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  • #3,621
  • May 5, 2014 9:52am May 5, 2014 9:52am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Good morning everyone I've just experimented that, my laptop motherboard got overheated. Had to get an emergency netbook, and that thing is slower than my phone. I mean I can sit back and watch my sentences typing themselves in front on me ! Also a few keys doesn't work, probably due to a previous kb.dll file. Just glad PA didn't move too much and I could salvage all my password. But posting charts is going be a challenge. Anyway lot of interesting stuff has been said, I'll try to comment.
good to see you lady_luck.

Oh no... it's always a disaster when you suddenly lose a piece of technology - that's when you realize how much you rely on it - and how much of your life is in there!

So good to have you back and glad you could get the most important things out of the old laptop. My own posts won't be regular because my 3G connection is very bad today for some reason ... good signal, no rain, but just lots of dropping connections...

I made a chart for an article last night and I think it's interesting - not because I made it - but because there is a lot of information revealed with just a few geometric shapes and basic patterning. Will post in a few moments....
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,622
  • May 5, 2014 10:15am May 5, 2014 10:15am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Good morning everyone I've just experimented that, my laptop motherboard got overheated. Had to get an emergency netbook, and that thing is slower than my phone. I mean I can sit back and watch my sentences typing themselves in front on me ! Also a few keys doesn't work, probably due to a previous kb.dll file. Just glad PA didn't move too much and I could salvage all my password. But posting charts is going be a challenge. Anyway lot of interesting stuff has been said, I'll try to comment. Lots of interesting things about log function....
good morning LL, welcome back colega . all i know is don't leave your laptop on the bed, the vents can get blocked or something

i don't know where you get all that stuff from... you seem to be well informed about all subjects!

i've searched for Chodpaba's posts but all seem to be deleted by him/herself.
  • #3,623
  • May 5, 2014 10:27am May 5, 2014 10:27am
Thanks Venzen, Emptymind
I think it was due to a faulty power supply/electrical surcharge, It was sudden, and the thermo paste and fan are fine. The plastic is bend and the motherboard is fried. Black screen, no caps lock light flashing, and no sound when I remove the ram, so definitely the motherboard was faulty. Although screen and graphic card are fine. So I think it was electrical.

Yeah It's really hard to find more than fragment of Chodpaba method, best of luck when sometime people quoted his/her post.
Can't wait to see your chart Venzen
  • #3,624
  • May 5, 2014 10:29am May 5, 2014 10:29am
This is a BTC-e 4 hour chart and I tried to be as simple as possible. Perhaps some of the trendlines aren't needed.

Very interesting... the pattern is quite obvious and doesn't need explanation - the function of each instance of, say, the pink triangles, is the same - decline - even if the PA is slightly different each time. Also the other criterion i used was that the patterns must have the same outcome each time. So, for example the blue triangles always start from the bottom TL and retrace in 3 waves to the top TL.

Question is - is the current pink triangle going to have the same function and outcome as the previous ones? PA behaved oddly after the last yellow arc - it popped up above the TL, pulled back and then eventually HAD to go into the pink triangle - it may do similar tricks later on.

Right now PA seems to want to touch the top of the pink triangle. If it gets out then it may invalidate this as another instance of the pink group of patterns.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTC-e_H4_declinepatterns_5May2014.png Size: 199 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,625
  • Edited 11:18am May 5, 2014 10:48am | Edited 11:18am
Quoting venzen
This is a BTC-e 4 hour chart and I tried to be as simple as possible. Perhaps some of the trendlines aren't needed. Very interesting... the pattern is quite obvious and doesn't need explanation - the function of each instance of, say, the pink triangles, is the same - decline - even if the PA is slightly different each time. Also the other criterion i used was that the patterns must have the same outcome each time. So, for example the blue triangles always start from the bottom TL and retrace in 3 waves to the top TL. Question is - is the current...
That's interesting. Judging by eyes, look like all the triangle have the same angle, do they ? And have you found a similar ratio between base and height of the yellow arcs ?
And if you add the height of the second and third blue triangle is it equal to the previous pink ?
If so, it would mean that the next blue triangle would break thru the upper TL.

http://i.imgur.com/luIpKua.png
If you name the triangle A, B, A'... and their side a,b...
Look like the surface of
B+B'=A
B'+B''=A'
and the side of
c of B + c of B' = c of A
c of B' + c of B'' = c of A'
and if
b of A' + b of A'' = b of A
for next triangle to respect that, would the upper TL be broken ?
  • #3,626
  • May 5, 2014 10:55am May 5, 2014 10:55am
look like the last is not clearly valid ... maybe cause of a reverse ?
  • #3,627
  • Edited 11:46am May 5, 2014 11:30am | Edited 11:46am
Quoting venzen
...Right now PA seems to want to touch the top of the pink triangle. If it gets out then it may invalidate this as another instance of the pink group of patterns. {image}
venzen, nice colorful chart... i just want to understand....... none of the previous pink triangles hit their targets at the apex. so why should the last one do that? (im not sure what is the red dot.. is that a target?)


