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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #3,181
  • Apr 21, 2014 3:51am Apr 21, 2014 3:51am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Great article venzen & the price projections tie in very accurately with my Line projections. Of course a break above 580 will probably such targets.
thanks for the compliment!

I'm busy looking for a broker that will give me some decent leverage on Bitcoin trades. Any suggestions?

1:3 at BTC-e is OK but once the low is struck and uptrend begins there's no reason not to hit this instrument with 1:1000 since the downside risk will be so minimal that its worth putting $1000 on the line for.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,182
  • Edited 4:52am Apr 21, 2014 3:57am | Edited 4:52am
Quoting emptymind
i guess i have to teach everyone how to draw a line (joking!) in a triangle locate where the b wave and d wave are.......... join them together and extend line downwards... look for anything popping out of this line (breakout) i drew this line in microsoft paint & bitcoinwisdom line tool... both show breakout so i don't know what you people are thinking! {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
Ahoo!

so that's where our yardsticks differ... you're counting it abcde down from the top and i'm counting it AB-i-ii--iii-iv-C, which puts my trendline across labels ii and iv... so the angle changes and hence you've got a "protruder" on your chart!

If i my count is wrong (oh god forbid, please... no!) then i can relabel but right now i'm still waiting for price action to prove me wrong (oh my buddha, don't let this happen, please...)

You'll notice that i'm completely detached and serene about the whole thing which is a neat "professional trader" trick i learnt while calmy shorting away everything i owned on the Dow in 2012. My calm and faith in a reversal was informed by daily and weekly newsletters from Elliott Wave International who kept saying "The contrarian signals are screaming 'Market Top'" as they counted W-X-Y-X-Z and then on each new top added a traingle and another degree, like: W-X-(w)-(x)-(y)-Y-X-(w)-(x)-(y)-..(x)... And most of the media and forums were filled with the same ultra-bearish sentiment at the time.

Each new top cost me about $10,000 - sometimes more - and that is how to fritter away millions on somebody else's advice. So you can imagine how military I am about confirmation of a move.

The Dow is about 3,000 points higher than where the EWI count had it as "Stoopidly Overbought" and I reckon it's got another 3,000 points in the tank... I guess my point is that one should think for yourself and find a method that matches your outlook. Simpler the better. And also that consensus is often a contrarian signal, since the majority of market participants will always be wrong at critical junctures. So the bullish consensus for BTC, now, may be just such a condition. But be prepared for either outcome: up or down - and act only on confirmation.

EWI had, without their own knowledge of the fact, become a majority voice and EW itself a consensus tool. Consider that even Bloomberg has a daily EW analysis now! And the market will seek to frustrate the consensus view and with it change the underlying DNA of the waves that manifest. We can still use EW but it is not infallible.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,183
  • Apr 21, 2014 4:07am Apr 21, 2014 4:07am
Besides my bearish buddy KO's Magnetic Monki, and emptymind's Kanagawa waves, and lady_luck's bustin' 1950's elegance, I think this guy has the coolest avatar picture:

such composure, such charisma and the perfect friendly face for a Mod

Attached Image
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,184
  • Apr 21, 2014 4:27am Apr 21, 2014 4:27am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Great article venzen & the price projections tie in very accurately with my Line projections. Of course a break above 580 will probably such targets.
Based on my lines from BTC-e chart, I'd like to see it close to 550-580 first too, before being convinced of full on Bulltrend but it looks convincing as the last line of FIBO 21% defence was approached recently [$315] as we're above MAs now!

