By all means post your counts, but it really breaks my heart to see you count every retracement during a terminal bear market as 1-2 to the upside. Believe me, when that first wave up hits we'll know about it.
cryptocurrency everytime
- #3,601
- May 3, 2014 8:43am May 3, 2014 8:43am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
cryptocurrency everytime
- #3,602
- May 3, 2014 8:53am May 3, 2014 8:53am
the odds are impossible for 2 leading diagonals in a row of different degrees. market saying both are wave 1. i'll change my count if it invalidates.
also what are the chances of wave D (in my expanding triangle big picture) ends up slightly above wave b. again market telling us it's an expanding triangle
i'll repost to make it easy to see
also what are the chances of wave D (in my expanding triangle big picture) ends up slightly above wave b. again market telling us it's an expanding triangle
i'll repost to make it easy to see
- #3,604
- May 3, 2014 5:10pm May 3, 2014 5:10pm
just for my own research and to double check if kingtour's calculations make sens... i found an old DOW chart at ewprediction with his labeled wave counts. i was interested if i could estimate where wave 3 would top if i was there in 1948 for example....
i looked up the prices on stockcharts.com http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/hi.../djia1900.html
wave 1 ------------ 1932-1937 41.22-194.40
wave 2 ------------ 1937-1942 92.92
wave 3 ------------- top 1966 995.15 (actual top)
using waves 1 and 2 i tried to find the wave 3 using kingtour's suggestion
range of wave 1: 3.7189235755 - 5.269917892 = 1.5509943165
150% of 1.5509943165 = 2.32649147475
add it to wave 2 (4.5317389079) = 6.85823038265
e^6.85823038265= 951.68 (actual level was 995.15 ....quite close!)
i tried a few fib extensions such as 138.2%, 161.8%, 141.4%...... but found 150% to be the closest match
lets try this arithmeticly: (194.4-41.22)*1.5+92.92=322.69 ....not very close match to the actual wave 3 top
i had to double check this because i had to make sure it works... hope everyone is satisfied
i looked up the prices on stockcharts.com http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/hi.../djia1900.html
wave 1 ------------ 1932-1937 41.22-194.40
wave 2 ------------ 1937-1942 92.92
wave 3 ------------- top 1966 995.15 (actual top)
using waves 1 and 2 i tried to find the wave 3 using kingtour's suggestion
range of wave 1: 3.7189235755 - 5.269917892 = 1.5509943165
150% of 1.5509943165 = 2.32649147475
add it to wave 2 (4.5317389079) = 6.85823038265
e^6.85823038265= 951.68 (actual level was 995.15 ....quite close!)
i tried a few fib extensions such as 138.2%, 161.8%, 141.4%...... but found 150% to be the closest match
lets try this arithmeticly: (194.4-41.22)*1.5+92.92=322.69 ....not very close match to the actual wave 3 top
i had to double check this because i had to make sure it works... hope everyone is satisfied
- #3,605
- May 3, 2014 5:38pm May 3, 2014 5:38pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Sep 2013 | 2,500 Posts
Money Makes Money
- #3,606
- May 3, 2014 11:37pm May 3, 2014 11:37pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
cryptocurrency everytime
- #3,607
- May 3, 2014 11:38pm May 3, 2014 11:38pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
cryptocurrency everytime
- #3,608
- May 4, 2014 12:14am May 4, 2014 12:14am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
A lot going on at the present area on the chart and price is running up against the 200 MA as well as the Bollinger band mid-line.
In the next few hours price will reach a crossing of the dotted yellow downtrend TL as well as a long-term support level (deep purple). So much support makes a strong argument against price going below 425 but the cross-over (of these support lines as well as the 200 MA and Bollinger midline) may create a glitch in the support matrix and see price slip through the gap.
Annotations are quite small so consider clicking on the chart to see the conjunction zone in more detail.
BTW - addition of a 1000 perod MA shows price does respect this line at various timeframes - and it may well be the true dynamic resistance line that has been capping the decline since January
BTC-e H1
In the next few hours price will reach a crossing of the dotted yellow downtrend TL as well as a long-term support level (deep purple). So much support makes a strong argument against price going below 425 but the cross-over (of these support lines as well as the 200 MA and Bollinger midline) may create a glitch in the support matrix and see price slip through the gap.
Annotations are quite small so consider clicking on the chart to see the conjunction zone in more detail.