this is what i found by chodpaba..... ( not directly... but quoted)

Quoting chodpaba
After the original impulse from the run up to $266 on Wednesday, April 10, 2013 the unwinding of intermediate swings goes like this:
$50.01 Tuesday, April 16, 2013
$166.43 Wednesday, April 24, 2013
New net money actually came in for this, and after each swing is lower in volume than the last.
$79.00 Friday, May 03, 2013
$136.00 Sunday, May 26, 2013
$65.42 Friday, July 05, 2013
$124.94 Wednesday, August 21, 2013
Yes. I think It's done. If someone wants to do an EW fitting, or some such nonsense.
i cheked the dates of some of the lows/highs... quite mostly accurate. maybe using some gann stuff or some other cycle techniq

did she say EW is nonsense?!?! that's all i need to know!
  • #3,628
  • May 5, 2014 11:46am May 5, 2014 11:46am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} That's interesting. Judging by eyes, look like all the triangle have the same angle, do they ? And have you found a similar ratio between base and height of the yellow arcs ? And if you add the height of the second and third blue triangle is it equal to the previous pink ? If so, it would mean that the next blue triangle would break thru the upper TL. {image} If you name the triangle A, B, A'... and their side a,b... Look like the surface of B+B'=A B'+B''=A' and the side of c of B + c of B' = c of A c of B' + c of B'' = c of A' and if b...
Now that you point it out, i see what you mean... but wouldn't the triangles just progressively get smaller or something? I don't think i understand what you mean by "the next triangle to respect that" ... sorry i'm also tired so not too bright right now.

According to these TLson emptymind's log chart we are going up any moment now! Unless price breaks through the TL - but i doubt it. What do you think?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,629
  • May 5, 2014 11:57am May 5, 2014 11:57am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Now that you point it out, i see what you mean... but wouldn't the triangles just progressively get smaller or something? I don't think i understand what you mean by "the next triangle to respect that" ... sorry i'm also tired so not too bright right now. According to these TLson emptymind's log chart we are going up any moment now! Unless price breaks through the TL - but i doubt it. What do you think? {image}
nice observation venzen. i agree i like the title... you forgot to add your name for the TL work
  • #3,630
  • May 5, 2014 1:21pm May 5, 2014 1:21pm
Quoting emptymind
{quote} nice observation venzen. i agree i like the title... you forgot to add your name for the TL work
no problem abt the TL work - i posted it, so that part is clear - but wanted to acknowledge your log chart plotting work - nice clear chart!

There is a chance price could drop below the TL toward the lower 100s in a TL "underthrow" but we'll have to see - it's an outside chance but not to be ignored.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,631
  • May 5, 2014 3:27pm May 5, 2014 3:27pm
BTC-e log scale shows another support undercutting the longer term channel support. If the main channel gets breached, i reckon price will be on its way to the low $100s

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,632
  • May 5, 2014 3:30pm May 5, 2014 3:30pm
more detail of price action inside the wedge formed by the decline upper TL and the rising channel support (red)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,633
  • Edited 5:14pm May 5, 2014 4:29pm | Edited 5:14pm
Quoting venzen
more detail of price action inside the wedge formed by the decline upper TL and the rising channel support (red) {image}
It's an interesting perspective Venzen, to me 100, or below 260. aren't target, if we go there it would open the door for $32 which then would be my target.
But that's a very, very big "if" on my side
As you said, 420 has already opposed a good resistance, until a few hours from now, and by then the market might remember 360 is a bargain.

I found it interesting that on the same page we have $100 chart and $100 000 charts, it's kinda showing that we are not in a niche anymore but BTC isn't yet the Galactic Credit. So where are we ?
May PA soon tell us
  • #3,634
  • May 5, 2014 7:16pm May 5, 2014 7:16pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} no problem abt the TL work - i posted it, so that part is clear - but wanted to acknowledge your log chart plotting work - nice clear chart! There is a chance price could drop below the TL toward the lower 100s in a TL "underthrow" but we'll have to see - it's an outside chance but not to be ignored.
thanks a lot, i just typed: plot bitstamp so i give most of the credit to gnuplot for making me look good

