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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #3,561
  • May 1, 2014 2:20am May 1, 2014 2:20am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} There may be a way around it........They accept Bitcoin account deposits so how are they to know where you live if you don't tell them.???? You won't be any better off trading wise than with Btc-e. They also charge spread & commission with a 1:3 leverage. But they have a nice chat portal & are in Kiwi land.
ok!

Thanks for the research, i have reservations about saying to you: "Hey, why don't you check it out and then I'll come jogging after if you like it" because the next thing is effing and blinding and cheese

pity about the 3:1, but i think Eastern Europe is about to get real tense and with BTC-e being untraceable and not having to answer to anyone they can just disappear with our money
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,562
  • May 1, 2014 2:35am May 1, 2014 2:35am
KO, you mentioned 464 a few days ago... i think this might be the eventual target, we're missing a strong verticalmove up for wave 5 at the moment.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,563
  • May 1, 2014 2:39am May 1, 2014 2:39am
Quoting venzen
{quote} ok! Thanks for the research, i have reservations about saying to you: "Hey, why don't you check it out and then I'll come jogging after if you like it" because the next thing is effing and blinding and cheese pity about the 3:1, but i think Eastern Europe is about to get real tense and with BTC-e being untraceable and not having to answer to anyone they can just disappear with our money
Yeah Btc-e worries me little. Gunna test the waters with FXopen.com. Like I said, the support portal was just that..Supportive & very friendly, even when I asked "stupid" & hard questions. Very up front. Brokers in such countries as Russia & Slovenia have to regarded with suspicion & extreme caution. They are not prepared to talk to you civilly let alone be upfront with their financial resources.
Pity. I toured through Slovenia in a motorhome a few years ago & found the country beautiful & the people very friendly. Guess there are bad apples in every country.
Money Makes Money
  • #3,564
  • May 1, 2014 2:46am May 1, 2014 2:46am
Quoting venzen
{quote} ok! Thanks for the research, i have reservations about saying to you: "Hey, why don't you check it out and then I'll come jogging after if you like it" because the next thing is effing and blinding and cheese pity about the 3:1, but i think Eastern Europe is about to get real tense and with BTC-e being untraceable and not having to answer to anyone they can just disappear with our money
Actually the 3:1 is livable. A deposit of $1000 will allow you to trade at about $5 to the Bitcoin. Which means you would make 5 times more than if you just bought $1000 worth of bitcoins & sat on them. Besides you can trade both ways & increase your stake as the you go along by adding at the dips...
Gotta wait for the bottom first though.
Money Makes Money
  • #3,565
  • May 1, 2014 2:54am May 1, 2014 2:54am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Actually the 3:1 is livable. A deposit of $1000 will allow you to trade at about $5 to the Bitcoin. Which means you would make 5 times more than if you just bought $1000 worth of bitcoins & sat on them. Besides you can trade both ways & increase your stake as the you go along by adding at the dips... Gotta wait for the bottom first though.
yes, trading CFDs with leverage makes much more sense. Maybe there is some thrill to holding actual Bitcoins (almost like owning "physical" PMs) but from an investment and trading point of view one wants tomaximize the return on your efforts. We have a good team here to deal with most of the curveballs the market throws and our combined analysis is 90% accurate most of the time - so our team efforts lower the risk. Plus the Bitcoin market is quite forgiving - often returning to levels at least once or even twice. So mistakes can be recovered.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,566
  • May 1, 2014 3:31am May 1, 2014 3:31am
BTC-e H1

Can PA get through that red 200 MA?

If it does it may spike as it did at label "B" - bringing us to a high of 460-464

Then a drop

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTC-e_H1_1May2014_b.png Size: 258 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,567
  • May 1, 2014 3:41am May 1, 2014 3:41am
Quoting venzen
BTC-e H1 Can PA get through that red 200 MA? If it does it may spike as it did at label "B" - bringing us to a high of 460-464 Then a drop {image}
The last retrace was 50% so this one should be either 38% or 61.8%. So far it has reached 38%
Money Makes Money
  • #3,568
  • May 1, 2014 3:45am May 1, 2014 3:45am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} The last retrace was 50% so this one should be either 38% or 61.8%. So far it has reached 38%
Price started the day on the Daily pivot at 437. There is a good chance it will return there in the next 12 hrs
Money Makes Money
  • #3,569
  • Edited 6:10am May 1, 2014 5:59am | Edited 6:10am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4.png Size: 12 KB