BTW - addition of a 1000 perod MA shows price does respect this line at various timeframes - and it may well be the true dynamic resistance line that has been capping the decline since January
BTC-e H1
cryptocurrency everytime
- #3,609
- Edited 10:25am May 4, 2014 5:52am | Edited 10:25am
{quote} emptymind, the result of this maths is very interesting, may be worth looking for other 1st and 3rd wave relationships in the BTC chart history. So, "e" is a constant?
wave 1 : 45 - 170.28
wave 2 : 63
wave 3 : 1163 actual top
wave 1 range: 5.137444141- 3.8066624898 = 1.3307816512
2.24*1.3307816512 = 2.980950898688
add it to wave 2 (4.1431347264) = 7.124085625088
e^7.124085625088=1241.51 it's not exact. i think best way is to compute the minimum extension for wave 3 which is 100% and wait for the market to reach that level and count the waves to see if there are any missing
2.24 isn't even a standard fib number
i believe the bigger degrees are best to use kingtour's method on my yellow wave numbers
- #3,611
- May 4, 2014 8:08am May 4, 2014 8:08am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
cryptocurrency everytime
- #3,613
- May 4, 2014 10:37am May 4, 2014 10:37am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
{quote} yes. seems good level for wave 2 retracement
i also sometimes add or remove content, so that's same-same... here goes anyway:If Bitcoin goes to 100k, i'll be so happy, i'll probably fall down knocked out with joy!
First thing, I'll build my mother her little dream house. Then I'll give away half to friends and family and with the remainder I'll buy 2 new laptops and as massive a solar installation as i can get.
Of course, I'll be sure to leave 0.01 BTC in my trading account to do it all over again!
cryptocurrency everytime
- #3,614
- May 4, 2014 1:07pm May 4, 2014 1:07pm
{quote} emptymind, I was going to answer your question, but by the time i clicked <quote> you had edited
- #3,615
- Edited 6:51pm May 4, 2014 6:00pm | Edited 6:51pm
i created this bitstamp chart in gnuplot to show 6K isn't far away and with a little more effort 100K is also a short distance away. just
use your thumb and index finger to measure wave 1 and reposition at wave 2... that's 100% of wave 1 which you can estimate near 6K....
6K is extremely conservative for the end of wave 3
please note wave III can overshoot and go much higher. the channel is just an estimate
use your thumb and index finger to measure wave 1 and reposition at wave 2... that's 100% of wave 1 which you can estimate near 6K....
6K is extremely conservative for the end of wave 3
please note wave III can overshoot and go much higher. the channel is just an estimate
- #3,616
- May 4, 2014 8:58pm May 4, 2014 8:58pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
i created this bitstamp chart in gnuplot to show 6K isn't far away and with a little more effort 100K is also a short distance away. just use your thumb and index finger to measure wave 1 and reposition at wave 2... that's 100% of wave 1 which you can estimate near 6K.... 6K is extremely conservative for the end of wave 3 {image} {image} please note wave III can overshoot and go much higher. the channel is just an estimate
It's feasible although unbelievable.Great that you made the chart - and with an open source tool - and looking at it i see the upside potential, however, it also highlights the fact that 5 waves may be in (as a higher degree wave 1) and that the downside has much further to go to complete wave 2. Not something I see any evidence for but a possibility we should bear in mind, because buying closer to 100 is one of those opportunities one just shouldn't miss if it presents itself.
cryptocurrency everytime
- #3,618
- Edited 7:44am May 5, 2014 7:19am | Edited 7:44am
this is a reversal pattern. here on the 2h chart
3 bottoms.... each time lower than previous
and also 2 tops.... the last top must be higher than the previous top shown
reversal!
this is a reversal pattern but on a larger time frame (daily). 3 bottoms. 2 tops (last one must be higher than prev top)
- #3,620
- Edited 9:54am May 5, 2014 9:20am | Edited 9:54am
{quote} Thanks for the update KO, and enjoy the trip! Sometimes its surprizingly good to be disconnected from the internet and everything that comes with it
I've just experimented that, my laptop motherboard got overheated. Had to get an emergency netbook, and that thing is slower than my phone. I mean I can sit back and watch my sentences typing themselves in front on me !
Also a few keys doesn't work, probably due to a previous kb.dll file.
Just glad PA didn't move too much and I could salvage all my password. But posting charts is going be a challenge.
Anyway lot of interesting stuff has been said, I'll try to comment.
Lots of interesting things about log function.
Fib function work the same on log scale, they are only using the Y axis, so as long as your software adapt <which you can confirm by checking that the fib are off center> it's ok.
What doesn't are two dimensional drawing tool, because the angle is different, a triangle, diagonal, or trend line would have different result.
If you want it to be the same as in a linear chart you have to curve your line.
As of log projection, as Kingtour said, it's hard to strictly use it to predict a price, since the Y value are recursive, you need to add a sequential filtering.
A user of bitcoingtalk <Chodpaba>, had a very good exp log projection system to estimate price, he was using a Bayesian model in addition to the functions.
In 2011, his model anticipated the april and November peak almost to the pip. Unfortunately he was so successful that it started to mess with his trading and he removed all the equations from his profile in 2012.