Quoting venzen
BTC-e log scale shows another support undercutting the longer term channel support. If the main channel gets breached, i reckon price will be on its way to the low $100s {image}
remember what you said "Don't take any action in the market unless you're 100% certain of the outcome". im sure it applies from an ewp point of view also. im (we?) certain this is an extended wave 3 ever since the market took out the top of wave I at 259.34. it confirmed we are in a large degree wave 3. wave 3 is a trending pattern so it will channel well. there is no reason to doubt it. the market may play games and spike out of the channel but has no effect on the long term trend. don't let the 5 month downtrend influence your decisions. i would buy especially as the market get close and touch the channel you marked on the chart in a trending market. it may not look trending at the moment but looking at the larger picture there is no doubt it is. looking forward to reading your article
  • #3,635
  • May 5, 2014 7:24pm May 5, 2014 7:24pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} It's an interesting perspective Venzen, to me 100, or below 260. aren't target, if we go there it would open the door for $32 which then would be my target. But that's a very, very big "if" on my side As you said, 420 has already opposed a good resistance, until a few hours from now, and by then the market might remember 360 is a bargain. I found it interesting that on the same page we have $100 chart and $100 000 charts, it's kinda showing that we are not in a niche anymore but BTC isn't yet the Galactic Credit. So where are we ? May...
i just don't understand venzen with the 100 target or other low numbers. it doesn't make sens if you are following elliott wave. market is in a trending mode. in a large degree wave 3. if anyone count the waves it shows very clearly where and what the market is doing. so i don't understand why everyone searching for some low target when we should all be looking up and try to find where is wave III going to touch... 6K or 10K or whatever. that makes more sens to me
  • #3,636
  • Edited 8:17pm May 5, 2014 8:03pm | Edited 8:17pm
Quoting emptymind
{quote} i just don't understand venzen with the 100 target or other low numbers. it doesn't make sens if you are following elliott wave. market is in a trending mode. in a large degree wave 3. if anyone count the waves it shows very clearly where and what the market is doing. so i don't understand why everyone searching for some low target when we should all be looking up and try to find where is wave III going to touch... 6K or 10K or whatever. that makes more sens to me

Well I think there is a few reasons.

First on a short term (weeks) some can be bearish because there is some extra pips to be made there. In fact as much as if we went to 800.

On a midterm, it's a good way to improve a long position for the coming month. And increase future profits.

And then there is the cautious approach <we don't know what can happen>. If there is even a tiny chance that our wave count is wrong... Then what ? Well then to me it's $32, in term of EW it's the only target that make sens.

I actually remember telling you the exact same thing somewhere in January. Venzen and I were talking about prices going up and you were posting many charts with wave 3 of C going below $100 on Bitstamp.
Well my point from that time hasn't change, below $260 or below $100, was unlikely and still is. But it's an eventuality among others.
Neither, Venzen, you or I were wrong back then, same now, it's just that we all different agenda and level of caution in our approach.

As of my personal reasons ? Yeah,sure BTC is going up soon in a big fashion. Unfortunately when and how, I can't say.
On the other hand, I know for sure when rent is due next, and trading that wave down from 495 to 360 will be more helpful to make ends meet, than ignoring current PA and staring at the coming moon

Anyway, I wouldn't be surprise if tomorrow, i wake.up to prices below 400 on at least btc.e, I will reevaluate from there.
  • #3,637
  • May 5, 2014 8:24pm May 5, 2014 8:24pm
btc-e chart...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btc-e.png Size: 23 KB
  • #3,638
  • May 5, 2014 8:34pm May 5, 2014 8:34pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Well I think there is a few reasons. First on a short term (weeks) some can be bearish because there is some extra pips to be made there. In fact as much as if we went to 800. On a midterm, it's a good way to improve a long position for the coming month. And increase future profits. And then there is the cautious approach <we don't know what can happen>. If there is even a tiny chance that our wave count is wrong... Then what ? Well then to me it's $32, in term of EW it's the only target that make sens. I actually remember telling you the...
i understand cautious, but lets stick to the plan and have confidence in our count and the market channeling. we have to take reasonable risk and believe in our selves. you have a good memory! i was a terrible wave counter at that time in january. i improved greatly or atleast hope i did... im glad you and venzen didn't laugh me out of this thread
  • #3,639
  • May 5, 2014 8:44pm May 5, 2014 8:44pm
Quoting emptymind
{quote} i understand cautious, but lets stick to the plan and have confidence in our count and the market channeling. we have to take reasonable risk and believe in our selves. you have a good memory! i was a terrible wave counter at that time in january. i improved greatly or atleast hope i did... im glad you and venzen didn't laugh me out of this thread
Sorry, but at least for the very short term, the down trend are still perfect 5 wave down...

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  • #3,640
  • Edited 10:33pm May 5, 2014 9:04pm | Edited 10:33pm
LL, you were asking how... please take a look at the dow chart i just created.... look at the move from 1000 to 10000. that is what bitcoin will do in this wave III but in a more accelerated way. dow took i dont know 18 years or so... in bitcoin time... maybe 3 months?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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