wave 3 should make it to minimum 452.16-424)*1.618+433.08 = 478.6
maybe wave 5 will extend if 3 was of normal size

everyone is waiting for one last "drop" i noticed... but please ask yourselves, has the market ever done what was expected?... please be cautious! the big picture expanding triangle looks very real to me and most cannot see it. it is hidden in plain site! i believe this is a slow starting stealth bull market and most active traders are positioned the wrong way
  • #3,570
  • May 1, 2014 6:24am May 1, 2014 6:24am
Quoting venzen
{quote} yes, trading CFDs with leverage makes much more sense. Maybe there is some thrill to holding actual Bitcoins (almost like owning "physical" PMs) but from an investment and trading point of view one wants tomaximize the return on your efforts. We have a good team here to deal with most of the curveballs the market throws and our combined analysis is 90% accurate most of the time - so our team efforts lower the risk. Plus the Bitcoin market is quite forgiving - often returning to levels at least once or even twice. So mistakes can be recovered....
im not leveraged because im not smart enough to anticipate every move the market makes and i do not trust the bitcoin exchanges. i own "physical" bitcoins, as you say, so that i can sleep at night slovenia, russia........ are these places supposed to make me feel "safe"? (no offense to slovenians and russians )
  • #3,571
  • May 1, 2014 6:38am May 1, 2014 6:38am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi emptymind, remember before i pointed you to the EWP textbook where they show at least 5 examples of diagonals lasting 3 - 4 months. i know you respect these web sources you quote and you obviously learn a lot from them, but they are wrong about diagonals. In the end who are "they" and what is Elliott Wave? They are no better than any of use here - they have the same EWP textbook and the single authority of Ralph Elliott to work from as us. That's why EW counters eventually realize that its all subjective, because it is an interpreted...
yes i do remember, sorry i haven't had the chance to look at the examples. but i have no doubt what you say is true.
  • #3,572
  • May 1, 2014 6:48am May 1, 2014 6:48am
Quoting venzen
{quote} lady_luck, chonchi, emptymind, kingtour please give your opinions too... In my view, KO, Bitcoin is the original and the best. These other coins have clouds of uncertainty hanging over them...
i like bitcoins because it was the first cryptocurrency to appear and gained my trust
  • #3,573
  • May 1, 2014 7:35am May 1, 2014 7:35am
Quoting emptymind
{image} wave 3 should make it to minimum 452.16-424)*1.618+433.08 = 478.6 maybe wave 5 will extend if 3 was of normal size everyone is waiting for one last "drop" i noticed... but please ask yourselves, has the market ever done what was expected?... please be cautious! the big picture expanding triangle looks very real to me and most cannot see it. it is hidden in plain site! i believe this is a slow starting stealth bull market and most active traders are positioned the wrong way
emptymind, hope you're well!

i think you're going to be mad at me, but you say everyone is waiting for one last drop and you caution that this may be a stealth rally developing... yes, absolutely and we cannot be certain which is the case. But one thing is for 100% sure, the only evidence that the downtrend is over will be when price heads above the decline upper TL currently at $500. Until then all we can be 100% sure of is that Bitcoin price is still in decline. Even an advance in 5 waves below that upper TL is not evidence of an uptrend since an A wave can be a 5 wave structure. But any breach - even in 3 waves of the upper TL, now we can start building long positions!

An old man taught me indicator trading years ago and he always used to say: "Don't take any action in the market unless you're 100% sure of the outcome."

I thought he was maybe going senile or just trying to sound like he knew what was going on, but it dawned on me one day, that there are certain things (and sets of things) that confirm trend. It is impossible for those things to be in place at the start of a trend, they take time to manifest, but when they do - you have to give it everything you've got! because now you can be sure.

If I say: "This is what is happening here" but i'm not 100% sure, am i not setting myself up to possibly be wrong?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,574
  • Edited 10:19am May 1, 2014 9:00am | Edited 10:19am
Good Morning,

Thanks Venzen for having my back, I didn't really felt offended although my comrade female tennis player might Glad to be part of the crew, and just wanted to share information with you and KO, I hope I didn't sound out of line.
Those cluster of websites and blog supporting each other, run by the same handful of people quoting each other as back-up, it always remind me of something my parents told when I was very little "don't ever let a banker do insurance !".

