All Majors and Gold

thank u ukraine and us for giving me some nice losses today

or probably negatice factory orders effect

damn unemployment change...more so 1 million less participant ...killed the huge drop it would have taken.
I guess it wasn't only me who was tortured with this market.
c'est la vie and a 10km walk fixed the stress it caused....

go Raptors the true northern uprisisng

well well.....only if I only trade this....not enough mm for this long term wait.....still looking for 1.727x for 1.618% extension

gold view since apr 2013 drop

price range for one year 1430-1178
median price range is 133x-127x
-so we are currently in 133x-127x range...where we bounce of today at this bottom level
pay attention to the red tl as of today we are resisting the red tl....

Don't worry G, have nice pattern at 1.705, so still potential for bull and bear on this one.

Sir, sell in May still in effect right?

just sold gold @1310 tg 1290, 1279, 1264,n if close below 1270 then tg will be 1240 sl 1323

& if close above 1320 then sell risky then gold will move up for 1370....1440 ...let see what will happen with my gold

Can you add your analysis through Chart to have more clear picture?

here's current view on gold

current price 1306.55

m15- bearish with high about 1308.55
m30- still bullish but with tendency to be bearish breakout of about $20...high 1310.44
h1- bullish ranging from 1317-1297.42
h4- forming of right inverse shoulder lower bull range at 1297

right now I wait until I see a better direction but m30 is key to direction

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/educati...t-Balance.html


Can You Trade Forex Well with a Small Balance?
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1399357682
From dailyfx.com
http://www.forexfactory.com/resource...tory-quote.png
Talking Points -The Desire to Trade FX with a Small Balance -The Limits of a Small Balance -The Better Path Regardless of Risk “Ninety-five percent of the trading errors you are likely to make—causing the money to just evaporate before your eyes—will stem from your attitudes about being wrong, losing money, missing out, and leaving money on the table. What I call the four primary trading fears.” “Attitude produces better total outcomes than analysis or technique.” ― Mark Douglas, Trading in the Zone What’s the least amount I can’t start trading with? That’s a common question running through a ... (full story)

interesting article......

http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/ukraine-another-cia-coup


Ukraine Another CIA Coup
The CIA has been involved in the Ukraine for quite some time. CIA director, Brennan, visited the Ukraine in mid April to consult with this coup government. To understand what is happening in the Ukraine we need to put this into historical context. We need to understand that the CIA has overthrown dozens of governments around the world since World War II and that’s what happened in the Ukraine. It was another CIA coup. Just like the coup that overthrew Prime Minister Mosaddegh in Iran 1953, the coup that overthrew President Allende in Chile in 1973, and so many others.

John Perkins in his book, Confessions Of An Economic Hitman, reveals he was working for this program run by the international bankers who are the real powers behind the scenes in the west, to create a world straddling empire. Using the power of usury, that is World Bank loans and financial takeovers all over the world backed up by military power. So this is an aggressive attempt to seize the Ukraine by way of a US sponsored coup, and that is why the CIA is in Kiev right now consulting with their puppet government.

The same forces that overthrew the Ukraine, tried to overthrow the government of Syria, and failed. Their attempt in the Ukraine seems to be stymie, at least in part, by the wishes of so many people in the eastern side of the Ukraine. So I think this world takeover attempt may be slowing down or stalling. I wish President Putin and the rest of the forces who are standing against this all over the world te best of luck!

Kevin Barrett.





In Gold We Trust

interesting point of view on interest rate and gold prices

Sunday, May 4, 2014
U S Interest Rates Driving Gold Price ( along with Ukraine )
Sorting out the movements in the price of gold recently has been like guessing at the weather forecast. Geopolitical concerns, ( Ukraine ) are keeping a firm bid underneath gold as safe haven buying is focused on the potential for further escalations in those simmering tensions. Other factors are working to pressure it lower.

Having said this, I do want to post up a chart for those who are traders and are tracking fundamental factors driving the price of the metal.

I have mentioned many times now that I am of the view that US interest rates, and more accurately, interest rate outlooks, are either providing support to the metal or are working to add to headwinds.

Look at the chart below in which a comparison is made to the yield on the Ten Year Treasury Note and to the gold price over at the Comex ( RED LINE ).
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Q5Kh8cSGnb...0504225856.png


Go back to November of last year and notice that as the yield on the Ten Year rose, gold headed lower. When the yield on the Ten Year fell, gold tended to rise. The relationship had not been that close prior to November. If you look at the July - mid-October time frame, you can see that the two markets tended to actually rise and fall in harmony for a while.

Clearly in November the market shifted in its perceptions and began looking at interest rates more closely in determining whether or not to allocate capital into gold. For nearly three months, the markets moved in a near perfect inverse manner.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Q5Kh8cSGnb...0504225856.png


In early February of this year, that began to change and while the yield on the Ten Year moved sideways, gold prices rose. Then in mid-March interest rates began to rise and gold prices resumed their inverse relationship and moved lower once again. In early April, Ukranian events erupted and that brought about a safe haven bid into bonds knocking interest rates lower. Gold responded by moving higher. Then as fears subsided interest rates moved back up again and gold moved lower. So far in May, interest rates have continued moving lower as safe haven plays are still around due to Ukraine and gold has moved back above $1300 as a result.

Here is my point in all this - the wild card for gold prices at this time are the events in Ukraine. As long as investors are worried over events there, interest rates are going to stay low due to safe haven flows pushing bond prices higher and thus interest rates lower.

