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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #3,141
  • Apr 19, 2014 8:11pm Apr 19, 2014 8:11pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Yours too L_L.. My daily chart 1st half is nothing like yours & venzen's.. {image}
Hi, good (australian) morning

Awe, It's just because it's a log chart, if you are also using trading view, you can change it in settings.
Thanks for you other answer before. Make more sens now

edit
Is your target 410 something (yellow arrow on the right ?)
  • #3,142
  • Apr 19, 2014 8:23pm Apr 19, 2014 8:23pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} Hi, good (australian) morning Awe, It's just because it's a log chart, if you are also using trading view, you can change it in settings. Thanks for you other answer before. Make more sens now edit Is your target 410 something (yellow arrow on the right ?)
Cheers......410 is the "speed bump. 250 is the target.........I have been trying to find a pattern on the daily, 1h & 4h showing any indication of a target to the North. Can't see one yet....Anyone owning Bitcoins should be selling them & waiting for confirmation of a move North or waiting to buy in again at the bottom.
Will continue to seek a sign for a move North.
Money Makes Money
  • #3,143
  • Apr 20, 2014 12:10am Apr 20, 2014 12:10am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Hi venzen......Where did you get this chart.?/ It shows details no other chart I can find has...
Hi KO,

Yes, as L_L says its a tradingview chart: Daily TF, log scale (bottom right hand corner just above "Publish Idea" button, or in chart settings) and then to show more history i use the mouse wheel to contract and expand time. You can also left-click in the right-hand price scale margin and compact and expand the chart vertically.

Not sure if that's what you mean by "more detail" but all else about my chart is just standard settings.

v
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,144
  • Edited 1:02am Apr 20, 2014 12:48am | Edited 1:02am
The current wave up reminds me of a familiar pattern in the Gold chart from a few months ago. KiwiOz will remember this very odd time in XTrade's XAU thread when we were expecting a move up or down but Gold was actually just busy setting up the large sideways range it is still in.

I've circled (in red) the two patterns that resemble (to my eyes anyway) the current Bitcoin wave to the upside. I've relabeled everything on the left of the chart so the degree labels do not really correspond to what's on the righthand side.

Gold Nov 2013

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold_21Nov2013_recount.png Size: 373 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,145
  • Apr 20, 2014 1:09am Apr 20, 2014 1:09am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Cheers......410 is the "speed bump. 250 is the target.........I have been trying to find a pattern on the daily, 1h & 4h showing any indication of a target to the North. Can't see one yet....Anyone owning Bitcoins should be selling them & waiting for confirmation of a move North or waiting to buy in again at the bottom. Will continue to seek a sign for a move North.
We're about to hit your 510 target at the end of this diagonal and then probably a violent move down - as is the way after a diagonal.

Quick! Quick! Let me sell my stash!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,146
  • Apr 20, 2014 2:00am Apr 20, 2014 2:00am
running flat gives hint of powerful up move
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,147
  • Apr 20, 2014 2:55am Apr 20, 2014 2:55am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Hi KO, Yes, as L_L says its a tradingview chart: Daily TF, log scale (bottom right hand corner just above "Publish Idea" button, or in chart settings) and then to show more history i use the mouse wheel to contract and expand time. You can also left-click in the right-hand price scale margin and compact and expand the chart vertically. Not sure if that's what you mean by "more detail" but all else about my chart is just standard settings. v
Thanks L_L & venzen. Will be interesting to see if my method works with log scale charts.
Can you explain the difference between a log scale chart & a standard chart...Thanks
Money Makes Money
  • #3,148
  • Apr 20, 2014 3:00am Apr 20, 2014 3:00am
after breakout of downtrend.... we get retest of this line.... sometimes old school ways are best
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,149
  • Apr 20, 2014 3:04am Apr 20, 2014 3:04am
i don't know why would anyone sell after a breakout from downtrend. this is a buy signal and its great to buy on retest of this line
  • #3,150
  • Apr 20, 2014 3:40am Apr 20, 2014 3:40am
wake up people... market is not going to show you a neon sign flashing with the word "BUY BUY BUY"... massive downtrend line breakout and people still expecting the same trend to resume?!?

new trend confirmed by old school method
new trend confirmed by elliott wave triangle abcde completing