(sorry for the messy chart, blue lines and Prev week high are the resistance im looking at with bull trend marked by entry into green box, fingers crossed!)
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  • #3,185
  • Apr 21, 2014 5:10am Apr 21, 2014 5:10am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Ahoo! so that's where our yardsticks differ... you're counting it abcde down from the top and i'm counting it AB-i-ii--iii-iv-C, which puts my trendline across labels ii and iv... so the angle changes and hence you've got a "protruder" on your chart! If i my count is wrong (oh god forbid, please... no!) then i can relabel but right now i'm still waiting for price action to prove me wrong (oh my buddha, don't let this happen, please...) You'll notice that i'm completely detached and serene about the whole thing which is a neat "professional...
thanks for your comments and consideration. i believe anyone using btc-e to count waves will be at a disadvatage. it's like using futures chart instead of the s&p cash chart. often there are spikes from wave 4 into wave 1 territory on leveraged instrument that can be misleading and doesn't exist in the cash market. i would highly recommend nobody to count btc-e as it is a waste of time and unreliable. c'mon, that spike down to 102 is totally unbelievable. it seems just "painted" to trigger stop loss orders......... regarding the DOW... best way to analyse it is using cycles because it's super tricky to count it in my experience. i've heard top in june and bottom for gold. that will be a "major" top lasting yearsssssssss
  • #3,186
  • Apr 21, 2014 5:18am Apr 21, 2014 5:18am
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  • #3,187
  • Apr 21, 2014 5:27am Apr 21, 2014 5:27am
Quoting emptymind
{quote} thanks for your comments and consideration. i believe anyone using btc-e to count waves will be at a disadvatage. it's like using futures chart instead of the s&p cash chart. often there are spikes from wave 4 into wave 1 territory on leveraged instrument that can be misleading and doesn't exist in the cash market. i would highly recommend nobody to count btc-e as it is a waste of time and unreliable. c'mon, that spike down to 102 is totally unbelievable. it seems just "painted" to trigger stop loss orders......... regarding the DOW... best...
emptymind, your single-minded self-belief is amazing. You're one of a kind!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,188
  • Apr 21, 2014 5:35am Apr 21, 2014 5:35am
Quoting venzen
{quote} emptymind, your single-minded self-belief is amazing. You're one of a kind!
thanks? ever since i was convinced this is a giant wave 4 triangle...... counting from the end of wave d. my count had never been invalidated along the way so i see no reason not to believe this is not an impulse wave.
  • #3,189
  • Apr 21, 2014 6:12am Apr 21, 2014 6:12am
wave 1 is 46.53 points long (516.53-470)... so a normal wave 3 would be 161.8% of that
which give us a target of 46.53 * 1.618 + 490 (wave 2 low) = 565.2 (minimum target for 3)

however, wave 3 will most likely be extended ....my guess would be 261.8% of 1. if that's the case then a target of
46.53 * 2.618 + 490 = 611.8 . that is just wave 3 (extended).......... don't forget of wave 5 remains to complete the first impulse wave up from wave e
  • #3,190
  • Edited 6:46am Apr 21, 2014 6:30am | Edited 6:46am
Quoting venzen
{quote} thanks for the compliment! I'm busy looking for a broker that will give me some decent leverage on Bitcoin trades. Any suggestions? 1:3 at BTC-e is OK but once the low is struck and uptrend begins there's no reason not to hit this instrument with 1:1000 since the downside risk will be so minimal that its worth putting $1000 on the line for.
Broker with decent leverage is what I'm looking for too. Btc-e with crap leverage PLUS commision is just that "crap"
I'm waiting with baited breath for NY exchange to get involved. perhaps then more brokers will get involved.
Money Makes Money
  • #3,191
  • Apr 21, 2014 7:08am Apr 21, 2014 7:08am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Broker with decent leverage is what I'm looking for too. Btc-e with crap leverage PLUS commision is just that "crap" I'm waiting with baited breath for NY exchange to get involved. perhaps then more brokers will get involved.
about an hour ago a service agent at InstaForex told me they did BTC at 1000:1 leveage. Yay! i thought but then after applying for an account i discovered they don't do BTC anymore

so now i'm trying the MT4 demo at http://www.bit4x.com
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,192
  • Apr 21, 2014 7:16am Apr 21, 2014 7:16am
why would anyone want 1:1000 leverage?