If Ukraine events do subside ( and right now that does not seem to be the immediate case ) I would look for interest rates to start rising again meaning that gold will come under renewed selling pressure.

Here is the takeaway from all this - as long as US interest rates stay subdued, the US Dollar is going to have trouble rallying and that should tend to support the gold price. Take away any safe haven buying for any reason, and rising interest rates should bring a bid into the US Dollar and that will pressure the metal.

What do we get next? Who knows? The truth is no one does. Remember that when the predictions start up again. The market's opinion is the only one that matters.
Posted by
Trader Dan at 11:03 PM

what would this do for the USA economy


Tuesday
May062014
Banks And Hedge Funds Make Curious Deal On New Structured Toxic-Waste Securities
http://www.testosteronepit.com/unive...ransparent.pngTuesday, May 6, 2014 at 1:56AM
The Federal Reserve Board announced in its Senior Loan Officer Survey for the first quarter that banks experienced “stronger demand” for commercial loans, and that they “eased their lending policies.” They eased everything: premiums charged on riskier loans, loan covenants, collateralization requirements.... The primary reason for the lower underwriting standards was “more-aggressive competition from other banks or nonbank lenders.” Fewer banks cited a more favorable economic outlook. And then there was an “increased tolerance for risk.”
It shows. The bank-lending bubble before the financial crisis peaked in October 2008, with total credit outstanding at all commercial banks at $9.56 trillion. When it all fell off a cliff, some of it turned into toxic waste and was written off or shuffled to the Fed in a maddening series of bailouts. It hit bottom in February 2010. Since then, it has been rising. In November, it started soaring at a similar rate as in mid-2008, the time when all heck was breaking loose. And by April 23, total bank credit hit the lofty all-time record of $10.4 trillion:
http://www.testosteronepit.com/stora...=1399354647980
But much of this borrowed money isn’t making it into the real economy, into plant and equipment, inventories, etc. It’s siphoned off by M&A activities and other forms of financial engineering, or by Wall Street alchemists to create some sweet-smelling substances, once again.
Turns out, banks have a problem, and these alchemists are going to help solve it. Banks carry on their books $136 billion in triple-A rated Collateralized Loan Obligations, the Wall Street Journal reported. These CLOs are similar to the triple-A rated mortgage-backed Collateralized Debt Obligations that turned into toxic waste during the financial crisis. But unlike their subprime-mortgage-backed brethren, CLOs are backed by junk-rated corporate loans, some of them malodorous “leveraged loans.”
PE firms use leveraged loans as a device to suck cash out of their overleveraged portfolio companies. These companies borrow money that they then, instead of investing it in productive assets, pay out as a special dividend to their owners. The procedure leaves the company deeper in the hole, the PE firm loaded with new cash, and the bank with a “leveraged loan.” The bank can then package that loan with other low-rated corporate debt into an enticing CLO.
Total outstanding CLOs in the US amount to $300 billion, of which $136 billion languish on the books of banks. So far this year, $35 billion in CLOs have been created, just a notch behind the $36.5 billion created in the same period in 2007, on the eve of the great bank implosion. An additional $16 billion are in the pipeline.
New regulations, designed to keep banks from imploding again, force banks to sell some of these CLOs over the next few years. But that has been tough. The threat of these regulations alone has put downward pressure on prices.
Our heroes at these banks have come up with an ingenious solution: lend money to hedge funds so that they buy these CLOs from the banks. A number of banks, including RBC Capital Markets, Société Générale, and our local bank here, Wells Fargo, are doing just that. To make the deals more attractive, banks have lowered rates and lengthened the terms of the loans – in line with the looser underwriting standards that the Fed reported in its quarterly survey.
Some banks have offered to lend as much as nine times the amount that the buyer would invest in the CLO. The risk? Even a minor downdraft in the market, multiplied by leverage, can produce breath-taking losses for hedge funds and force them to put up more cash or other collateral or dump some of these securities back into the lap of the bank ... and we’re right back to 2008, of forced selling into a suddenly illiquid market.
But there is an advantage: by lending hedge funds money to take these CLOs off their books, banks are hoping that they will create enough artificial demand to pump up prices, thus generating some paper profits, though banks would remain exposed to these CLOs via the loans. The advantage to hedge funds? If their collective buying does drive up prices even a little, their profits will be multiplied by leverage. At least until reality sets in.
These dizzying layers of leverage and risks, all based on junk-rated loans by already over-leveraged companies aren’t a problem, the Wall Street Journal tells us to soothe our tattered nerves. Because this time it’s different: “Overall, borrowed money is mostly being used to buy triple-A-rated CLOs, say bankers and investors. That contrasts with the run-up to the 2008 crisis, when huge sums were borrowed to finance bets on assets such as subprime mortgages....” Indeed, these mortgages had been sliced and diced and packaged into CDOs, whose infamous triple-A rating didn’t keep them from turning into toxic waste overnight.
For years, nothing could slow the tsunami of junk debt. But suddenly, something happened, and investors in leveraged-loan mutual funds, where the crappiest junk debt accumulates, ran scared and started pulling their money out. Consequences were immediate. Read.... Biggest Credit Bubble in History Cracks, Trips Up The Smart Money

update on this chart.......

look at red trendlines

my view on eur.usd

1.4047 target

Thanks for sharing great information!

Hi G,

there is also one on GU.

that's xau chart Scott

new low of 1303.70 waiting for more down....