  • #3,151
  • Apr 20, 2014 4:02am Apr 20, 2014 4:02am
Quoting emptymind
wake up people... market is not going to show you a neon sign flashing with the word "BUY BUY BUY"... massive downtrend line breakout and people still expecting the same trend to resume?!? new trend confirmed by old school method new trend confirmed by elliott wave triangle abcde completing
I'd tend to agree with you that the up direction will stay the course now, the only indicator I can add for the moment is the Weekly chart BB:

(Im not a BB expert, but BTC seems to be more or less sticking to the rules withthem
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,152
  • Apr 20, 2014 4:11am Apr 20, 2014 4:11am
Quoting gjgjg
{quote} I'd tend to agree with you that the up direction will stay the course now, the only indicator I can add for the moment is the Weekly chart BB: (Im not a BB expert, but BTC seems to be more or less sticking to the rules withthem {image}
interesting!
2 confirmed bulls vs sea of bears... i wonder which side market will take?
  • #3,153
  • Apr 20, 2014 5:18am Apr 20, 2014 5:18am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Thanks L_L & venzen. Will be interesting to see if my method works with log scale charts. Can you explain the difference between a log scale chart & a standard chart...Thanks
KO,

Logarithmic (Log) scale is simply a log function applied to the Y-axis of the chart. So as you go from, say, 100 to 200 the chart objects will look twice as big as they do between 200-300. And so on as you go higher. So the scale just reverse-exponentially (well, logarithmically!) becomes smaller the higher the price.

Similarly, your chart drawings should adjust size as you drag them higher and lower on a log scale chart. This is true for Tradingview anyway.

What makes log scale useful is that it allows one to see the BTC market action between 100 and 1000 at the same time as market action between $10 and $100, since the price action at smaller prices will look bigger and will not be dwarfed by the price action at higher prices - as happens in standard 1:1 scale.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,154
  • Edited 10:05am Apr 20, 2014 9:35am | Edited 10:05am
http://i.imgur.com/53botr1.png
http://i.imgur.com/XN6EOJy.png
http://i.imgur.com/ZrccWHY.png
http://i.imgur.com/FtcHT9w.png



Hello
I hope you see some sort logic here..
  • #3,155
  • Apr 20, 2014 10:37am Apr 20, 2014 10:37am
Quoting lady_luck
{image} {image} {image} {image} Hello I hope you see some sort logic here..
Hi lady_luck,

At first I didn't know what's going on because first emptymind was talking about a break of a massive trendline and then you showed the pictures of 3 diff markets - each with a clear breach of the decline TL, but I don't have this on any of my charts...

Then I realized: I've got everything in log scale..... so I changed to 1:1 scale... but nothing changed! I don't have a break of the TL even for the Russian Roubl ... am i drawing my TLs differently? If anything - switching to 1:! in BTC-e made the decline look more like an ending diagonal than it did in log scale. I've relabeled BTC-e chart to reflect this - and will just disregard that spike down as a random anomaly with no wave counting significance.

This still has me expecting additional lows until that TL is broken to the upside. But how are we not seeing the same thing with respect to the TL?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTCe_20Apr2014.png Size: 183 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,156
  • Edited 11:49am Apr 20, 2014 10:52am | Edited 11:49am
I think it's because I've zoom in more and choose a sligthly different angle, closer to the PA and with more point of contact (EDIT : specifically on the resistance upper TL, the support bottom TL stay weak either way. showing I think more attempt to go up than to really go down).
That can also induce me to see false break out, but make more sens to me on a daily/weekly chart. So I used the Open/close instead of high/low. Since we had a lot of anomalies in those. It's not just disregarding the extreme, it also give a more restrictive area for PA and stronger resistance/support.
I can't say It's the right thing to do, but it make sens to me. I don't think a 1h spike to let say 200 would be as significant in term of TL as a weekly candle before and an other one after spent strictly in the 400 area for exemple. Well at least, not on such TF, not with such amplitude already...

Strangely it's the opposite for me, switching to Log scale gives me a chart pointing down, with PA still closed up inside my narrower line.
But a trendline shouldn't be straight (but slightly curved) on log scale, does it ?

Also, I have consider the "plateau" after B waves as wave 1 and 2 of C, in all cases (make sens in relation to time). That could explain some other differences ?