let me understand, if you have 1000 dollars.. you will control 1,000,000 of purchasing power?
so if the market drops 0.1% you are wiped out... is this correct?
normal markets move up and down more than that..
what am i missing?
  • #3,193
  • Apr 21, 2014 7:30am Apr 21, 2014 7:30am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Broker with decent leverage is what I'm looking for too. Btc-e with crap leverage PLUS commision is just that "crap" I'm waiting with baited breath for NY exchange to get involved. perhaps then more brokers will get involved.
I didnt do any research into them myself, but theres a new player coming into the market soon:
https://www.coinsetter.com/

might be an option, but again i didnt check any info on them, could be crap
  • #3,194
  • Apr 21, 2014 7:38am Apr 21, 2014 7:38am
Quoting emptymind
why would anyone want 1:1000 leverage? let me understand, if you have 1000 dollars.. you will control 1,000,000 of purchasing power? so if the market drops 0.1% you are wiped out... is this correct? normal markets move up and down more than that.. what am i missing?
your example is true, but that is why one shouldn't open a full position at that kind of leverage., you have to build it and enter at the opportune wave positions:

start of wave (3) of 3
start of wave (iii) of (3)
etc

if you get it right, you add several digits to your account balance.

if you're wrong, you potentially lose $1000, unless you employ hedging, which requires some management, but your wave counting mistake doesn't necessarily flush your account.

It is a high risk strategy, but there are more dangerous and tragic things in life than losing $1000.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,195
  • Apr 21, 2014 8:00am Apr 21, 2014 8:00am
Quoting gjgjg
{quote} I didnt do any research into them myself, but theres a new player coming into the market soon: https://www.coinsetter.com/ might be an option, but again i didnt check any info on them, could be crap
I've just signed up for their beta offering, so when it's available i'll try it out!

with all that "wall street" and flag waving, i hope they don't expect an x-ray of my tonsils before i can trade
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,196
  • Apr 21, 2014 8:39am Apr 21, 2014 8:39am
Quoting venzen
{quote} I've just signed up for their beta offering, so when it's available i'll try it out! with all that "wall street" and flag waving, i hope they don't expect an x-ray of my tonsils before i can trade
Why, what are you hiding in your tonsils?!
  • #3,197
  • Edited 9:29am Apr 21, 2014 9:15am | Edited 9:29am
Quoting venzen
Besides my bearish buddy KO's Magnetic Monki, and emptymind's Kanagawa waves, and lady_luck's bustin' 1950's elegance, I think this guy has the coolest avatar picture: such composure, such charisma and the perfect friendly face for a Mod {image}
Hahaha
Good morning,

What do you think of bitfinex ? I don't often do leverage, they had 1:5 in feb, now it's only 1:2 (i think), it was 1:10 once, it always changes with them...

So far PA did almost what I expected yesterday morning, 515 instead of 507, and 490 instead of 488... Will see what's next, if it doesn't go up from here, today, i might revise my views.
  • #3,198
  • Apr 21, 2014 9:33am Apr 21, 2014 9:33am
Quoting gjgjg
{quote} Why, what are you hiding in your tonsils?!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,199
  • Apr 21, 2014 9:35am Apr 21, 2014 9:35am
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Hahaha Good morning, What do you think of bitfinex ? I don't often do leverage, they had 1:5 in feb, now it's only 1:2 (i think), it was 1:10 once, it always changes with them... So far PA did almost what I expected yesterday morning, 515 instead of 507, and 490 instead of 488... Will see what's next, if it doesn't go up from here, today, i might revise my views.
hi L_L

theyre ok, you know - strange language and concepts, but i'll soon get a handle on it. trying a small trade just to see how it goes from open to close.

they use Bitstamp price, isn't it?

Glad you're getting the reactions from PA that you expected - dance on
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,200
  • Apr 21, 2014 9:37am Apr 21, 2014 9:37am
people, that's it for me today.

I'm unwell and need to recuperate.
cryptocurrency everytime
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