!
the red dot... you're right, price didn't go to the pink triangle apex in any of the previous patterns, so there is no reason to believe it will this time... the only reason i put that dot there is because of the spike in the BTC-e price chart that went to the lower TL at 102... that _can_ happen again, so i was looking for a cozy spot for that dot to live and the triangle apex was nearby...
perhaps i should have put it slightly to the side, because anyone else viewing the chart will most likely also wonder: "why is that dot there at the apex? That never happened before!"
Did that person say "EW nonsense" ?! Why, the cheek of it!
cryptocurrency everytime