EDIT :
I'm still looking at 485 on stamp as a confirmation level, as long as it hold, this work for me as wave 1 / wave 2 ; wave i /wave ii (or 3/4 and iii/iv depending on the subwave count).

http://i.imgur.com/rYHsEhU.png
  • #3,157
  • Apr 20, 2014 12:05pm Apr 20, 2014 12:05pm
Quoting lady_luck
I think it's because I've zoom in more and choose a sligthly different angle, closer to the PA and with more point of contact (EDIT : specifically on the resistance upper TL, the support bottom TL stay weak either way. showing I think more attempt to go up than to really go down). That can also induce me to see false break out, but make more sens to me on a daily/weekly chart. So I used the Open/close instead of high/low. Since we had a lot of anomalies in those. It's not just disregarding the extreme, it also give a more restrictive area for PA...
I also notice distortion when I zoom - obviously not of the price candles but any drawing objects made at different timeframes or when zoomed out further. So that's a shortcoming of the software and nothing we can do about it really...

Yeah, i also count the plateau as 1-2 and what we have now is either that or a wave 2 before pushing out clearly above that decline TL.

Edit: Well actually, I don't consider the advance from below 400 as a wave 1 - why? - because it doesn't "channel". An impulse/diagonal will usually unfold between clear parallel channel lines and that is how it can be distinguished from an ABC move that pushes with some force. This is not really a hard rule, but something I use as a reference - not sure how successfully or correct! Anyhow, I would prefer price to continue up but I'm ready for whatever at this point. Who would have thought the mighty Bitcoin would hang around $500 like a lost drunk man?

Here's an article of mine just published: http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/...lue/2014/04/20

Have a look at the last section "Closer Look" for an example of a Martingale strategy here at the lows. Tell me what you think.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #3,158
  • Edited 12:33pm Apr 20, 2014 12:19pm | Edited 12:33pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} I also notice distortion when I zoom - obviously not of the price candles but any drawing objects made at different timeframes or when zoomed out further. So that's a shortcoming of the software and nothing we can do about it really... Yeah, i also count the plateau as 1-2 and what we have now is either that or a wave 2 before pushing out clearly above that decline TL. Here's an article of mine just published: http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/...lue/2014/04/20 Have a look at the last section...
I'm doing pretty much the same. I'm using 17% and 13% of my holding (btc or fiat) for buying/selling. The first is the most aggressive option. The second is more conservative. I usually divide those in two, half below and half above a significant fib. And i place those every time the price half or double from a significant low or high.

I do that with about 60% of my holding (fiat and BTC). Buying and selling continuously despite my analysis. When I have more position piling up on one side I add those fund (btc or fiat) to my trading.
Which now represent about 40%.

EDIT : very good article, as always
  • #3,159
  • Apr 20, 2014 1:38pm Apr 20, 2014 1:38pm
Hello, i have been following this thread for a while and learnt some things along the way. I'm currently starting to learn TA and this Elliot Wave thing has got in to me. I hope i can soon participate and who knows, maybe even help.



By the way very nice article Mr venzen, very helpful for someone new as me.
  • #3,160
  • Edited 2:01pm Apr 20, 2014 1:46pm | Edited 2:01pm
Quoting lady_luck
{quote} I'm doing pretty much the same. I'm using 17% and 13% of my holding (btc or fiat) for buying/selling. The first is the most aggressive option. The second is more conservative. I usually divide those in two, half below and half above a significant fib. And i place those every time the price half or double from a significant low or high. I do that with about 60% of my holding (fiat and BTC). Buying and selling continuously despite my analysis. When I have more position piling up on one side I add those fund (btc or fiat) to my trading. Which...
sure - it helps to ease into positions. making a hard call that "this is the reversal so i'm opening my full position here" is too rigid and just creates too much stress about being right and all the other things like becoming attached to a trade and so on.

edit: and adding to your position, as you say, at Fib levels is a very sensible thing to do - i wanted to put that in the article but it would require too much additional writing!

i generally open 20% positions (of what will be my full trade in any direction) - one where I think the reversal is, one where the reversal actually happens and then another on the retracement and a final 40% on the push beyond this whole messy 1-2, A-B (or 3-4) area. That's the blueprint and it's been working well for me.

Opening a hedge is just the full size (of whatever is already open) but in the opposite direction, because by matching the full size there is no additional margin cost.

Thanks for the compliment about the article. The analysis and forecasts are good as far as technical articles go, but my editor unfortunately named it "Longterm Analysis of the Bitcoin Value" which is doesn't really motivate anyone to click on it I think. I suggested he change it but sometimes people are stubbornfor their own reasons.
cryptocurrency everytime
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