It would be a tough strike for LTC if BTCe were to find themselves trouble. May be it's why we are both getting those strange vibe about it.
And I'm really waiting for Kraken to start offering margin, it could be a great alternative to bitfinex.

We are now getting closer to .382 since the top of B at 501. This move up has some strength but no momentum. It doesn't feel like an impulse. I could see a leading diagonal (from a bullish perspective). But i mostly see the exhaustion of the bull. in a way that remind me a lot of the previous B wave at 900-1000 early january.

Remind me a lot of the LD from Jan, as mentioned by you, may a coming 5th to overshoot the TL
http://i.imgur.com/G6BVrmJ.png

And unrelated, it's probably due to a change in the feed/scale, but I've never seen the "flag" so clearly before even on log.
http://i.imgur.com/rb3ayVK.png
  • #3,575
  • May 1, 2014 10:42am May 1, 2014 10:42am
Quoting lady_luck
Good Morning, Thanks Venzen for having my back, I didn't really felt offended although my comrade female tennis player might Glad to be part of the crew, and just wanted to share information with you and KO, I hope I didn't sound out of line. Those cluster of websites and blog supporting each other, run by the same handful of people quoting each other as back-up, it always remind me of something my parents told when I was very little "don't ever let a banker do insurance !". It would be a tough strike for LTC if BTCe were to find themselves trouble....
hi lady_luck,

do you remember after the drop in December, how we were both expecting a small move up and then an final wave to 450 (was it?)...?

Here we are at 450, having been to 102 on a spike and 340 on a legitimate wave down... absolutely amazing... the relentless downtrend just erodes the market's sense of a good buying price. This wave up was from a 62% retrace of the wave from 340 to 550 - i completely missed that ... of course most people would have traded it as a potential end of wave 2. It might still come true, but i' getting the sense that a drop is needed to generate enough upward bounce to spark the rally.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,576
  • May 1, 2014 11:11am May 1, 2014 11:11am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi lady_luck, do you remember after the drop in December, how we were both expecting a small move up and then an final wave to 450 (was it?)...? Here we are at 450, having been to 102 on a spike and 340 on a legitimate wave down... absolutely amazing... the relentless downtrend just erodes the market's sense of a good buying price. This wave up was from a 62% retrace of the wave from 340 to 550 - i completely missed that ... of course most people would have traded it as a potential end of wave 2. It might still come true, but i' getting...
Yes, good memories
I posted the log chart with this intend.
I have no solid argument pro or against one count atm. That's why I'm glad to see Emptymind charts as a reminder of my own subjectivity.
Compare to the previous peaks correction this one has been a slow and steady decline.
Post 2011 was longer but sharper. And april had more attempts to break the upper TL. The first forcing to sell at a loss. The second giving more opportunity to break even.
As of today, those who bought over 700 have probably sold a long time ago. But for those who remain, a final move down seems to be the only way to shake the sell order waiting in the 500-600(btc), and 21-25(ltc). And allow BTC to directly bounce back outside this downtrend TL.
  • #3,577
  • May 1, 2014 12:15pm May 1, 2014 12:15pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Although, I wouldn't exclude seeing 458 on btce before the next move down...
Look like we are doing it...

If it break above 465, I might fold back again to wave 1-2 of an advance...
  • #3,578
  • May 1, 2014 2:50pm May 1, 2014 2:50pm
now a downturn... but is it a small (iii) or is it a small (c) before continuing higher?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,579
  • May 1, 2014 3:21pm May 1, 2014 3:21pm
Quoting venzen
now a downturn... but is it a small (iii) or is it a small (c) before continuing higher?
Well, PA spent the last few days bouncing off fib .236, now that it succeed, fib .382 just seems logical.
That would make this part of the correction a wave b of iv.
  • #3,580
  • May 1, 2014 4:38pm May 1, 2014 4:38pm
"Mornin' All.
Super strong target at 360...Which means the bottom may have been in at 340. This would make the current downturn from 544 wave 2 of 5 UP.....
Almost time to buy,buy, BUY.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusdh4.png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusddaily.png Size: 35 KB
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